ASX 200 futures were down 13 points or 0.15% at 8:30 am AEST, signalling a soft start to the week. The benchmark index closed 22 points lower last week at 8,580, retreating 0.27% after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept rates on hold and US President Donald Trump reignited tariff threats.
Sector performance was mixed, with Real Estate (-3.05%), Information Technology (-1.96%), Consumer Staples (-1.84%) and Health Care (-0.82%) dragging the index, while Utilities (+3.44%), Materials (+0.80%), Telecommunications (+0.20%) and Industrials (+0.08%) provided support. Notable decliners included Lifestyle Communities (-35.09%) and Bannerman Energy (-12.34%), while Iluka Resources (+29.02%) and Johns Lyng Group (+21.87%) were among the top gainers.
Focus this week will be on Thursday’s Labour Force Report for June. Consensus expects a modest gain of 2,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Market pricing reflects a 21-basis-point chance of a rate cut in August and 60 basis points in cumulative cuts by year-end.
US equities dip as tariff tensions escalate
US markets closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.31%, the Nasdaq off 0.38%, and the Dow shedding 457 points (-1.02%). Losses were driven by renewed trade tensions following tariff increases on Brazil and Canada and new 30% levies on imports from Mexico and the European Union, set to take effect on 1 August. Together, these regions account for 45% of total US imports.
US equity futures point to further declines, with expectations for a 0.3% to 0.5% drop at the open. Meanwhile, inflation data due Tuesday is forecast to show core consumer price index (CPI) rising to 3.0% year-on-year. Markets are pricing in 18 basis points of rate cuts at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and 52 basis points by year-end.
European shares slide on bank and healthcare weakness
European bourses ended lower on Friday, led by a 1.8% drop in banking stocks and a 2.4% fall in healthcare. Norway’s DNB sank 8.8% on a quarterly miss.
- The FTSEurofirst 300 fell 1.1% for the session but rose 1.2% for the week.
- In London, the FTSE 100 eased 0.4% but was up 1.3% over the week.
- The DAX is expected to open 0.7% lower today.
Currencies mixed
Currency markets were mixed.
- The Euro rose from US$1.1670 to US$1.1705 and settled around US$1.1690.
- The Australian dollar slipped from US65.90 cents to US65.70 cents.
- The Japanese yen weakened from 146.72 to 147.50 per US dollar.
Commodities firm
Crude oil rallied, with Brent up US$1.72 or 2.5% to US$70.36 per barrel and US Nymex climbing US$1.88 or 2.8% to US$68.45. Weekly gains stood at 3.0% and 2.2% respectively, supported by comments from the International Energy Agency and geopolitical risks.
- Copper rose 0.3% on Friday, capping a 9.1% weekly gain.
- Aluminium fell 0.5% for a weekly loss of 1.3%.
- Gold gained US$38.30 or 1.2% to US$3,364 an ounce, up 0.6% for the week.
- Iron ore slipped by US5 cents to US$96.71 a tonne but rose 0.5% over the week, supported by optimism on steel industry reforms in China.