Americans firing up the grill for Independence Day may find their cookout menus under pressure, as the cost of ground beef continues to climb amid one of the lowest US cattle supplies in decades.
Ground beef prices have risen 7.4% over the past year, driven by a sharp decline in cattle numbers following prolonged drought conditions in the US Midwest, according to Wells Fargo’s Fourth of July Food Report.
The American cattle herd is now at its smallest since the 1950s, tightening supply and pushing retail beef prices to a national average of $6.67 per pound, the American Farm Bureau Foundation said.
That translates to about $13.33 for two pounds of ground beef—enough for roughly eight quarter-pound patties—making burgers an increasingly expensive choice for backyard hosts.
“Hamburgers cooked on the grill are always a crowd pleaser, but this year consumers may want to scale back,” Wells Fargo said in its report.
Despite the price hike, demand for beef remains resilient. The Wall Street Journal reported that US beef sales topped $40.1 billion in 2024, with consumers continuing to prioritize taste and quality even amid inflation. Since 2019, beef prices have jumped 34%, yet it still leads the fresh meat category.
Not all proteins are seeing the same price pressures. Boneless chicken breasts are up just 1% year-over-year, buoyed by ample supply and lower feed costs, while hotdogs—excluding all-beef varieties—are up less than half a percent, according to Wells Fargo.
Other cookout staples are also seeing modest increases. Barbecue sauce is up 2.3%, while prices for hamburger and hotdog buns have dropped 1.5% as retailers offer discounts to attract shoppers.
The total cost of a July Fourth cookout for 10 people is expected to reach $70.92 this year, just shy of last year’s record high and up 19% compared to five years ago, according to the American Farm Bureau.