4:11pm: Dow slumps
US stocks finished Tuesday’s session mixed as new data showed inflation ticked up in June, indicating the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon.
The Dow Jones slid 1% to close at 44,022 points while the S&P 500 shed 0.4% at 6,243.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.2% at 20,677 points as Nvidia led chipmakers higher on the news that it will soon be able to resume shipments of its AI chips to China following US export restrictions.
Meanwhile, the US has reached a preliminary trade deal with Indonesia, setting a 19% tariff rate, lower than the previously threatened 32% tariff set to take effect on August 1. It has been hailed by US President Donald Trump as a "great deal for everybody," following direct talks with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.
3:18pm: Stocks on the move
- Nvidia shares moved almost 4% higher after the chipmaker said on Tuesday it expects to resume shipments of its H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to China shortly, after sales were halted due to US export restrictions.
- Trade Desk shares jumped almost 8% after it was revealed the digital advertising technology firm will be added to the S&P 500 later this week.
- Nano One Materials has been selected to join the Arkansas Lithium Technology Accelerator (ALTA), a new US initiative aimed at strengthening the domestic battery supply chain and reducing dependence on foreign inputs, sending its shares more than 23% higher on Tuesday.
- BlackRock shares fell more than 5% after the investment firm reported a revenue miss for the second quarter, overshadowing better-than-expected earnings.
- Wells Fargo on Tuesday reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, driven by lower credit loss provisions and higher fee-based income, though shares fell about 6% as investors reacted to a downward revision in the bank’s full-year net interest income guidance.
2:55pm: Proactive news headlines
- NanoViricides (NYSE-A:NNVC) is preparing to launch a Phase 2 clinical trial of its lead antiviral NV-387 for Mpox Clade I in the DRC, following ethics approval from the health ministry.
- Nano One Materials Corp (TSX:NANO, OTC:NNOMF) has been selected for the Arkansas Lithium Technology Accelerator to help bolster the U.S. domestic battery supply chain.
- Uranium American Resources Inc. (OTC:TNGL) has secured a $3.5 million equity investment from a U.S. institutional investor to complete its acquisition of JAG Minerals Pty Ltd.
- Lisata Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:LSTA) received a new U.S. patent covering its drug candidate certepetide, extending protection potentially through 2040.
- Standard Uranium Ltd (TSX-V:STND, OTCQB:STTDF) has completed the first ExoSphere Multiphysics surveys at its Davidson River project to identify summer 2025 drill targets.
- Happy Creek Minerals Ltd. (TSX-V:HPY, OTC:HPYCF) is raising up to C$3.25 million in a private placement to fund exploration and drilling at its Fox tungsten project and other assets.
- Bit Digital Inc (NASDAQ:BTBT) announced a $67.3 million registered direct offering with institutional investors, facilitated by B Riley Securities.
- Nevis Brands (CSE:NEVI, OTCQB:NEVIF) reported stable revenue and gross margins in fiscal Q2 2025, driven by early sales of its hemp-derived THC beverage line.
- MP Materials has received a $400 million investment from the U.S. Department of Defense to support rare earths production and strengthen domestic supply chains.
- Ilika PLC (AIM:IKA, OTCQX:ILIKF) secured a £1.25 million UK government grant to scale up its Goliath solid-state EV battery production under the DRIVE35 programme.
- Anglo Asian Mining Plc (LSE:AAZ, OTC:AGXKF) reported higher June production thanks to a strong performance at its new Gilar mine in Azerbaijan.
- Arrow Exploration Corp (TSX-V:AXL, AIM:AXL, OTC:CSTPF) increased production to 4,600–4,800 boe/d after bringing two new horizontal wells online in Colombia.
1:25pm: Dimon: risks remain
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that while the US economy remained resilient during the quarter, significant risks remain.
“The finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation are positive for the economic outlook, however, significant risks persist – including from tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices,” Dimon said.
“As always, we hope for the best but prepare the firm for a wide range of scenarios.”
12:30pm: Chipmakers cheer China shipments
Nvidia shares rose after the company announced it expects to resume shipments of its H20 AI graphics processing units (GPUs) to China soon, following assurances from the US government that export licenses will be approved.
Sales had been halted due to US export restrictions, which Nvidia said would cost the company about $8 billion in revenue for the July quarter.
The update follows a recent meeting between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and former President Donald Trump, and Huang also introduced a new “fully compliant” NVIDIA RTX PRO GPU aimed at smart factories and logistics.
The easing of restrictions is likely to benefit suppliers across the AI chip supply chain, including Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Nvidia’s shares gained 4.4%, AMD rose 6.7%, and TSMC added 3.6% in response to the news.
11:45am: Trade Desk pops
Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) shares jumped almost 10% after it was revealed the digital advertising technology firm will be added to the S&P 500 later this week.
The company will join the index before the opening of trading on Friday.
It replaces information technology firm ANSYS, which is being acquired by Synopsys in a deal expected to be completed on Thursday.
The Trade Desk operates a cloud-based platform that enables buyers to manage and optimize digital advertising campaigns across various formats and devices.
11:10am: US banks beat
JPMorgan Chase reported second-quarter earnings of $5.24 per share, beating expectations of $4.48, despite a 17% drop in net income to $15 billion due to the absence of a one-time $8 billion gain recorded last year. Revenue of $45.7 billion topped forecasts and was driven by solid trading and investment banking performance. Net interest income rose 2% to $23.3 billion, prompting the bank to raise its full-year guidance to $95.5 billion.
Citigroup also outperformed, posting earnings of $1.96 per share versus estimates of $1.60. Revenue climbed 8% to $21.67 billion, supported by a 12% rise in net interest income and the best second-quarter trading results in equities since 2020. FICC and equities trading revenues beat forecasts, and investment banking rebounded with an 18% increase. The bank lifted its full-year revenue guidance to around $84 billion.
Wells Fargo exceeded earnings expectations with Q2 EPS of $1.60, up 20% year-over-year. Revenue rose 1% to $20.82 billion, slightly ahead of estimates. However, net interest income fell 2% to $11.71 billion, prompting a cut in full-year guidance to $47.7 billion, below analyst projections. Shares dropped 4.5% as investors reacted to the downward revision.
10:40am: Inflation holds steady
Economists see the inflation outlook as relatively stable, with energy prices falling and signs of weakening discretionary demand—such as lower vehicle and airfare prices—helping cool price pressures.
Bill Adams of Comerica Bank noted that the softening housing market could further ease core inflation, possibly paving the way for a rate cut later this year.
“The Israel-Iran war’s short-lived spike in energy prices pushed up total inflation in the month, but core inflation was little changed,” Adams said. “Businesses could be waiting for clarity on tariffs before deciding how much to raise prices, or perhaps skittish consumer demand is limiting pricing power.”
Kathleen Brooks of XTB emphasized that the Fed can remain focused on employment, given muted inflation from tariffs. “It appears that the Fed does not need to worry about price pressures emanating from tariffs—for now.”
Gina Bolvin warned investors not to expect aggressive policy easing. “Inflation’s not going quietly,” Bolvin said. “The June reading gives the Fed reason to pause before cutting rates. Markets expecting an aggressive pivot may be disappointed.
9.55am: Mixed start, as chipmakers rise
A mixed start for Wall Street, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% but the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.6%.
The S&P 500 is in between, up 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 is flat.
Chipmakers are leading gains on the S&P, with AMD, Super Micro Computer and NVIDIA top of the leaderboard, up 7.3%, 5.9% ansd 4.3%.
Finance and banks are down, led by a 6% fall for BlackRock, with Wells Fargo falling 4.7%, and State Street dropping 3.6%.
9.25am: CPI shows some evidence of tariff effects
Thoughts on US inflation from James Knightley, economist at ING, who says the CPI showed "some evidence of early tariff impacts," but weak housing costs and falling car prices offset this.
The June consumer price inflation report showed a 0.287% month-on-month reading for June.
"The details show that there was some scattered evidence of early tariff impacts on some goods components – mainly fresh fruit & vegetables, household appliance, toys, clothing and sporting goods, but this was offset to a large extent by softness in the all-important shelter component, which has an approximately 40% weighting within the core CPI basket."
While core CPI coming in at 0.2% versus the 0.3% expectations "may give President Trump an excuse to launch another salvo at Jerome Powell," Knightly said he has long suggested it would be three months from April/May before the tariffs show up in force.
"That means the July, August and September CPI reports are where we will see the potential for 0.4%+ MoM prints."
President Trump has been pushing Powell to cut rates by 200bp to 300bp immediately, and two of his appointees to the FOMC from his first presidential term, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, have suggested they could vote in favour of a cut as soon as the July meeting.
However, Knightly notes that the rest of the committee feels they have time to wait, especially in light of the recent firmer-than-expected June jobs report and the Fed "doesn't want to get it wrong again" after being stung by criticism when it suggested the post-pandemic supply shock price hikes would be "transitory", only for inflation to hit 9% in 2022.
Nonetheless, interest rate cuts "will eventually come", he says, with the cooler growth environment with a softer jobs narrative and weakening wage pressures to "help ensure that inflation is indeed temporary" and the Fed likely to be "much more comfortable with cutting interest rates from the December FOMC meeting, kicking off with a 50bp move".
9:00am: CPI in line
US consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while monthly CPI increased 0.3%, matching forecasts.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in softer than expected at 2.9% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, compared with estimates of 3% and 0.3%, respectively.
7:55am: Mixed start expected
US stocks were set for a mixed start to trading on Tuesday, with major indexes skewed higher thanks to a boost for Nvidia.
Futures for the tech-powered Nasdaq were up 0.5% and the S&P 500 was up 0.3% thanks to strength across chipmakers, led by a 4.4% gain for Nvidia in premarket deals.
This followed the company saying overnight that the US government had approved sales of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China after imposing restrictions in April.
Dow Jones futures were down 0.1%.
Early earnings released from BlackRock and Citigroup both beat forecasts, though BlackRock shares were down 1.9% premarket and Citi's were flat.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, while European stocks gave up early gains to flatten off.
"Investors seem to be climbing a ‘wall of worry’ as sentiment remains fragile," said market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
A slightly upbeat early tone in Europe disappeared despite reports that Brussels would not be launching retaliatory measures in order to try and find a deal with Washington ahead of the 1 August deadline.
Bitcoin has pulled back from highs at the start of the week, with a 3.9% fall to $117K.
"The retreat appears to be driven by profit-taking rather than any shift in broader sentiment," said Morrison.
Oil prices fell overnight, with WTI at $66.9 after the latest report from the OPEC cartel kept forecasts unchanged, predicting that the global economy in the second half of 2025 could grow more than previously thought, even with trade issues.
US CPI inflation data is due 8.30am.