TNR Gold Corp (TSX-V:TNR, OTC:TRRXF) is about to make a strategic shift in its business model and position itself as a revenue-generating royalty firm, according to analysts at Fundamental Research Corp.
Production began earlier this year at the Mariana lithium project, owned by China’s Ganfeng Lithium, with TNR set to begin receiving royalty payments as early as the fourth quarter of 2025.
Based on current spot lithium prices, Fundamental Research estimates annual royalty revenue from Mariana could reach C$1 million.
The company's other flagship royalty asset is on the Los Azules copper-gold project in Argentina, controlled by privately held McEwen Copper Inc, a division of McEwen Mining Inc (TSX:MUX, NYSE:MUX). The large-scale, open-pittable deposit holds an estimated 38 billion pounds of copper, 4.7 million ounces of gold, and 159 million ounces of silver. McEwen plans to complete a resource update and feasibility study this quarter, with construction targeted for 2026 and production slated to start by 2029.
FRC projects that TNR’s royalty from Los Azules could generate annual revenues of up to C$10 million at current copper prices.
The firm reiterated its Buy rating and increased a fair value estimate from C$0.28 to C$0.30 per share, compared with a current trading price of C$0.09.
Both the Mariana and Los Azules projects have applied to Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers tax incentives, customs benefits, and legal stability aimed at attracting long-term mining investment.
TNR also holds 90% of the Shotgun gold project in Alaska and is actively seeking a joint venture partner to advance the property toward a preliminary economic assessment (PEA). The company intends to spin out the asset in a separate vehicle.
The shift in strategy comes amid signs of recovery in lithium markets, which have rebounded 17% over the past month to US$9,800 per tonne, following an extended downturn. While prices remain well below their 2022 highs, FRC expects further upside as global supply tightens in the lead-up to a projected deficit in 2026, fueled by demand from electric vehicles, energy storage, and AI infrastructure.
Key upcoming catalysts for TNR include the initiation of royalty payments from Mariana, an updated feasibility study from Los Azules, and the announcement of a Shotgun JV partner.