So, are the clouds finally lifting for Glencore? Well, JP Morgan appears to be upbeat, and its assessment of the miner's prospects follows some upbeat recent coverage from other quarters in the Square Mile.
The London office of the American bank has reinstated coverage of Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) with an 'overweight' rating, and a price target of £3.60.
Glencore’s shares have struggled since May last year, down 45% versus the MSCI Europe index.
The culprit? A rough patch of weak results and a slump in coal prices, which fell by more than 25%.
But JPMorgan expects a turnaround. Group production is set to ramp up sharply in the second half of 2025, driven mainly by copper. The result: earnings could jump 150% in 2026 and 250% in 2027 compared with 2025 levels.
Cash returns look promising too. Glencore is expected to return around 6% of its market value this year, with potential excess capital hitting 7% by the end of 2026 and 20% by 2027 if commodity prices climb 10%.
And there could be more upside in coal prices, right now, around 60% of global energy coal supply and 30% of steelmaking coal operate at a loss, suggesting prices might need to rise.
JPMorgan also flags Glencore’s strategic flexibility. There’s talk of a possible coal de-merger, which could act as a catalyst and push the share price up by 15-20% to between £3.50 and £3.70.
After a couple of quiet years tied to merger restrictions, Glencore looks ready to reassert itself. It might be time to pay attention again.
The shares were up 2.4% at 304.88p.