- FTSE 100 rises 49 points to 8,975
- UK unemployment rises to four-year high of 4.7%
- Ocado, Future and Diploma updates impress investors
4.08pm: Footsie looking to wrap up solid session
The FTSE 100 remains well bid, up over 0.5%.
London's benchmark is still lagging peers on the Continent, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC both up over 1%, while in the main three US stocksindices are up between 0.2% and 0.7%.
Diploma, the maker of specialist nuts and bolts, is top of the Footsie leaderboard, up 7% after another strong update.
In its wake are a random mix of hoteliers, construction hire, aerospace, fund management, retail and housebuilding: Whitbread, Ashtead, Melrose, ICG, JD Sports and Taylor Wimpey.
Then there are some banks, Lloyds and Standard Chartered at the forefront, ahead of bank earnings coming up next week.
3.46pm: 'Little pressing need' for a Fed rate cut
Despite what the US President thinks, there is "little pressing need for another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve", says economist James Knightley at ING.
While retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in June, Knightly notes that it is better to focus more on the 'control group', which strips out volatile components such as autos, building materials, gasoline and eating out, "as this tends to better align with broader consumer spending trends (including services) and therefore gives us a better guide to consumption within GDP".
That rose 0.5% month-on-month, versus 0.3% expected, while May's growth rate was revised down to 0.2% from 0.4%.
"We need to remember that retail sales is a nominal dollar growth rate, so in real, inflation adjusted terms as GDP is measured, we need to knock off around 0.2 percentage points from the growth rate given what happened in the CPI report."
Details include strong nominal dollar auto sales growth of 1.2%, (contradicting a fall in volume numbers released by the automakers and the 0.3% fall in prices reported within the CPI report) and building materials also rose sharply, "perhaps pre-emptive buying ahead of tariffs, particularly with copper in the news".
Jobless claims also dipped again to 221k from 228k, while import prices came in at +0.1% versus +0.3% expected, with May's figure revised down to -0.4% from 0.0%.
Import prices data "is important as it perhaps suggests some willingness from foreign manufacturers to absorb part of the impact from tariffs via lower pricing," says Knightly.
"However, these are pretty small moves set against substantial tariff hikes and suggest that American businesses and households will bear the brunt."
3.13pm: Trump calls for rate cut again
President Trump is on Fed chief Jerome Powell's back again.
"“Too Late:” Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!! DJT" is his succinct call on his social media platform.
3pm: Under-paid tax
Up to £14.3 billion of tax is suspected to have been unpaid by wealthy individuals and their firms at the end of the last tax year, according to data from HMRC.
The data from the UK tax collection authority included £343 million of potentially under-declared inheritance tax (IHT), around £785 million for company research and development claims, and £3.2 billion of potential under-paid tax from international firms.
These amounts are put into a sharper spotlight amidst the growing public debt and efforts by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Treasury to gee up tax collection.
2.50pm: US stocks open higher
Wall Street stocks have opened higher.
The S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.4%, Dow Jones 0.45% and Russell 2000 is up 0.8%,
PepsiCo is top riser on the S&P 500, up oer 6% after its earnings impressed.
Back in London, the FTSE 100 is also picking up, rising over 0.5% now.
2.16pm: Jaguar Land Rover job cuts
Jaguar Land Rover is cutting up to 500 management jobs in the UK following a sharp drop in global sales and trade disruption with the US.
The voluntary redundancy programme affects around 1.5% of the carmaker’s UK workforce and is targeted at managerial roles, the company confirmed.
The move follows a 15.1% drop in retail sales for the three months to June, driven by a pause in exports to the US and the planned phase-out of older Jaguar models.
JLR halted US shipments in April after the American government threatened a 25% tariff on imported vehicles.
1.54pm: Retail sales and Uber
US futures have picked up after the release of further strong economic data.
June retail sales were up 0.6%, much higher than the 0.1% expected and a big swing from a decline of 0.9% the month before.
Year-on-year, US retail sales were up 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May.
In company news, Lucid Group Inc (NASDAQ:LCID) shares have leapt 44% in premarket after a $300 million investment from Uber was announced, with the aim of deploying "20,000 or more" of robotaxi versison of its electric vehicles.
The EV, equipped with autonomous driving software from Nuro, will be deployed over six years around the world, with the first expected to launch next year in "a major US city".
Uber will own some of the vehicles, with some owned by its third-party fleet partners and made available to riders via the Uber platform.
The first Lucid-Nuro robotaxi prototype is already being tested on a closed circuit at Nuro’s Las Vegas facility.
Uber also plans to make investments in Nuro.
“Autonomous vehicles have enormous potential to transform our cities for the better,” said Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. “We’re thrilled to partner with Nuro and Lucid on this new robotaxi program, purpose-built just for the Uber platform, to safely bring the magic of autonomous driving to more people across the world.”
1.20pm: Diageo's problems more than just leadership
Debra Crew’s departure from Diageo PLC, announced yesterday with immediate effect, was unlikely to mark a turning point for the world’s largest spirits group.
RBC analyst James Edwardes Jones views the move as hardly unexpected given the Guinness maker's performance under Crew's leadership, with total shareholder returns down 39% in euro terms.
But he notes that this drop is in line with a sector that has struggled across the board -- Pernod Ricard and Campari have both fared worse -- implying that the problem is not just about leadership.
The spirits industry itself is under sustained pressure from weaker demand, post-pandemic normalisation and shifting consumer habits, the analyst says, adding that even with a new CEO, Diageo is unlikely to recover swiftly unless the sector stabilises.
12.51pm: HMRC could collect more tax from billionaires
The UK tax collection office, HMRC, has been criticised by parliament’s spending watchdog for not keeping track of the number of billionaires paying tax in the UK.
A report from the influential Public Accounts Committee suggested there were "significant opportunities to collect more revenue" for the state purse, as Rachel Reeves and the government look for ways to pay for public services.
HM Revenue and Customs could not say how much tax revenue was contributed to the exchequer by the super-rich or how much they avoided.
In Reeves' spending review last month, she announced £1.7 billion of extra funding for HMRC to recruit an additional 5,500 compliance and 2,400 debt management staff.
12.35pm: European shares up, US futures down
The FTSE 100 continues to move sideways on the track it set out on in mid-morning, up 0.4%, wth the FTSE 250 on a similar path.
Across on the Continent, Germany's DAX and France's CAC are taking the high road, both up around 0.9%.
European markets are on the rise "despite a theme around weakening global employment", says market analyst Josh Mahoney at Rostro, with Australian and UK jobs reports both a sight.
"This morning has provided yet another harsh reality check for the BoE and Rachel Reeves...coming hot off the heels of yesterday’s unwelcome CPI rise that puts the UK as having the highest inflation rate in the G7".
Looking ahead, he says today sees a "notable data docket" of US macro titbits, including retail sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, providing insights on consumers, businesses and inflation in the face of Trump’s tariffs.
US futures are flat-to-down. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both flat, while Dow Jones futures are down 0.1%.
11.50pm: Mortgage market expects more rate cuts after 'horrendous' jobs data
Barclays today announced new cuts to its fixed-rate mortgage deals, including a market-leading 3.79% two-year fix for remortgagers.
Following the jobs data published this morning, mortgage brokers have linked the two.
Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, said the rate improvements from Barclays "may be a sign of things to come".
"Swap rates, which fixed rate mortgages are priced off, have fallen over the past few days and the appalling jobs data published today could mean a rate cut by the Bank of England next month is now baked in."
Katy Eatenton, a mortgage specialist at Lifetime Wealth Management, said the "horrendous" jobs data "should seal the deal on a rate cut next month".
"Yes, inflation has ticked up slightly, but the Bank of England must surely now focus on growth and stimulating the economy. To that end, a rate cut in August appears done and dusted, which will make for a busy few months ahead in the property market."
11.29am: Wind bags
Energy companies, including Octopus Energy and FTSE 100-listed generator SSE PLC (LSE:SSE), last night were sent a letter from Richard Tice, the energy spokesman for Reform, the political party led by Nigel Farage.
In the letter, Reform said it would scrap subsidies for clean energy if it got into power, claiming "there is no public mandate for the real-world consequences” of the net zero agenda.
Tice said he was giving "formal notice" to any companies seeking a guaranteed fixed price for their future wind generation in the upcoming AR7 'contracts for difference' (CFD) auction would "do so at your own risk" as Reform planned to "seek to strike down all contracts" if it gained power in the next election.
He added that participation in the upcoming CfD auction "carries significant political, financial and regulatory risk" for company shareholders.
In response, James Alexander, the chief executive of the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, said: “This letter risks putting politics before prosperity by issuing threats to developers in one of the UK’s fastest-growing industries.
Mel Evans at Greenpeace UK said: “Having Richard Tice leading on energy policy is about as sensible as having a tobacco company run the NHS. Reform is a party funded by fossil fuel interests, and this statement is nothing but a transparent political stunt straight out of Trump’s playbook.
“This would increase costs to British people by sabotaging green investment, keeping us hooked on gas which will stop us from being able to lower our bills, all while destroying future-proofed job opportunities for young people. And it would threaten our energy security, too."
10.46am: Polical donations law changes
The UK government is proposing to change rules on politcal donations and also to give 16-year olds the right to vote in the next general election.
Proposals have been published today that the government calls "seismic changes to modernise UK democracy", which were part of Labour's manifesto and will, they say, "help to restore trust in politics".
Allowing votes from the age of 16 will bring UK-wide elections in line with Scotland and Wales.
Loopholes will be closed that currently allow foreign donors to use shell companies to donate to and influence political parties.
The plans also include new requirements to mandate checks on donations over £500 to "tackle foreign interference".
10.15am: Easyjet analysis
Analysts at UBS and Peel Hunt say easyJet's Q3 results were slightly below forecasts, with pressure on consensus PBT forecasts due to fuel and French air traffic strikes.
PBT of £286 million compared to a £319 million estimate from Peel Hunt, due to a lower load factor than expected.
Cost per available kilometre (CASK) was "a little lower than we had assumed", and the Holidays profit was "encouragingly" ahead of forecast.
Despite the holiday outperformance, the full-year City consensus of circa £700 million "is likely to fall" by a mid-single-digit percentage due to lower airline earnings from French air traffic control strikes, slightly higher spot fuel costs, and revenue per kilo down 1% in the fourth quarter.
UBS's Jarrod Castle said underlying Q4 and Q1 2026 guidance looks "supportive" but the "reduced fuel tailwind and strike impact will likely weigh into shares".
Panmure Gordon's Gerald Khoo has cut his forecasts by 7% for this full year and its share price target to 730p from 800 but said he remains "positive given the continued strong performance at Holidays, which is the main driver of improved ROCE over the medium term".
9.13am: FTSE into its stride
The FTSE has got into its stride a bit now, with Diploma joined at the top of the leaderboard by lenders Lloyds and Standard Chartered.
Stocks are up despite gilt yields rising on the back of the jobs market data.
The FTSE has got some support from the pound sliding 0.2% against the dollar, pushing one-month lows, after the soft labour market data underscored the case for rate cuts.
This followed the UK jobless rate climbing to a four-year high, payrolls falling for the eighth month in a row and pay growth declining, all while inflation is rising.
"In short the economy is in a dire mess," says Neil Wilson at Saxo. "The BoE will need to cut some more. The British people may need to go a lot further."
Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist, saysd the ONS labour market report "continues to paint a picture of a loosening jobs market.
"That said, the labour market picture looks better than it did last month."
Pay growth continued its slow downtrend, with private sector wage growth continuing to undershoot the Bank of England’s forecasts, with vacancies were down for a 15th consecutive month and redundancies remaining elevated.
"Jobs demand remains weak as hiring plans are near a standstill. This will continue to see unemployment rise – but we think this will be a slow grind higher as opposed to a whipsaw higher."
For the BoE's monetary policy committee, despite the bump higher in inflation, "the loosening in labour market should give the BoE reason to proceed with a gradual dial down of restrictive policy.
"A ‘gradual and careful’ approach seems appropriate for now. And we do not think that the bar for faster rate cuts has been met just yet. The labour market is loosening, but perhaps not as fast as the unrevised payroll data suggested."
8.56am: Federal Reserve in spotlight
While Wall Street stock indices finished higher yesterday, there was a huge dip mid-session after several reports that President Trump might be about to fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
This put "central bank independence back in the spotlight", says Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank, leading to a "major selloff" for long-end Treasuries and the US dollar, but the moves mostly unwound after Trump said that he was "not planning" on firing Powell and that it was "highly unlikely".
8.43am: Frasers, Coats and Ocado
There's a few notable movers among FTSE 250 companies this morning.
Mike Ashley's Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS) is down 4% after the retailer's sales fell 7.4% and adjusted PBT came in towards the bottom of £550-600 million guidance range at £560 million.
Coats Group PLC (LSE:COA), the maker of threads and footwear components, has fallen 10% after announcing the completion of £246 million fundraising to partly pay for the $770 million (£578 million) acquisition of premium insoles maker OrthoLite Holdings, announced after the close yesterday. The issue price of 77p was a discount to yesterday's 82.1p closing price.
Ocado Group PLC (LSE:OCDO) shares are up over 12% as it reported a strong start to its financial year, with revenue growth of 13.2% and expecting five modules to go live this year, with eight robot-run warehouses over the next three years.
8.13am: FTSE held back by easyJet
The FTSE 100 has got off to a trot rather than a gallop, advancing 24 points to 8,951.
Top of the early leaderboard is technical products engineer Diploma, up 7.4% to a new all-time high, as it upgraded its organic growth outlook for the full year to 10%, up from 8% before.
Biggest faller is easyJet, down 6% as management flagged headwinds from French air traffic control strikes and fuel costs.
Broker Pabmure Liberum says it is cutting its forecasts by 7% for this year.
British Airways owner IAG is down 1.5% too in sympathy.
7.44am: Easyjet profits up
EasyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ) has lifted guidance for its Holidays business and said it expects overall "good profit growth" for the full year, after reporting a 21% increase in pre-tax profit to £286 million for its third quarter.
The low-cost airline said seat capacity growth will moderate in the second half of the year, with available seat kilometres (ASK) set to rise around 9% year-on-year, easing to 7% in the second half from 12% in the first.
EasyJet Holidays is now expected to deliver profit before tax of more than £235 million for the full year.
7.30am: Dog's dinner of jobs numbers
Responding to the UK labour market data, Nicholas Hyett at Wealth Club said: "Bank of England rate setters were trying to give markets some clarity on the direction of interest rates when it said it would be focussed on employment data when considering rate cuts. Unfortunately the picture with employment data itself remains confused.
"Not only are the top line numbers moving in strange and unpredictable ways - with both employment and unemployment rising at the same time - but the underlying data is also incredibly uncertain."
PAYE data from HMRC, seen as more reliable, has shown around 80,000 people were added back to the employment for April, while the ONS has already warned the May data could be subject to a "larger than average revision".
Hyett says: "The resulting dog's dinner of a data set could easily wrongfoot economic policymakers."
7.16am: FTSE 100 called higher as unemployment rate rises
The FTSE 100 is likely to get off to a galloping start on Thursday, as new UK jobs numbers showed pay growth slowing and unemployment rising.
Futures for the London index were up 38 points ahead of the opening bell, following a day where it finished almost 12 points lower at 8,926.55.
Unemployment increased to 4.7% in the three months to May, rising from 4.6%, where it had been expected to remain.
Average weekly wage growth slowed to 5.0% from a revised-up 5.4%, as expected, while pay growth excluding bonuses also softened to 5.0% from a revised-up 5.3%.
Last night, US stocks finished higher, with the Dow Jones climbing 0.5%, the S&P 500 rising 0.3% and the Nasdaq adding 0.25%.
Asian markets are mostly modestly higher this morning, with only India's sensex slightly in the red.
6.15am: FTSE 100 Live, Thursday 17 July
Mike Ashley's Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS) reports its first numbers since interims last December, though the company has hardly been quiet with its dealmaking and other external manoeuvres in the months since, such as disputes with Boohoo and funding for Mulberry.
Sales and profits fell in the first half, with guidance given for adjusted profit growth of between 1% and 10% for the full year.
Analysts say the share price performance has been disappointing and investors will be watching for updates on the group’s 'elevation' strategy and cost pressures, including the £50 million-plus flagged from changes to National Insurance and minimum wage levels.
QinetiQ Group PLC (LSE:QQ.) will load up a first-quarter trading update that comes just a few weeks after the defence technology specialist’s shares were powered to an all-time high by the publication of the UK’s new strategic defence review.
That boost for the sector came just days after the FTSE 250-listed group revealed it had taken “decisive action" to restructure its business, including agreeing a five-year extension to its long-term partnering agreement with the UK's Ministry of Defence.
Some analysts think Qinetiq remains one of those still occupying the UK defence sector’s undervalued pockets.
Later in the day, US earnings season welcomes its first big tech name, with Netflix, while for those focused on the AI trade, there will also be quarterly numbers from microchip-making giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (ADR) (NYSE:TSM).
TSMC reported slower sales momentum in the last month of the quarter after a strong performance in April and May and yesterday shares in sector peer ASML, which makes the machines that TSMC uses, saw its shares plunge over 10% after delivering a cautious outlook.
In macroeconomic data, UK jobs numbers will be under the microscope for markets, given that they have been much mentioned by various Bank of England speakers in recent weeks.
The consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.6% for May (some economists expect it to rise to 4.7%), while average pay growth eases to 4.9% from 5.3%, excluding bonuses. June payrolls are estimated to drop by 41K, after a 109K fall in May, that many economists expect to be revised to a smaller decline.
"The effects of the recent budget appear to be starting to feed into the headline UK unemployment numbers," said analyst Michael Hewson at MCG Market Insights, with the slowdown in hiring trends now seen to be accelerating in the services sector.
"At that rate we could well see unemployment hit 5% by the end of the year," he adds, saying this is "likely to present a problem" for the Bank of England, unless wage growth also slows markedly, "which could happen if the number of jobs shed accelerates into further contractions in GDP growth, but it's still likely to be a slow process".
Announcements expected:
Trading updates: BHP Group, Diploma, Dunelm Group, easyJet, Qinetiq, SSE, Wise
Interims: Ocado
Finals: Ilika, Frasers
Overseas earnings: Abbot Laboratories, PepsiCo, TSMC, Marsh & McLennan, Novartis, Volvo (all pre-market open), Interactive Brokers, Netflix (after close)
Economic announcements: Unemployment (UK), Inflation (EU), Retail Sales (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US), Philly Fed Business Conditions (US), Business Inventories (US), NAHB Housing Market Index (US)