Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM, ETR:XONA) has earned a repeat ‘Buy’ rating from UBS analysts who remain bullish on the energy giant ahead of its second quarter earnings report.
UBS has a $130 price target on ExxonMobil, representing 17% upside on its July 2 closing price of about $111.
Analysts "continue to see ExxonMobil delivering strong operational performance in Q2,” according to a research note.
UBS expects the company to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.66 for the quarter, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.52.
While that figure is lower than the $1.76 EPS posted in the first quarter of 2025, UBS attributes the decline to softer oil prices, partially offset by stronger refining margins and positive mark-to-market impacts.
Mixed performance across business segments expected
Looking at ExxonMobil’s Upstream segment, UBS projects adjusted net income of $5.16 billion, down $1.59 billion quarter-over-quarter but still ahead of the Street’s estimate of $4.71 billion.
Total production volumes are expected to reach 4.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, essentially flat from last quarter and in line with consensus.
Weaker oil prices are expected to be the main drag, with Brent crude averaging approximately $8 per barrel lower than in the first quarter.
This is anticipated to create a $1.3 billion headwind to upstream earnings. Meanwhile, falling natural gas prices, around $0.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Henry Hub and $2.50/mmBtu for Title Transfer Facility, are forecasted to reduce earnings by another $160 million.
The absence of a one-time $100 million gain from divestitures that benefitted first-quarter results will also weigh on the segment.
In Energy Products, this segment is expected to be a bright spot, with forecasted net income of $1.65 billion, nearly double the $827 million posted in the first quarter and ahead of the Street’s $1.15 billion projection.
UBS attributes the improvement to a $3.20 per barrel increase in indicative refining margins and a favorable MTM timing effect due to falling Brent prices.
The report estimates a $640 million earnings boost from stronger margins and includes a $300 million tailwind from MTM timing impacts.
“Based on the relationship between crude oil prices and XOM's timing impact that we've seen in recent quarters, we would expect to see a positive MTM impact of approximately $250 million to $500 million. We include a $300 million tailwind in our forecast,” analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, UBS expects Chemical Products net income of $404 million, up $131 million quarter-over-quarter, though still below the Street's estimate of $477 million. The uptick is attributed to improved volumes and modest margin recovery.
For Specialty Products, the firm projects net income of $674 million, slightly above consensus and up modestly from the first quarter.
ExxonMobil is expected to report its Q2 earnings on August 1.