- FTSE 100 closes at all time high
- European stocks slide after Trump threatens 30% tariff
- Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $122K
- Silver prices climb to 14-year high
4.55pm: Record close
The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% to close at an all-time high of 8,998, as investors weighed U.S. tariff developments and expectations for UK interest rate cuts.
AstraZeneca shares gained on the back of encouraging drug trial results. UK labor market data showed the fastest rise in job seeker availability since the pandemic, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates in August. Markets are also watching for key inflation data on Wednesday and policy signals from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at Tuesday’s Mansion House speech.
4.05pm: FTSE 100 hits new all-time high
The FTSE 100 has notched another intraday high in recent minutes, topping 8,986.6 with just under half an hour of trading to go.
Top risers on the index are led by Associated British Foods, up 2.4%, followed by precious metals miner Fresnillo.
Next is National Grid, then Standard Chartered, AstraZeneca, IAG, Vodafone, Teso and HSBC.
There's pharma, precious metals, utilities, tobacco and grocery stocks in the top 20, essentially pointing toward investor preference for the index's solid, defensive qualities.
3.40pm: IAG flies higher, fueled by analyst comments
Shares in British Airways owner IAG (LSE:IAG) are up 1.4% today, putting it just outside the top 10 risers in the blue-chip index.
This is becuase JP Morgan has put the airline operator on its 'positive catalyst watch' list, tipping it for further outperformance in the second half of the year.
There are three reasons why IAG stands out compared to other European flag carriers: capacity, passenger numbers to and from the US and premium seating.
3.17pm: Results season kicks in this week
Ashmore, the emerging markets asset manager, was the only FTSE 350 reporter today, with quarterly numbers that were largely inline with consensus forecasts, analysts say.
AUM of $47.6 billion was up 3% on the prior quarter, down 3% year-on-year and as forecast. Around $0.8 billion of headline outflows in the fourth quarter of its financial year, a sharp improvement from the $3.9 billion of outflows in the third, a shade better than consensus.
The outflows primarily came from its blended debt, local currency and corporate debt strategies, while its equity strategies generated net inflows. Market performance of $2.2 billion more than offset the outflows but was slighly less than consensus expectations, said analyst Michael Werner at UBS.
Analyst Stuart Duncan at Peel Hunt felt that AUM was marginally ahead of consensus expectations, driven by investment performance.
"Redemptions have eased off a little but investor risk appetite is still described as subdued," he notes, while highlighting Ashmore pointing to EM ETF flows as typically being a precursor to a pick-up in mutual fund flows.
From tomorrow and into the week, the number of FTSE 350 reporters picks up.
Tuesday's names include Barratt Redrow, B&M, Experian, IntegraFin, NCC Group and SSP Group, while US earnings season brings big banks Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon as well as BlackRock, State Street and Omnicom.
Later in the week, London updates include Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, BHP, Hunting, Intermediate Capital Group, easyJet, Ocado, Qinetic, SSE and Wise.
2.52pm: Mixed start for Wall Street
Wall Street started in the red but many losses have quickly been cut or reversed.
The Dow Jones is up 0.1% now, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite is down almost 0.2%.
Tech mega caps Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple are all in the red, down 1%, 0.2% and 0.8%. Tesla is up 1%, Alphabet 0.6% and Meta 0.5%.
Lifting the Dow, Boeing and Salesforce are up 1.9% and 0.8%.
Boeing shares have risen a preliminary report into the Air India crash did not recommend action against the company.
1.50pm: Sterling, jobs, inflation
The pound is in focus today, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that he believes that the path is downwards for interest rates.
Bailey said the bank will cut rates if employment continues to fall, which he linked to the national insurance increase in the budget last year.
GBP/USD initially fell towards $1.3450 on this report, but it has since picked up to $1.37, where it is still down from the levels at the start of the month around $1.375.
UK and US inflation will be in focus later this week, which will offer more insight into how tariffs and fiscal policies are feeding into prices.
"This is a data heavy week, and US CPI is going to be worth watching," says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
"The market is expecting an uptick in US inflation for June, the headline rate is expected to rise to 2.6% from 2.4%, while the core rate is expected to jump to 2.9% from 2.8%.
"The Fed is looking for larger tariff related price increases to start showing up in the US this summer, however, the relatively small increases in CPI may ease fears about tariff related inflation for now."
Only a modest pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices are likely, says Brooks, though she adds that after years of disinflation, goods price inflation is rising again in the US, although this inflation is "much easier to control than service price inflation".
UK inflation is due on Wednesday is expected to remain around 3.4% for June, roughly unchanged for the third consecutive month, stuck some way above the BoE’s 2% target.
1.14pm: Pubs to benefit from hot weather but Wetherspoons less than others
JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) shares are up 1.5% despite Deutsche Bank putting forward the arguments for selling the shares, based on valuation.
On the sales side, analyst Tim Barrett says pub companies "are an obvious beneficiary of an unprecedented spell of dry, hot weather such as that enjoyed by the UK in June/July".
The Spoons pub estate "does not feature rural beer gardens (like Fuller's) but the positive footfall driver is likely to be universal, including on the high street".
So, he has consequently increased his LFF sales assumption and his PBT forecast for Spoons, also factoring in the most recent share buybacks to earnings per share.
However, looking ahead he expects growth to slow, with margin compression and the absence of buybacks limiting EPS growth in the 2026 new financial year, which makes the P/E of 15.2x "hard to justify in our view".
1.01pm: ABF struts highest
Top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard is Primark owner Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF), which is up 2.5% after it got a thumbs-up from Panmure Liberum, where analyst Anubhav Malhotra upgraded his recommendation on the shares from 'hold' to 'buy'.
He also whacked up his share price target from 1,900p to 2,600p, suggesting there's about 26% upside from the current price of around 2059p.
ABF has long frustrated investors because profits from its Sugar division swing wildly, making it tricky for investors to feel confident.
However, Malhotra says the company has tackled many of these problems head-on, cutting costs, fixing trouble spots, and opening new operations.
12.36pm: Use of AI in different countries
An interesting hitbit on AI usage in different countries overnight.
A Japanese government survey showed that people in the country are using generative AI less than other major economies.
Just under 27% of people in Japan said they had used generative AI in the year to March 2024, which was roughly triple the previous year, with the highest group being 45% usage by people between in their 20s.
But this was compared to 81.2% in China and 68.8% in the US.
The Japanese survey found that 49.7% of companies in the country were planning to use generative AI, which compared to more than 80% in China and the US.
A KPMG survey this year – so around a year after the Japanese survey – found 69% of people in the UK use AI for work, study or personally
12.04pm: FTSE holding onto gains
The FTSE 100 has bumped along at just over a 30-point gain for the past couple of hours.
Over on the Continent, the DAX is down 1% in Frankfurt, the CAC has slipped 0.5% in Paris and IBEX 0.3% in Madrid.
US stocks are heading for small losses, with S&P 500 futures and those for the other main indices, all down 0.3%.
That follows President Donald Trump threatening to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports into the US from 1 August, alongside a similar announcement affecting Mexico.
This is higher than the original tariff rate announced in April of 20% and the 10% that the EU seemed to be expecting - thought markets are thinking that there will be another case of the TACO trade.
UBS economist Dean Turner says: "At this stage, it is unclear whether this is another 'escalate to negotiate' tactic by the president, or if these tariffs will actually be implemented.
"Discussions between the EU and the US have been ongoing for several weeks. While little is known about the likely outcome, sentiment had recently improved, with indications that the EU was preparing to accept an agreement similar to that reached with the UK, where a 10% tariff would apply to most goods, with tariff quotas for certain sectors.
"This latest intervention from the president may prompt the EU to refocus its efforts and prepare for retaliatory measures if an agreement cannot be reached."
Turner says his 'base case' is still that an agreement is likely to be reached before 1 August or that the deadline is extended again while negotiations are ongoing.
"This would probably result in a deal where the US imposes tariffs on EU exports at around 10%. Certain sectors, such as autos, steel, aluminum, and copper, would attract higher tariffs."
11.48am: NIQ IPO confirmed
NIQ Global, the consumer intelligence company, has said today that it is looking raise up to $1.2 billion in its planned initial public offering in New York.
NIQ, formerly known as NielsenIQ, is backed by private equity firm Advent International.
It said in a SEC filing that the number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed IPO have not yet been decided.
A $1 billion funding would value NIQ at about $10 billion, Bloomberg reported at the end of last week.
11.25am: Movers and shakers
Among the small cap movers this morning, Tao Alpha, soon to be renamed Satsuma Technology, jumped nearly 33% following the announcement of crypto guru Henry Elder as the new full-time chief executive officer.
Elder brings extensive experience advising on Bitcoin treasury strategies across multiple regions, the company said, while also revealing a £2.5 million purchase of Bitcoin for its treasury following a recent fundraising.
Pennant International Group PLC (AIM:PEN) shares are up almost 15% following news of key partnerships to boost its Auxilium software suite.
The company has signed a global agreement with Siemens Digital Industries Software, allowing Siemens to distribute Pennant’s GenS technology as part of its Teamcenter Service Lifecycle Management offering.
10.57am: Post Office could be mutualised
The Post Office could be turned into an employee-owned mutual, the government has suggested, as options for a new ownership model are examined in a new 'green paper' report.
Concepts including mutualisation are "on the table for consideration" once the final Horizon inquiry report is published later this year, the Department for Business and Trade said in a statement.
In the green paper, a consultation document to gather public feedback, was published this morning.
The government said it "will move further and faster to deliver a decade of renewal for customers and postmasters", alongside a "cultural reset" led under new Post Office chair Nigel Railton.
10.37am: Bitcoin rising ahead of Washington's 'crypto week'
The US parliament will debate crypto measures this week, alongside Pentagon spending and rescissions of previous spending.
"I believe the bills we will have on the floor this week will protect investors, consumers, and make America as President Trump wants, a leader in financial technology and crypto and digital assets innovation,” House Financial Services chairman French Hill yesterday told CBS.
Republicans are calling this "crypto week" in the House of Representatives, while Democrats are pushing "anti-crypto corruption week".
The opposition party is opposing key parts of the Trump administration's crypto agenda.
Rescissions proposed by Trump include $9.4 billion package of rollbacks to public broadcasting (PBS and NPR) and foreign aid programs.
9.57am: Big sell-off warning for the end of the month
Last year, the period of late July and early August "set the stage for the worst market turmoil of 2024," says Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
"This year, that week looks seriously problematic again from a market perspective," he warns.
First, he notes, the new August 1 tariff deadline are, as others point out below, are clearly not being priced in by markets, so "we may only know the outcome in the final hours, offering the potential for a sharp market reaction and heightened volatility".
As that deadline also falls on a Friday, the first of the month generally brings the US non-farm payrolls report.
Last year that US jobs report "demonstrated that even a modest downside surprise can cause a big selloff, if investors are already jittery", says Allen.
Third, the strategist notes that longer-duration bond yields are going into this period at higher levels than they were a year ago.
Last year the first Friday of August saw the FTSE lose 100 points and then following Monday another 170, following the ISM manufacturing data disappointed every forecast on Bloomberg, and an unexpected jump in US unemployment rate breached the 'Sahm recession indicator', leading to mounting fears about a US slowdown.
9.21am: Anti-US trade coalition forming?
Speculation that a "coalition of defiance could be forming", with nations facing the most onerous tariffs threats ganging up against the US, is mentioned by market analyst Susannah Streeter at Hargreaves Lansdown.
This could intensify the trade turmoil, she says.
"China has already been hard at work finding new trading friends and forging fresh partnerships.
"This strategy has helped its exports, which increased 5.8% year-on-year in June, above expectations."
She says China’s "resilience in the face of tariff adversity is coming to the fore, helped by the big stimulus that authorities have injected into the economy".
9.09am: Chinese trade data lifting miners?
London's big miners are likely to be getting a lift from China data this morning.
China's exports rose 5.8% year-on-year in June in US dollar terms, after climbing 4.8% in May. The consensus forecast was for a 5.0% increase.
The improvement was mainly driven by less negative US export growth, more than offsetting the slowdown in non-US market demand, says economist Kelvin Lam at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The US remained the biggest drag on annual export growth in June despite a slower pace of decline, while exports to non-US markets also lost momentum, led by a sharp deceleration in the EU and LATAM. In contrast, ASEAN and Hong Kong markets saw stronger gains, with Vietnam continuing to be the largest positive contributor within ASEAN.
"Overall, we believe the temporary tariff reprieve granted at the US-China emergency trade talks in London in May has given Chinese exporters some breathing space, with rising front-loading demand from US importers rushing to place orders ahead of the 12 August expiry, which was underscored by survey data recently," says Lam.
He said the stronger-than-expected external trade performance over the past three months is likely to support Q2 GDP growth, due to be published tomorrow, offsetting relatively sluggish domestic demand that has seen a drag from a softer property market.
Looking ahead, the Chinese delegation is reportedly scheduled to meet with US trade officials again in the coming weeks to narrow their differences, though Lam says trade uncertainty remains elevated.
"The new trade agreement between the US and Vietnam includes a 40% tariff on trans-shipped goods — a move clearly aimed at Chinese exporters and designed to further isolate China from global supply chains. The extent of the impact on Chinese exporters will depend on how 'trans-shipment' is ultimately defined, but Beijing has already warned it will retaliate if any clauses are found to harm its national interests."
8.55am: Silver hits highest in 14 years
Silver prices have hit their highest since 2011, which is benefiting various precious metals miners.
In London, the most notable is Mexican miner Fresnillo, while in Australia Sun Silver is up almost 19% and Silver Mines is up 17% while in Hong Kong China Silver Group has gained 14%, and on the China mainland exchanges names like Hunan Silver, Shengda Resources and Baiyin Nonferrous are on the ascent.
Silver reached a 13-year high last week at $38 an ounce, and this morning has continued the climb to above $39 per oz.
Gold is also trading at a three-week high around $3370.
Investors are seeking out safe havens amid Trump’s trade war uncertainty, says market analyst Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor.
After Trump announced a 30% tariff rate on the EU, the bloc suspended its retaliatory 'countermeasures' that had been scheduled to take effect today in hopes of reaching a deal.
Trump’s tariff letter indicated "that we have until the first of August" to conclude negotiations, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said at the weekend.
EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic says the bloc felt it was close to a deal, but warned that 30% tariffs would practically eliminate trade between the EU and US.
"The 30% rate is not being priced by markets – most seem to think that it will be 10-15% by 1 August," says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo.
"Investors mainly expect the TACO trade to play out. But a 30% tariff on the EU would be great for the UK."
Nevertheless, he says "markets are not totally deaf to the noise", as indicated by the DAX fall, with France's CAC down 0.6%.
8.34am: DAX drops hard
Germany's DAX has dropped 209 points or 0.9% in early trading.
This follows US President Trump threatening a 30% tariff for the EU from 1 August.
Biggest faller on the Frankfurt index is online retailer Zalando, down 4.3%, followed by Brenntag, the chemicals and ingredients distributor, down 2.3%.
Carmakers are notable fallers, with Porsche and BMW falling 1.9%, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz dropping 1.6% and 1.5%.
Deutsche Bank, SAP and Siemens are also heavily in the red.
8.15am: FTSE 100 starts higher
The FTSE 100 seems determined not to play second fiddle, rising 18 points or 0.2% to 8,959.6 in initial trades.
This is not far from its record intraday high of 8,984 seen last week.
Top of the leaderboard are precious metals miner Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), up 2.3%, and drugmaker AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN), up 1.9%.
Primark owner AB Foods, life insurer Prudential and miners Rio Tinto, Glencore, Antofagasta and Anglo American are next.
7.47am: Ashmore says investors beginning to rebalance toward emerging markets
An interesting update from Ashmore Group (LSE:ASHM), which reported a 3% increase in assets under management as a positive investment performance, was only partially offset by improving levels of net outflows.
Emerging markets outperformed developed world equity and bond markets in the past quarter, said chief executive Mark Coombs, in part due to the ongoing weakness in the US dollar.
"Consequently, investors are beginning to rebalance portfolios away from heavily overweight US positions towards more attractively valued asset classes, including those in EM," he said.
Recent mutual fund inflows into emerging markets have been concentrated in exchange traded funds, Coombs noted, saying this has previously been "a precursor to broader institutional behaviour".
7.35am: DCC offloads non-core tech business
DCC PLC (LSE:DCC) has struck a deal to sell its technology arm's Info Tech business in the UK and Ireland to private equity for a total enterprise value of roughly £100 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis.
But the net cash proceeds to DCC of the deal are "not material", the FTSE 100 group said, reflecting the working capital seasonality and supply chain financing associated.
Aurelius is the buyer.
Dublin-based DCC said it is keeping the freehold title of the UK national distribution centre in Burnley.
The remainder of DCC Technology, known as Pro Tech, is mainly based in North America, with a smaller business in Europe, and focused on distributing audio-visual and 'Life Tech' products.
7.24am: DAX set to plummet
Donald Trump fired off more tariffs from his trade negotiation bazooka over the weekend, with announcements that the European Union and Mexico would be hit with 30% tariffs from 1 August.
As this is far more than the 10% that the EU expected, Germany's DAX index and other European stock benchmarks are set to plummet this morning.
DAX futures are down a whopping 230 points.
"Trump did leave the door open for further negotiations and some fine-tuning, but given the level of tariffs unveiled since last week, you have to wonder whether it’s worth the time and energy to negotiate with a government that appears to have lost the plot – or if it's better to pursue other deals with other nations," says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
"That’s what the Europeans are now discussing: finding new friends.
"It’s becoming increasingly clear that the UK will be one of the rare privileged partners to retain 10% tariff access to US markets. But even that doesn’t seem to help much."
7.15am: FTSE 100 starting week on back foot as bitcoin keep hitting new highs
The FTSE 100 and other stock indices might start the week playing second fiddle to cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin hitting another high this morning and other cryptocurrencies climbing on its coattails.
London's blue-chip index has been called 7 points lower on the futures market, after reaching its own record high last week within a few whiskers of 9,000, but ending the week with a backwards step to close at 8,941.12.
Likewise, US stocks finished the week in retreat, with the Dow Jones down 0.6%, the S&P 500 falling 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.2%.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan's and India's benchmarks down 0.2% and 0.5%, while the Hang Seng and the Chinese domestic Shanghai Composite stocks index are up 0.4%.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has surged to above $122K this morning, having been under $109K a week ago.
The pound has dropped after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said growing slack in the jobs market should create downward pressure on inflation and so "the path is downward" for interest rates.
In an interview with the Times, Bailey said: "If we saw the slack opening up much more quickly, that would lead us to a different conclusion.
He said the BoE continues to use the words "gradual and careful" in its approach to policy as people say to him "Why are you cutting when inflation’s above target?"
Monday 14 July
The usual quiet start to the week in terms of corporate diary news puts more focus on Ashmore Group PLC, the emerging markets focused fund manager, and its year-end update.
The FTSE 250 group’s fourth-quarter net flows, market performance and commentary are what will be covered here, with the consensus forecast looking for net outflows of around $0.8 billion.
Any management commentary about client behaviour could move the shares too.
Announcements expected:
Trading updates: Ashmore Group
Interims: Brunner Investment Trust
Economic announcements: Balance of Trade (CHN)