There was more to the share price rises in mining giants Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO) and Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) than just copper, analysts said on Thursday.
Copper prices surged this week after former US President Donald Trump proposed a 50% import tariff, but markets had already priced in most of the risk, according to Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price.
The mining bounce today was arguably as much about China as it was about copper, though.
Mining analyst John Meyer at SP Angel pointed to iron ore prices lifting on the back of improving China sentiment, which has long provided support for the sector.
Shanghai property equities surged on rumours of a high-level meeting next week to boost the sector.
Iron ore prices jumped 4% overnight, he noted, with the Singapore 62% Fe index now climbing over $104 per tonne, while wider steelmaking sentiment has been improving in China on plans to crack down on excessive competition and supply in various sectors, including steel.
Xi Jinping made a statement this week on industries being "currently caught in a wave of anti-overcapacity leading to rising prices", Mayer also flags, while coking coal futures have also risen in China to their highest level since May.
Steel inventories are sliding in China, suggesting better-than-expected demand amid a historically weak seasonal period, while a Bloomberg story on property measures helped the China real estate index climb 11%, with parallels drawn to a 2015 conference to support urban planning and infrastructure.
Chinese high-yield bond issuance has risen 23% in 2Q25, on expectations of an economic recovery going forward.
On copper, Price noted that US Comex prices jumped in the past few days to reach a record high near US$12,500 per tonne before pulling back below US$12,200. The price spike drove the Comex-to-LME three-month premium to more than US$2,700 per tonne, which the analyst noted was at least a 28% premium and a new record.
He said the sharp reaction was due in part to ongoing pricing adjustments since Trump first mentioned the tariff in March. Copper prices lifted 10% on Tuesday, but didn’t lift a full 50%, "because markets have already priced in most of the now-realised tariff risk".
The US typically imports 56% of its refined copper supply, mostly from Chile and Canada, Price pointed out, with annual imports valued at US$11-12 billion.
Price forecasts US copper demand will fall 15% year-on-year in 2025, due to rising local prices.
With US refined supply tightening and ex-US exchange stocks depleted, pressure is mounting on domestic mined and scrap sources.