Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the year-end in a base case scenario or surge as much as $199,000 in a bullish case backed by increasing demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to Citi analysts.
In a bearish scenario, influenced by weaker macroeconomic conditions, the analysts project that Bitcoin could fall to around $64,000.
Citi’s forecast is driven by three main factors: user adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and ETF demand.
The analysts project a 20% increase in Bitcoin user growth, which on its own supports a price of approximately $75,000.
Macroeconomic factors, including soft equity and gold performance, subtract an estimated $3,200 from the price outlook.
Citi estimates that $15 billion in ETF inflows could contribute roughly $63,000 to the price. ETF demand now accounts for over 40% of Bitcoin's recent price variation.
The forecast is skewed to the upside due to faster-than-expected ETF inflows and persistent user activity, suggesting stronger network effects, the firm added.
Buy and hold strategy
Rising user adoption is being reflected in the number of companies incorporating Bitcoin into their treasury strategies
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR), remains the largest public corporate bitcoin holder with nearly 600,000 Bitcoin, maintaining a bold "mine-and-hold" treasury approach.
Galaxy Digital (TSX-V:GLXY) combines asset management with its extensive mining operations and currently holds over 8,100 BTC, while Marathon Digital owns about 48,000 BTC and integrates mining production directly into its treasury accumulation.
Earlier this week, Blockmate Ventures Inc (TSX-V:MATE, OTCQB:MATEF) announced its inaugural bitcoin purchase for its newly launched treasury division.
Domenic Carosa, Blockmate Ventures' chairman, told Proactive the company’s long-term strategy is to buy and mine Bitcoin, hold them and generate a yield. “There will be some announcements coming out shortly around how we’re looking to generate yield with our Bitcoin and then ultimately letting that grow over time,” he said.
Miners drive network strength
Carosa highlighted how this the company’s treasury strategy complements the company’s Bitcoin mining operation. The company’s mining arm operates at an ultra-low electricity cost site in Wyoming which is capable of scaling to a 200 MW operation, potentially producing around 200 Bitcoin per month at a favorable cost.
“Given our cost-effective electricity costs, we will be able to, when we are fully operational, mine Bitcoin at roughly a 40% discount to the current spot price,” he said.
“So, it makes a lot of commercial sense for us, not only just to go and buy Bitcoin and hold, but to actually mine it because we can mine it at a price that’s a material discount to the current spot price.”
This is just one example of how Bitcoin miners are playing a pivotal role in securing the Bitcoin network and influencing supply dynamics.
Marathon Digital aims to reach 75 Exahash (EH/s) by the end of 2025 while holding nearly 50,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) is a large Bitcoin miner in Texas with about 12.6 EH/s capacity and plans to grow by building a 1 gigawatt facility using energy-efficient cooling.
Meanwhile, HIVE Digital Technologies (TSX-V:HIVE, NASDAQ:HIVE) is aggressively scaling its footprint, aiming to quadruple operations in 2025 and secure approximately 3% of the global bitcoin mining network.
Leveraging hydroelectric power, HIVE is focused on sustainability alongside growth, targeting 25 EH/s by year-end and improving efficiency to lower its production costs.
This week the company announced that it has surpassed 13 EH/s, mining more than 6.5 Bitcoin daily since achieving this milestone. Executive chairman Frank Holmes told Proactive this week that HIVE is expanding its EH/s rate every few weeks, expecting to hit 18 EH/s by the end of August.
He added that the company’s efforts at its Bitcoin mining facility in Paraguay have “clearly not only expanded our footprint exponentially, but has fast-tracked our cash flow and revenue.”
Bitcoin traded hands just above $115,000 on Friday morning, having surged more than 23% so far this year.
With rising adoption, growing institutional exposure, and accelerating infrastructure investment, Bitcoin is entering the second half of 2025 with strong momentum.