Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) reports second-quarter results next Thursday, 24 July, with NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) following on Friday, 25 July, with the City analyst consensus pointing to growing profits at both.
May's first-quarter results from Lloyds included a £309 million impairment charge, which included a £100 million adjustment to “address downside risks” relating to US tariffs.
NatWest, meanwhile, said it expected return on tangible equity (ROTE) to be "at the upper end" of previous guidance for a range of 15-16%, with underlying income also at the upper end of the £15.2-15.7 billion range, while later that month the government completd the return of the bank to private ownership.
Lloyds forecasts
Consensus forecasts compiled by the company are for £4.5 billion of net income, up from the £4.4 billion in the first quarter.
Underlying profit before impairments of £2.04 billion is expected for Q2 (up from £1.84 billion in Q1) and a profit before tax of £1.69 billion (versus £1.52 billion). So for first-half results are expected to show underlying profits of £3.88 billion and PBT of £3.21 billion.
Net interest margin is expected to have improved from 3.03% in Q1 to 3.05% in Q1, the CET1 capital ratio from 13.5% to 13.8%, and return on tangible equity from 12.6% to 13.1%.
A dividend of 1.17p is forecast, the first part of an expected 3.5p full-year dividend for 2025, alongside a predicted £1.76 billion share buyback, up from 3.17p and £1.7 billion a year earlier.
NatWest consensus
For NetWest, which is fresh from selling its stake in Permanent TSB for €126 million and signing a partnership with Saga, total income is forecast to grow from £3.98 billion in Q1 to £3.96 billion, according to its company compiled consensus.
Operating profit before impairment losses is seen falling from £2.0 billion to £1.88 billion, while the bottom line is expected to drop from £1.34 billion to £1.21 billion.
Like its slightly larger rival, NatWest's NIM is anticipated to grow from 2.27% to 2.28%, with ROTE up from 18.5% to 15.8%, though its CET1 is predicted to fall from 13.8% to 13.6%.
A 9.1p dividend is forecast, while NatWest is not like Lloyds in waiting for the year-end to fire off another share buyback, with another £730 million likely to be loaded into the chamber.