The ASX 200 is expected to open flat this morning, with futures unchanged (+0.00%) as of 8:30 am AEST. With US markets closed overnight for Independence Day and European equities slipping on renewed tariff jitters, local traders are bracing for a subdued, low-volume session.
Investors are weighing a wave of gold production results and broader global risks while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) begins its two-day policy meeting. The rate decision will come tomorrow, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point cut to 3.60%.
Trade uncertainty weighs on global sentiment
With Wall Street offline, European markets bore the brunt of investor anxiety tied to US trade policy. Major indices ended lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.5%, the German DAX off 0.6% and France’s CAC 40 falling 0.8%.
Meanwhile, tensions around the Trump administration’s trade agenda are escalating. The White House has delayed the enforcement of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, giving countries a few more weeks to strike individual deals. But the rhetoric has grown more aggressive, with reports the US will begin sending formal notices this week outlining steep tariffs — potentially up to 70% — on imports from countries that do not reach agreements.
Markets were unsettled but not panicked. European indices finished well off their session lows, and analysts noted that investors appear prepared for a range of scenarios. Still, volatility is creeping back in, and futures markets suggest traders are bracing for choppy sessions ahead.
Gold quarterlies in focus as ASX enters holding pattern
The local sharemarket ended marginally higher on Friday, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 7.2 points or 0.08%, buoyed by broader gains despite weakness in major names like BHP and CBA. The ASX Small Ordinaries Index added 0.095% on the day.
Trading volumes are expected to be light today, with the absence of a US lead and little in the way of domestic earnings or macro news. However, the market is digesting a batch of gold sector quarterly updates, with several major producers reporting FY25 production results that were broadly in line with — or slightly ahead of — guidance.
- Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX:ALK, OTC:ALKEF) delivered 70,100 ounces of gold at its Tomingley operations, in line with its 70–80koz guidance and boosting its cash, bullion and investments position to A$68.3 million.
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) sold 1.634 million ounces, falling within its 1.63–1.66Moz range.
- Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX:RMS) outperformed, with Q4 production of 73.5koz and full-year output slightly above the top end of its 290–300koz range.
- Regis Resources Ltd (ASX:RRL) produced 373koz for the year, inside its 350–380koz guidance band.
The RBA’s July policy meeting begins today, with the board set to announce its decision at 2:30 pm AEST tomorrow. A 25-basis-point cut is widely priced in, with markets expecting further easing in September and December. But any deviation from expectations could shift sentiment quickly.
Also in small caps news today:
- Antipa Minerals Ltd (ASX:AZY) raised A$40 million via a strongly supported placement to advance its Minyari Gold-Copper Project through pre-feasibility and definitive feasibility studies, with a final investment decision targeted for March 2027.
- Dynamic Metals Ltd (ASX:DYM) received heritage and regulatory approvals for a 13-hole RC drill program at its Chalice South gold prospect in WA, with drilling scheduled for completion in the September quarter.
Commodities and currencies mixed as OPEC+ lifts output
Commodity markets were mixed amid thin holiday trading in the US. OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August — well above the expected 411,000. Oil prices eased as a result, with WTI crude down 0.74% to US$66.46 a barrel and Brent crude falling to US$68.29.
Gold was little changed, holding at US$3,335 an ounce, while copper edged 0.41% higher to US$5.04 a pound. Iron ore traded at US$96.24 a tonne after a week of gains driven by renewed optimism for Chinese stimulus.
The Australian dollar slipped slightly overnight to US$0.6552, while cryptocurrency prices firmed. Bitcoin rose 1.15% to US$109,382, and Ethereum (in AUD) climbed 3.3% to A$3,966.
What’s on today
Today’s domestic economic calendar is quiet, with the ANZ-Indeed job ads data due at 11:30 am AEST. Offshore, Germany’s industrial production figures are due at 4:00 pm AEST, followed by eurozone retail sales at 7:00 pm AEST.
On the corporate front, Collins Foods (ASX:CKF) and Katana Capital (ASX:KAT) trade ex-dividend today.