US lawmakers have passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending legislation, setting the stage for a July 4 signing ceremony and prompting warnings from analysts of global inflation and market volatility.
Dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by Trump, the $3.3 trillion package cements the 2017 tax cuts, increases federal spending on immigration enforcement, restricts social welfare programs, and slashes green energy incentives. It also includes sweeping new tariffs on over 500 categories of imports, ranging from clean tech to electronics.
The bill passed the House late Wednesday after an eight-hour-plus speech from Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Only two Republicans voted against it, including Rep. Thomas Massie, who cited concerns about its long-term impact on the national debt.
“It's going to make this country into a rocket ship,” Trump told reporters.
But analysts warn the bill could destabilize markets and fuel a global inflation cycle.
“This bill throws open the taps on spending while throttling the flow of global goods,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “It’s a high-stakes gamble with inflation—and one that the rest of the world will end up paying for.”
Green called the bill “the most inflationary economic act in over half a century,” noting that no modern US administration has combined this level of deficit expansion with such aggressive trade barriers.
Tariffs on Chinese imports alone are expected to more than double—from 8% to 17.5%—raising costs for manufacturers and consumers. The legislation is projected to push US debt beyond $40 trillion, sparking concerns about foreign appetite for US Treasuries.
“Should that appetite fade, it could raise long-term borrowing costs and increase the likelihood of a market correction,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Markets are already reacting. Long-term yields are rising, gold and Bitcoin have climbed on fears of eroding purchasing power, and oil prices have moved higher. Analysts say the bill complicates the Federal Reserve’s path forward.
“The Fed is cornered,” Green said. “Rate cuts now look premature. If anything, this bill could push them to tighten policy again—right at the point the economy can least afford it.”
Green warned that the global consequences will be far-reaching. “Emerging markets suffer from currency instability. Europe gets higher input costs. And global investors start demanding a premium to hold government debt.”
While Trump officials say the package will restore US industrial strength, Green argues the economic risks are being dangerously downplayed.
“You can’t decouple from global trade without triggering price shocks,” he said.
“This isn’t business as usual. It’s the return of long-term inflation risk—and markets need to adjust. This bill will be remembered as a turning point—just not for the reasons its architects think.”