The Australian share market is poised to open lower this morning, after the Reserve Bank surprised markets by holding rates steady and Wall Street traded sideways amid heightened trade tensions.
ASX 200 futures were down 7 points (-0.08%) at 8:30 am AEST, following a volatile session on Tuesday, where the benchmark index shed 25 points in the afternoon before eking out a 1.4-point gain to close at 8,591.
The RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85% came as a surprise to most economists and investors, who had widely expected a 25-basis-point cut. The Australian dollar rallied on the news, while local bond futures sold off sharply.
Meanwhile, global markets continue to monitor the trade landscape after US President Trump extended his reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1, and announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports — sending copper futures soaring 13% overnight.
Wall Street flat as Trump extends tariff deadline
US markets lacked clear direction overnight, with major indices little changed despite fresh trade risks.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.07% to 6,226, the Dow Jones dropped 0.37%, while the Nasdaq managed a 0.03% gain. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up 0.66%.
Investors are still digesting Trump’s latest tariff threats, including a proposed 200% levy on pharmaceuticals and new pressure on semiconductor and tech firms. Markets appear to be betting that some trade deals will still be reached ahead of the August deadline, helping to limit volatility.
In corporate news:
- Moderna led S&P gains, jumping 8.8% on legal support for its vaccine technology.
- Tesla and Samsung drew headlines over Elon Musk’s political activity and profit warnings, respectively.
- Copper producers Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper rallied on soaring prices.
Elsewhere, US bond yields were mixed ahead of this week’s Treasury auctions, while inflation expectations dipped modestly.
ASX edges up despite rate shock
The ASX 200 finished Tuesday essentially flat, up just 1.4 points. But the session was far from quiet.
The index had been tracking higher before the RBA’s 2:30 pm decision triggered a sharp 25-point pullback. Banks gained ground as the Financials Index rose 0.38%, helped by a bounce in CBA shares. Consumer discretionary and telcos also finished in the green.
On the flip side, staples were hit hard, with Woolworths and Coles both falling more than 1.3%, dragging the sector down 1.44%. Utilities and real estate also lagged.
Meanwhile, the Small Ordinaries Index outpaced the broader market, gaining 0.36% to 3,257.60.
In small caps action today:
- Resolution Minerals Ltd (ASX:RML, OTC:RLMLF) received final US Forest Service approval for drilling at the Horse Heaven Project in Idaho, targeting antimony, gold and tungsten. Phase 1 drilling (up to 20 holes) is set to begin in August, pending acquisition completion.
- Novo Resources Corp (TSX:NVO, OTCQX:NSRPF, ASX:NVO) reported high-grade gold hits from maiden drilling at the Tibooburra Project in NSW, with standout intercepts including 12 metres at 5.90 g/t Au. Follow-up RC drilling is now being planned.
- Askari Metals Ltd (ASX:AS2) will host a shareholder webinar on July 15 to discuss its acquisition of the Nejo Gold Project in Ethiopia and outline its strategic plans.
- Orthocell Ltd (ASX:OCC, OTC:ORHHF) achieved record FY2025 revenue of $9.19 million, driven by demand for Remplir™. US rollout is under way with first surgical use completed and a 14-distributor network established across 25 states.
- European Lithium Ltd (ASX:EUR, OTCQB:EULIF) sold 500,000 shares in Nasdaq-listed Critical Metals Corp (CRML) for US$1.625 million. Its remaining stake is valued at over US$200 million based on the sale price.
Copper explodes higher as tariffs bite, gold retreats
It was a big night for commodities, led by copper’s 9.66% surge to US$10,912.80 per tonne, hitting record highs after Trump’s 50% tariff announcement. However, gold fell 1.07% to US$3,301.42 per ounce as safe-haven demand eased slightly.
- Oil (WTI): +0.33% to US$68.14/barrel (bbl); Brent up 0.66% to US$70/bbl.
- Iron ore: +0.35% to US$95.55/t on solid near-term demand from China.
- Nickel: -0.97% to US$15,022/t.
- AUD/USD: Firmed to US$0.6530, up 0.23% after the RBA’s surprise hold.
Bitcoin: +0.34% to US$108,689.
ETF action also highlighted strategic metals strength, with the Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) up 4.83%, Lithium & Battery Tech up 3.3% and Copper Miners 0.7% higher despite some intraday volatility.
What’s on today
Today’s local calendar is lighter after the RBA fireworks. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks this morning, while China’s June inflation data is due at 11:30 am AEST, followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision at noon.
In the US, investors await wholesale inventories data and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, due overnight.