The ASX 200 is poised to open slightly lower on Thursday, with futures down 11 points (-0.12%) as of 8:30 am AEST, after the benchmark index surged to record territory in the previous session.
Wall Street ended mixed overnight despite another round of record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as attention turns to tonight’s critical US non-farm payrolls report. Commodities rallied broadly, while the Aussie dollar held steady.
Wall Street rides tech gains, braces for payroll test
US equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting new closing highs. Gains were led by tech names, including Tesla (+4.9%), Nvidia (+2.5%) and Apple (+2.2%), buoyed by news of a US-Vietnam trade deal and a bounce in retail-linked stocks.
The Dow Jones dipped slightly (-0.02%), while the S&P 500 rose 0.47% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.94%. Sentiment was supported by lower-than-expected Tesla delivery declines and optimism over the new tariff framework US President Donald Trump reportedly reached with Vietnam.
Still, weaker-than-expected US private payroll figures (-33,000 in June) raised the stakes for the non-farm payrolls report, due at 10:30 pm AEST. Traders are pricing in 110,000 new jobs and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3%. A miss could intensify bets on a Fed rate cut as early as this month.
ASX hits record high as materials and REITs lead
The local market had one of its best days in months on Wednesday, with the ASX 200 climbing 56 points (+0.66%) to close at a record 8,597.7 — narrowly missing the 8,600 mark.
Gains were broad-based, led by real estate (+1.77%) and materials (+1.38%), with support from resource stocks like South32 and Fortescue. Even with information tech lagging (-0.73%), the All Tech index eked out a 0.25% gain thanks to stronger performances among its smaller constituents.
Markets responded positively to a softer-than-expected retail sales print and signs of weak industrial activity, both of which reinforce expectations of a July rate cut — a forecast now supported by ANZ, in addition to the other majors.
In small caps action:
- Solis Minerals Ltd (ASX:SLM, TSX-V:SLMN, OTCQB:SLMFF) appointed HLB Mann Judd as external auditor to support its TSX-V delisting, citing the firm’s experience with junior South American explorers.
- Resolution Minerals Ltd (ASX:RML, OTC:RLMLF) will launch a maiden exploration program this month at its Horse Heaven Project in Idaho, targeting gold, antimony, silver and tungsten.
- Constellation Resources Ltd (ASX:CR1) identified large-scale natural hydrogen potential at its Edmund-Collier project in WA, with soil gas sampling planned across its 87,600km² landholding.
- Titan Minerals Ltd (ASX:TTM, OTC:TTTNF) extended gold-silver mineralisation at its Iguana prospect in Ecuador by up to 800 metres, with trenching results in and drilling ongoing.
- Livium Ltd (ASX:LIT, OTC:LMMFF) flagged a strategic pivot to battery recycling, backed by grants and plans to triple processing capacity. It’s also progressing JV talks with MinRes for its LieNA® tech.
Commodities and currencies
Commodities surged overnight amid trade optimism and geopolitical tensions, with oil jumping over 3% and industrial metals also pushing higher.
- Gold gained 0.72% to US$3,362.49/oz
- Copper surged 2.01% to US$5.15/lb
- WTI crude added 3.00% to US$67.53/bbl
- AUD/USD was flat at 0.6586
- Bitcoin rose 3.26% to US$109,363
Iron ore climbed 1.84% to US$95.13/tonne, hitting a three-week high on renewed stimulus hopes in China.
On the radar today
Locally, May trade balance data is due at 11:30 am AEST, followed by China’s Caixin Services PMI.
The headline event comes later tonight, when the US releases its June non-farm payrolls and factory orders data, a day early due to the Independence Day holiday. Markets are bracing for a soft print following a surprise 33,000 fall in private payrolls reported by ADP.
Also on the US calendar are May trade balance figures, durable goods orders, and the ISM Services PMI, while Microsoft and Tesla headlines continue to ripple through markets.
Back home, the Gemlife IPO — one of the year’s largest — is set to debut at 12 pm AEST, and shares of ALS and Clime Capital trade ex-dividend.