RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley has labelled Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) financial year 2026 (FY26) guidance as “weak” across key metrics, driving investor concern and a 6% fall in the company’s share price to A$17.27.
Barkley noted that FY26 production guidance of 1.7–1.85 million ounces (Moz) was “slightly lower” than consensus estimates of 1.811Moz, despite already softened expectations following a guidance downgrade in the March 2025 quarter.
The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) forecast of A$2,300–2,700 per ounce is approximately 17% above consensus. Moreover, FY26 growth capital expenditure of A$1.14–1.2 billion—plus an additional A$845–A$920 million for the KCGM mill expansion and operational readiness—“wildly missed expectations”, exceeding consensus estimates by roughly A$400 million.
“The June quarter was a little soft,” Barkley added, with gold sales of 444,000 ounces coming in about 2% below expectations. While the company attributes higher costs to sector-wide inflation and necessary development work to support future output, RBC sees limited near-term benefit. “We expect this is unlikely to mitigate the headline blow to FY26 cash flow.”
The company’s operational update highlighted a phased FY26 production ramp-up, with lower output in the September quarter due to planned shutdowns and stronger output expected by June 2026 as growth projects complete.
RBC expects Northern Star shares to trade lower in the near term.