GSK PLC's (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) long-term growth ambitions hinge in part on Blenrep, its treatment for multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer.
With the company aiming for more than £40 billion in annual sales by 2031, investors are watching closely how this high-margin medicine performs in the clinic and in the market.
Blenrep has had a mixed history. Withdrawn in the United States in 2022 after failing to show sufficient benefit in a confirmatory trial, it has since returned to the spotlight following fresh data.
Two studies, DREAMM-7 and DREAMM-8, have shown promising results, and the US Food and Drug Administration is due to discuss the drug at an advisory committee meeting on 17 July.
UBS analysts recently spoke with three community-based oncologists in the United States, who treat the majority of myeloma patients there.
Their feedback provided what the bank described as "incremental comfort" that Blenrep would secure regulatory approval and carve out a meaningful role in the treatment landscape, particularly in patients who have already received one or more prior lines of therapy.
There are, however, two potential sticking points. First, Blenrep is associated with eye toxicity, which requires regular monitoring. Second, newer treatments are emerging that could reduce demand.
On the first concern, the doctors interviewed by UBS did not think the monitoring requirements were so burdensome as to put them off prescribing the drug.
On the second, they acknowledged increasing competition, but still saw Blenrep as a useful option for certain patients.
UBS continues to forecast peak annual sales of around $2 billion from Blenrep in later-line myeloma, assigning an 80% probability of success. That accounts for just under 3% of the company’s total net present value.
Even though the trials enrolled relatively few American patients, UBS expects the upcoming advisory committee to recommend approval based on the strength of the data.
"All of the oncologists expected that Blenrep regimens would be recommended for approval based on the efficacy demonstrated," UBS said.
With the shares currently trading at 1,413p and UBS setting a 12-month price target of 1,600p, there could be modest upside, but much will depend on how regulators and the broader oncology community respond to Blenrep's second act.
In afternoon trading, the shares were off just under 1% at 1,400.72p.