Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD) is being mispriced by the market, according to Jefferies analysts, who see the miner as its contrarian top pick in the gold sector.
“Investor sentiment on Barrick can only be described as negative,” the analysts wrote. They pointed to three areas of investor concern: geopolitical risk, heavy investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq project, and a perceived lack of near-term catalysts.
Despite these concerns, Jefferies sees significant upside. The firm maintains a ‘Buy’ rating and a US$29 price target on Barrick shares, representing 36% upside from current levels.
“On price to net asset value (P/NAV) at our price deck, Barrick trades at 0.61x versus its senior peers at 1.19x,” analysts wrote, adding that the stock also trades at just 3.3x enterprise value (EV)/2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) compared to 5.9x for its peer group.
“This is all reflected in Barrick’s valuation,” the analysts added, pointing to a steep discount that implies the market is over-penalizing Barrick’s riskier assets while ignoring the embedded value in its broader portfolio.
“When we pitch Barrick in investor meetings, we get pushback” they wrote. “With the market so focused on the riskier parts of Barrick’s portfolio, there is less attention on exploration upside at Fourmile and Goldrush.”
They also point to sequential production and cost improvements at Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo (PV) through 2025 as potential upside drivers. “Barrick’s other mines in more stable jurisdictions, in particular NGM and PV, are being unduly discounted,” they added.
Jefferies sees additional catalysts in upcoming capital deployment moves. “There is also potential for increased buybacks with the completion of the Donlin Gold stake for $1 billion,” the analysts wrote. “The sale of Hemlo and Tongon could potentially add another $1 billion.”
Jefferies stress-tested its model by excluding Barrick’s highest-risk assets, Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali and Reko Diq in Pakistan, entirely in an analysis.
“If we assume they are valued at zero, an extreme scenario, Barrick’s unlevered NAV reduces by 13% to $29.66/share,” analysts wrote.
Even in this scenario, the stock would trade at a higher P/NAV of 0.70x, still meaningfully below senior gold peers at 1.19x and their gold miner coverage at 0.97x.
Applying average valuation multiples across Barrick’s gold and copper assets, the analysts calculated that Barrick should be trading at $30.97 if the market assumes zero value for Loulo-Gounkoto and Reko Diq.
They concluded: “As we show in this report, Barrick's overall valuation is being dragged down significantly because of this exposure.”
Barrick’s US-listed shares are up almost 40% so far this year, trading hands at about US$21 on Wednesday afternoon.