- FTSE 100 up 15 points to 8,535
- UK inflation comes in hotter at 3.6%
- Bank of England's chance of August hike trimmed
4.11pm: FTSE insulated from tech worries, US banks fall despite earnings beats
Nothing much is changing with the FTSE 100 as Wednesday trading moves into the final stretch.
The London benchmark's 0.3% gain is about the same as the DAX in Frankfurt, while around European markets the dominant colour is green, with Spain's IBEX leading the way with a 0.5% gain led by pharma group Grifols.
Wall Street's main indexes are now all pretty much flat, following the flat producer price data.
"US stocks have had a muted start to the session, even though inflation pressures have moderated and US bond yields are lower," says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
"The focus is on the tech sector, which has gone from hero to zero in 24 hours," she says, as Nvidia's China export news is followed by declines after a weaker than expected earnings report from ASML.
The Dutch giant semiconductor equipment maker failed to provide sales guidance for next year, and reduced its forecast for sales for the third quarter below analyst forecasts.
ASML shares are down 10%, holding back the Eurostoxx indices.
"ASML’s fortunes are closely tied to the overall tech sector in the US, and the semiconductor equipment sector is the weakest performer in the S&P 500 so far on Wednesday," says Brooks.
The other focus Stateside is bank sector earnings, where Goldman reported its best ever quarter for trading revenues thanks to April's market volatility on the back of all the tariff news.
However, Goldman shares are down 0.7%, Morgan Stanley’s are down more than 2%, Bank of America’s down 1.4% and JP Morgan’s share price is also lower for a second day, despite all beating earnings expectations.
"This is not because there is something nasty lurking deep in [Goldman's] earnings report, but instead because the share price is already higher by 20% YTD, and since April’s sell off, volatility has been subdued, so mega size trading revenues are unlikely to be repeated in Q3."
Likewise, Morgan Stanley reported earnings better than expected, with Bank of America and JP Morgan too.
"We think that the market is making its own mind up about this quarter’s trading revenues and the potential for tariffs to disrupt investment banking income and weigh on the consumer, as reasons for caution when it comes to US banking stocks this week," says Brooks.
As for the FTSE, she says the London index's lack of tech exposure protects it from the sell-off in some stocks linked to ASML and semiconductors.
"Added to this, UK bond yields are giving back earlier gains after the stronger than expected CPI report for June. This is also eroding support for the pound."
3.05am: Diageo CEO steps down
Diageo shares spiked after the Guinness and Smirnoff maker said that Debra Crew has stepped down as chief executive with immediate effect.
Insisting the move had been by mutual agreement, the FTSE 100 booze maker said it has begun a "comprehensive formal search process", examining both internal and external candidates.
Financial chief Nik Jhangiani will take on the role of CEO on an interim basis.
Diageo said its guidance for this year and 2026 remains unchanged from its update in May, with final results still expected to be published on 5 August.
2.46pm: New York stocks join London blue-chips in green
US stocks have opened higher, while the FTSE is remaining bid.
In New York, the Dow Jones is up 0.2% and the S&P 500 has added 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite is flat.
The small cap Russell 2000 is leading the gains, up 0.7%.
London's blue-chip index, meanwhile, is sitting 0.3% higher.
1.40pm: Big bank earnings
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have posted their earnings.
Goldman's revenue and earnings beat expectations, rising 15% to $14.6 billion, while earnings per share surging 27% to $10.91. Estimates for earnings were around $9.77.
CEO David 'DJ D'Sol' Solomon said: "At this time, the economy and markets are generally responding positively to the evolving policy environment.
"But as developments rarely unfold in a straight line, we remain very focused on risk management."
Morgan Stanley's EPS were up 11% to $2.13, versus a Wall Street consensus of $1.97.
Goldman shares up up almost 1% premarket, while MS's are down around the same.
1.05pm: US stocks mixed again
Wall Street futures are painting a picture that looks like a mirror opposite of yesterday.
Dow Jones futures are up 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.2%, with those for the S&P 500 just below flat.
Last night, US stocks were mixed too, with the Dow dropping 1% and the S&P slipping 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% thanks to a strong rally for Nvidia and other chip giants.
12.43pm: Hays hit by downgrade
Shares in Hays fell 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock, highlighting multiple reasons to be cautious about the recruiter's outlook, including weak staffing data in Germany and the UK, which account for around half of the company’s net fees.
This, in turn, suggests that net fees could decline by about 3% in the 2026 financial year.
Morgan Stanley, which moved to an 'underweight' rating and cut its price target to 55p from 64p, sees risks to consensus operating profit forecasts, expecting around 10% downside over the next two years.
12.20pm: FTSE 100 snaking sideways
The FTSE 100 is continuing to snake its way sideways, keeping in a rough band of between 10 points and 17 points as it has since an hour into the session.
Sterling remains up slightly versus the dollar at $1.340, roghly flat versus the euro at £0.8665.
Gilt yields, which dipped yesterday, spiked this morning on the inflation data, but have eased back to where they were before the ONS release.
Parts of the UK government bond market may need to adjust, says James Flintoft, head of investment solutions at AJ Bell.
"The persistence of inflation above 3%, well ahead of the Bank of England’s 2% target, further highlights the risk that higher inflation is here to stay, and parts of the gilt market need to adjust.
"This comes at a time when there are widespread concerns over the UK’s fiscal path, with the Mansion House speech last night providing little clarity on the situation ahead of the Autumn Budget.
"On top of that, a recent report from the Office for Budget Responsibility highlighted that UK pension schemes, typically a strong supporter of the gilt market, are expected to be selling gilts over the next decade, adding upward pressure to gilt yields", Flintoft says.
He says: "Investors holding gilts to protect their portfolios in times of market volatility may need to check they hold the right part of the gilt market."
There is a risk that longer-dated bond yields need to move higher, he says, meaning bond prices fall to compensate investors for inflation and fiscal uncertainty.
Some funds (such as AJ Bell's) do this, while also holding shorter dated US TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) to help offset inflation in the US.
"Being diversified in equity markets has been a key theme so far in 2025, but it may be that diversification in bond markets proves to be just as important in the years ahead," he says.
11.38am: Home sellers and renters impact
Increased house price growth will be "welcome news to sellers, who may see a flatlining economy and hear alarm bells ringing", says Jonathan Handford, managing director at estate agents Fine & Country.
"The volatility that we saw in the spring - largely down to changes in stamp duty - is fading, and buyer sentiment is clearly recovering."
Today's ONS survey echoes other research from RICS and fresher data from Nationwide and Halifax.
The latest RICS report noted that buyer demand flipped to positive in June for the first time since December 2024.
Prime properties, those valued over £750k, have seen price drops, Handford notes, which has driven "a surge in demand, as buyers look to snap up high-value properties at reduced prices".
From a renter's perspective, the "relentless drum beat of misery for renters goes on. However, it has softened from a kettle drum to a bass drum," says Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, "so while it’s still causing renters to reel, the impact isn’t quite so dramatic."
While rents are still rising, the pace of growth slowed for the sixth month in a row, down to 6.7% from 7.0%.
Coles says there are "some signs of more balance returning to the market", though she notes that the recent RICS data showed landlords are still selling up, the number of tenants is holding steady.
"The slowing in the flow of new renters is partly a result of just how much rents have risen in recent years, it’s proving impossible to move out of the family home, so hopeful would-be tenants are trapped in their childhood bedrooms."
10.57am: Retail and leisure sector interests being voted in Parliament
Trade unions have slammed the House of Lords for being "out of touch" after they voted against the government's Employment Rights Bill's proposals to end zero-hours contracts.
Opposition peers backed a move to change the proposed legal requirement for an employer to offer workers a contract which reflects their regular hours, to an employee’s “right to request” the arrangement.
They also backed a measure to exempt employers from having to make a payment to a worker if a shift was cancelled with at least 48 hours’ notice.
The Bill returns to the Lords today for further votes on opposition amendments, including on fire and rehire.
As well as urging the government to "stand firm" and workers’ rights, the TUC, pointed out that the proposals have strong public support, including with Conservative and Reform supporters.
Some 72% of UK voters support a ban on zero hours contracts, which the TUC says make it hard for workers to plan their lives, budget and look after their children.
TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said the peers that voted to keep zero-hours contracts "are out of touch and defying the will of the public".
"I would challenge any Tory Lord or Lib Dem peer to try to survive on a zero-hours contract, not knowing from week to week how much work they will have.
“The sight of hereditary peers denying workers basic protections belongs in another century – not modern Britain. They’re defending the broken status quo and are putting their own vested interests ahead of working people’s lives."
10.33am: House prices
UK house price inflation rose to 3.9% in May, while rental growth eased from the previous month's 7% increase to 6.7%.
The Office for National Statistics revealed that house prices rose 3.9% to £269,000, rising from an annual growth rate of 3.6% in April.
Average house prices increased to £290,000 (up 3.4%) in England, £210,000 (up 5.1%) in Wales, and £192,000 (up 6.4%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to May.
Average UK house prices increased by 3.9%, to £269,000 in the year to May 2025, up from 3.6% in the 12 months to April 2025.
Average UK private rents increased by 6.7% in the year to June 2025, this is down from 7.0% in May 2025.
Read more ➡️ https://t.co/xxT04s9O2o pic.twitter.com/YIiOciyJWY
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 16, 2025
10.16am: BoE still expected to cut rates, but probability trimmed
The FTSE 100 is up 17 points now, with ICG in the lead, followed by insurers, airlines and miners.
After the UK inflation data earlier, markets are now seeing an 87% chance of an August cut, down from 99% before the data.
Here's another view on the BoE in relation to this morning's CPI, this time from economist Kallum Pickering at Peel Hunt.
His quick take is: "Although the BoE is likely to press on with another rate cut at its next meeting on 8 August, in our view, despite the upside surprise to the June inflation print, the unexpected jump increases the still low chance that policymakers could hold instead.
"The shift down in the probability which money markets place on an August cut from 99% before the data were published to 87% following the release looks reasonable, in our view."
In more detail, he says the upside inflation surprise, taken at face value, "complicates the near-term policy decisions".
"While the jump in price pressures linked to the April rise in regulated prices for energy and water – amplified by base effects – was widely known and expected, the June increase goes beyond what policymakers had anticipated."
It seems to blow the BoE's May policy report projections off course, so "the question is whether policymakers will write this off as a one-off that merely brings forward the expected jump, or whether it will lead to a further upward revision" to the second half projections of 3.5% in Q3 and 3.3% in Q4.
"Even in such a scenario, however, we would not expect the BoE to change its inflation calls much."
He notes that money markets have slightly lowered the probability for an August cut, but the overall call for a total of three more cuts from the BoE to take the bank rate from 4.25% currently to 3.50% by mid-2026 remains unchanged.
"In our view, this call represents a risk scenario rather than a base case. We expect just two more cuts this year and no cuts thereafter – we look for upside surprises to economic activity to encourage policymakers to stop a little short of what money markets expect."
9.23am: A 'perky' start for ICG
On Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICP), coming so soon after its full year results, the asset manager's Q1 statements "tend to be little more than a staging post for current year expectations recently set", says Rae Maile at Panmure Liberum.
"That said, this has been a perky start to the year with respect to fund-raising (although lumpy in nature and not typically to be extrapolated), deployments, the addition of leverage, modest realisations and in headline reported terms a useful weakening of the USD (but the P&L will face a headwind).
"The shares have been indifferent performers relative to the sector in the year to date, a reflection of sharply reduced estimate expectations perhaps, but statements like this are a useful reminder of the company’s many attributes."
9.06am: CPI worrying but a rate cut could still come
Interesting thoughts on whether a potential Bank of England rate cut in the next monetary policy committee meeting, next month, is likely to be affected by today's CPI numbers, from Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja.
The upside in CPI above the forecasts was broad-based, he says, with services inflation above the BoE and his projections, including airfares, motor insurance, transport costs, and accommodation prices all surprising to the upside.
Core goods inflation shot up higher than expected, while there was better news for the MPC as processed food, seasonal food and meat prices all undershot projections.
"What does this mean for the MPC? Perhaps given the focus on the labour market, tomorrow's data may hold more weight when it comes to shaping the monetary policy outlook.
"But today's data won't give the MPC any sense of comfort on the inflation side. Headline CPI, core CPI, services CPI, and core goods CPI now all sit above Bank staff projections. All of the Bank's core services measure have also increased in June.
"And we expect headline CPI to push closer to 4% y/y after the summer, before beginning its slow descent back to target later next year. The Bank, like us, will be watching closely the implications on inflation expectations, which already look a bit uncomfortable.
"This kind of data (in and of itself) won't motivate the MPC to contemplate faster or sequential rate cuts. In fact, the bar for a dovish surprise on tomorrow's labour market data will likely rise on the back of today's inflation reading.
"Is an August rate cut in jeopardy? No, we don't think so.
"There's enough of a slowdown in GDP and the labour market to warrant a 'gradual and careful' easing of monetary policy. But the onus now rests on the labour market to shape how far and how fast the MPC can cut this year and next."
8.57am: RIO and ANTO impress
On Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) and Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) are both up 2% now.
After the giant miners posted operational updates for the second quarter, analyst Duncan Hay at Panmure Liberum said it was a "solid Q2 after a weak Q1".
A day after announcing that iron ore chief Simon Trott will take over as CEO next month, RIO hailed "excellent" performance from the group's mines, with record production from the bauxite business and from the massive copper-gold deposit Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.
There was no change to guidance, but copper and bauxite are now expected to be at the upper end of the range, with costs at the lower end due to progress on the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up, the performance of partly owned Escondida in Chile, and higher than expected gold prices also driving net costs down.
As for ANTO, Peter Mallin-Jones at Peel Hunt said copper was "a slight miss", but unit costs were lower than expected.
Copper output of 160kt was slightly below his 163kt estimate, gold output of 48koz was lower than his 59koz estimate, while molybdenum output was a beat at 4.4kt versus 3.9kt.
"Despite the slightly lower volumes, gross cash costs were lower than we expected, aided by the super low copper TC/RCs [treatment and refining charges] at present.
"At US$2.27/lb this was well down on our US$2.40/lb. Despite the lower gold output, net cash costs of just US$1.15/lb were also under our US$1.19/lb, with the main two operations both well under US$1.0/lb."
The unit cost position "looks very promising" for the coming second half performance, he added, "given the expectations for rising volumes through 3Q and 4Q, and we suspect this will more than offset minor concerns over the lower-than-expected output at Zaldivar".
8.41am: Barclays fined for lax controls exposed in money laundering cases
Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) has been fined £42 million by the UK City watchdog for failures in managing financial crime risk, relating to two separate multimillion-pound money laundering cases.
The larger of the two fines related to a company later exposed as part of a multimillion-pound money laundering operation.
The FCA said Barclays did not act even after law enforcement flagged serious concerns, only launching a review after the regulator moved to prosecute NatWest over similar failings.
Therese Chambers, the FCA’s joint enforcement chief, said: “Banks need to take responsibility and act promptly, particularly when obvious risks are brought to their attention.”
8.32am: AZ late-stage trial fails to meet primary target
AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN) is among the fallers this morning, down 1.2% after a late-stage trial of its experimental treatment for AL amyloidosis, a rare and life-threatening condition, failed to meet its primary target in the overall patient group.
The CARES phase III study tested anselamimab, a drug designed to clear harmful protein deposits in organs.
While the trial did not achieve statistical significance in reducing deaths and cardiovascular hospitalisations across all participants, AZ said the drug showed a clear benefit in a prespecified subgroup of patients.
AL amyloidosis is caused by the build-up of misfolded proteins, which can damage the heart, kidneys and other organs. Most patients are diagnosed late, often with limited treatment options.
8.15am: FTSE indecisive in early trading
The FTSE 100 seemed undecided in early Wednesday trading, with several moves up and down in the first few minutes.
After 15, it was less than one point higher than where it started, at just over 8,939.
Upward forces were from miners Rio Tinto and Antofagasta, up over 1% as they delivered solid but unexceptional production updates.
Defensive names like Fresnillo, Airtel, BAT, HSBC and insurers Hiscox and Beazley were also higher.
Ashtead and Rentokil led the fallers, down 1.4% and 1.1%. Both US focused UK businesses.
Barratt Redrow and its housebuilding peers were subsiding for a second day after a moderately disappointing trading update yesterday.
7.59am: ICG says 'very attractive' investment landscape
Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICP), the FTSE 100-listed alternative asset manager, reported higher fee-earning assets under management for the first quarter of its financial year and said the "investment landscape remains very attractive for a number of strategies".
Fee-earnings AUM was $82 billion at 30 June 2025, up 4% in the quarter and 11% year-on-year, supported by strong fundraising activity.
Total AUM stood at $123 billion, with $19 billion not yet earning fees. The group raised $3.4 billion during the quarter, led by contributions to the Europe IX private credit fund and the Infrastructure Europe II fund.
7.51am: Mansion House review
There wasn’t much in Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech last night that hadn’t been leaked already.
The main angle of the speech seemed to be Reeves exhorting regulators to be more growth-minded, something that she and Keir Starmer have been saying for some time.
Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB, said "those hoping for clarity on the tax regime were left disappointed".
But "the tone and content of the speech was clearly designed to win over the City", with reforms announced including deregulation, significant changes to the listing regime to try and boost the UK stock market, as well as key announcements to help home buyers and retail traders.
Brooks flagged a change to UK pension funds, where they could be mandated to invest in a wider range of riskier assets.
"The Chancellor did not state that these assets should be British, however, that change could come in future. Reeves stressed that she does not intend to force pension funds to do this, but she may do so if the funds don’t acquiesce to taking more risk."
This is "not all bad news, as riskier assets can deliver better returns than lower-risk investments like sovereign debt, which could make pension holders richer in retirement", Brooks adds.
"This change should be applauded, as it could boost the returns paid to retirees. However, it does leave us wondering, if pension funds ditch bonds in favour of higher return stocks and alternative investments, who will buy all of the debt that the UK government needs to issue?"
Reeves also confimed the mortgage guarantee scheme that had been leaked last week, with rules also to be eased to allow higher loan to value lending, and budding homeowners will be able to borrow higher multiples of their income.
"It is unclear whether young people will want to saddle themselves with excessive levels of debt, especially as we enter a period of economic uncertainty," says Brooks.
The third strand of the speech was retail investment, where Reeves did not reduce the cash ISA limit but said she is looking at further changes to ISA rules in the future.
Earlier yesterday, her Leeds reforms included making it easier for banks to encourage savers to invest in stocks, a new national advertising campaign to encourage the public to take more levels of risk with their savings and buy stocks and shares.
7.43am: Investors in wait-and-see mode
The recent declines in shares on both sides of the Atlantic are "a reflection of growing investor unease ahead of a high-stakes group of earnings and inflation readings", says market analyst Naeem Aslam at Zaye Capital Markets.
He says these are "two behemoth forces" driving futures lower today.
There's not much in terms of key UK corporate earnings in the spotlight today, apart from mining production updates and numbers from asset manager ICG.
In the US yesterday, banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup smashed earnings, but "bad guidance along with compounding cost structures have left hope reeling", he says.
Traders today are preparing to see what Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs in the banking sector, and Johnson & Johnson elsewhere, "where a miss on earnings or margin squeeze can extend the pullback".
"Across Europe, the playbook is the same. Inflation uncertainty is being met with earnings season angst. After momentarily touching at record highs, the FTSE 100 pulled back as market participants were defensive ahead of UK CPI numbers.
"Both Atlantic coasts are similarly attuned to positioning against macro cues and central bank oratory."
7.29am: Food prices the problem
ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “Inflation ticked up in June driven mainly by motor fuel prices which fell only slightly, compared with a much larger decrease at this time last year.
“Food price inflation has increased for the third consecutive month to its highest annual rate since February of last year. However, it remains well below the peak seen in early 2023.”
But core CPI, which excludes more volatile prices such as fuel and food, still jumped 3.7% year-on-year, increasing from 3.5% in May, which the market expected to remain the rate in June.
Services CPI remained at 4.7%, when it was forecast to ease to 4.5%.
⚠️ Hotter-than-expected UK CPI. But (i) ok breadth (only 46% of basket >2.5% annualised inflation); (ii) ok-ish core services & goods. Food inflation worrying. BoE still on track to cut given weak jobs market. Mkt a bit too excited about front-loaded cuts (slow-burner to 3%) $GBP pic.twitter.com/TIvobQuBRR
— Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) July 16, 2025
tldr UK macro - we're royally stuffed
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 16, 2025
7.16am: FTSE called lower as inflation rises more than expected
The FTSE 100 has been called modestly lower on Wednesday as UK inflation figures were published, showing a higher level than expected, lifting the pound.
On the futures market, the London index was called 11 points lower, following a day when the benchmark broke above 9,000 for the first time but then stumbled almost 60 points lower in the last couple of hours to end at 8,938.3.
Wall Street was also mixed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 dropping 1% and 0.4% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% in the month of June, the Office for National Statistics revealed, up from the previous monthly rate of 0.2% and more sharply than the 0.1% increase that economists had predicted.
This meant that the annual rate of UK CPI increased to 3.6%, up from 3.4% previously and higher than the 3.4% average forecast, which remains well above the BoE's 2% target rate.
6.15am: FTSE 100 Live on Wednesday 16 July
There will be quarterly operational updates from two FTSE 100 miners on Wednesday, Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) and Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), coming on the back of a month where the sector index has been creeping higher.
At its first-quarter results in April, Rio trimmed 2025 iron ore guidance to the lower end of its 323-338 million tonne range due to weather disruption earler in the year, with UBS saying the company should be "on track to meet this revised guidance", while copper is forecast to see Q2 production of around 210kt, flat on the Q1.
Antofagasta shares, along with Rio and other major miners, wobbled last week as confusion reigned following President Trump’s 50% tariff threat on copper imports.
It may be interesting to hear what the companies say, but a report from Oxford Economics this week suggested the copper tariff slated to begin on August 1 will have "negligible economic impacts" on Chile (where ANTO operates) and Peru as the US has little capacity to increase domestic supply.
Fiscal impacts for Chile and Peru should be limited in the near term, as US-bound copper exports are a small share of the total.
Outside of the mining sector, US earnings season will continue getting into its stride with the second day of US bank reporting, namely Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
UK inflation will be out at 7am London time, and is expected to have remained around 3.4% in June, roughly unchanged for the third consecutive month, well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said yesterday that inflation pressures are "still a challenge" for the Monetary Policy Committee even if there has been growing slack in the jobs market, as Governor Andrew Bailey said at the start of the week.
"We have seen wage rates come down, so people are getting wage increases, but not at the rate in the past," Mann said. "And we’ve seen price inflation come down quite a bit, but it’s still a challenge because it’s still well above our 2% objective."
Announcements expected:
Trading updates: Antofagasta, Hunting, Intermediate Capital Group, Rio Tinto
Interims: Trustpilot Group
Finals: Cohort, Creightons, TwentyFour Income Fund
Overseas earnings: ASML (NL), Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (all US pre-market)
Economic announcements: Inflation (UK), House Prices Index (UK), Balance of Trade (EU), PPI (US), Industrial Production (US), Beige Book (US), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (US)