Shares in SSP Group plc (LSE:SSPG) fell 8.5% after a 'sell' rating was slapped on the operator of airport and railway station concessions by UBS, warning that mid-term expectations now appear "stretched" due to slowing airline capacity growth in key markets.
The FTSE 250 group's shares have climbed by around 12% since its interim results in May, helped by the pricing of the IPO for its Indian joint venture.
However, UBS now forecasts underlying profit (EBIT) and EPS for 2026 to be 7% and 10% below the City consensus, respectively, for the group, which is also the owner of the Upper Crust sandwich chain.
Analysts at the Swiss bank expect lower near-term airline capacity to constrain second-half volume and revenue growth, with US industry data showing a 1% decline in aviation volumes in the quarter to June and Indian airline capacity growth slowing to 6% from 12% in the previous six months.
Capacity in Europe and the UK appears more stable, they noted, with UK rail volumes remaining strong, but this is not seen as enough to offset weakness in the US and India.
As a result, full-year like-for-like revenue growth is forecast at the lower end of the group’s 4–5% target, below consensus at 4.4%.
UBS did raise its share price target to 170p from 165p, but downgraded its rating from the previous 'neutral'.
A potential share buyback remains a possible "upside risk", with the analysts modelling a possible £50 million programme.