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The Markets
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Nasdaq, S&P 500 notch fresh records ahead of key jobs report

All eyes are now on the highly anticipated June jobs report, due to be released at 8:30am Eastern Time on Thursday

4:15pm: Another record-breaking session

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq powered higher to close at all-time high levels. The S&P 500 added 0.5% at 6,227 points, while the Nasdaq surged 0.9% to 20,393 points.

The Dow Jones was down 10 points at 44,484 points.

All eyes are now on the highly anticipated June jobs report, due to be released at 8:30am Eastern Time on Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday. Analysts on average expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110,000 in June and the unemployment rate to have increased to 4.3%.

3:32pm: Market movers

  • Bombardier shares surged almost 20% after the Montreal-based aircraft manufacturer announced it had received a firm order for 50 Challenger and Global business jets valued at US$1.7 billion, along with a long-term maintenance contract with an undisclosed first-time buyer.
  • Rivian Automotive shares moved lower as it reported a nearly 23% year-over-year drop in second quarter vehicle deliveries.
  • Centene shares fell almost 40% after the healthcare company withdrew its full-year 2025 financial guidance due to weak growth and higher-than-expected costs in its Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace business.
  • Nike shares moved higher after US President Donald Trump announced that the country has reached a trade deal with Vietnam.
  • Synchronoss Technologies, a global provider of personal cloud solutions, announced that it has been added to the Russell 2000 index, effective as of the opening of US markets on Monday, June 30.

2:38pm: Nasdaq leads stocks higher

US stocks have largely recovered after an initial wobble on Wednesday.

"A decline in US private payrolls - the first since March 2023 - ahead of Thursday's non-farm payrolls provoked a brief dip in US indices before these recovered as US job cuts fell sharply in June,” IG senior technical analyst Axel Rudolph said in a statement.

The Nasdaq led the gains, up 0.8% as the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow Jones was little changed at 44,473 points.

1:22pm: EV deliveries drop

Both Tesla and Rivian reported a double-digit drop in electric vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, highlighting ongoing industry challenges.

Tesla reported a 14% year-over-year decline in Q2 deliveries, totaling approximately 384,000 vehicles, just shy of Wall Street’s forecast. Still, production outpaced deliveries at around 410,000 units.

Wedbush analysts noted improving demand in China, particularly for the updated Model Y, and expressed optimism about Tesla’s long-term prospects in autonomous driving.

Rivian, meanwhile, saw Q2 deliveries fall nearly 23% year-over-year to about 10,600 vehicles. While that marked a sequential increase from Q1, production slowed to just under 6,000 units as the company prepared for its 2026 models.

12:07pm: US-Vietnam trade deal reached

The United States has reached a trade deal with Vietnam, US President Donald Trump announced in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

The US will impose a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam, a reduction from the initially proposed 46% tariff announced in April 2025.

Vietnam will impose a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods, products routed through Vietnam from other countries, notably China, to prevent circumvention of US tariffs.

In exchange, Vietnam will open its market to US products with zero tariffs.

The deal was reached before the July 9 deadline, when a pause on reciprocal tariffs would have expired.

Retail and footwear companies with significant production in Vietnam initially popped on the news but pared their gains as details of the deal were revealed. Nike was up about 3.4%, while Swiss sportswear brand On Holding added 2.8%.

The three major stock indexes reversed course from earlier in the session, with the Nasdaq up 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Dow Jones added 0.1%.

11:05am: Powell brushes off Trump pressure

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated patience when it comes to interest rate cuts, refusing to cave in to US president Donald Trump’s demands that the central bank lower interest rates immediately.

Speaking at the ECB’s global central bank conference in Sintra, Portugal, Powell reiterated the need for patience when it comes to monetary policy and to wait for an expected increase in inflation to occur.

“He would not commit to a July rate cut, which highlights his ability to withstand pressure from President Trump who is pushing for aggressive rate cuts,” said Kathleen Brooks, XTB research director.

“There is still only a 20% chance of rate cut from the Fed in July, with a 90% chance of a cut in September. Those expecting an early summer cut could be disappointed.”

9:55am: Unconvincing start, Dow down and Nasdaq up

Wall Street has opened unconvincingly on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 was flat after just over 20 minutes of trading, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%.

Nvidia, Apple and Tesla all gained, up 0.8%, 1.7% and 3.1%, but more of the rest of the S&P top 20 were in the red, though not many moving more than 1%.

Biggest faller on the S&P was Centene, with shares plunging 35% after the health insurer pulled its full-year guidance.

9:06am: ADP report 'useless'

The drop in ADP’s measure of private payrolls "tells us very little about the likely outturn for tomorrow’s official payrolls estimate for June", says economist Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

This is "mostly because ADP’s forecasting track record is dire", with the report underestimating the initial estimate of private payrolls by just over 100K in both April and May, which was "far from unusual".

ADP’s forecast error has averaged 87K and has been as big as 348K since its methodology was overhauled in 2022, Allen adds.

But rather than add 100K or so to the June ADP estimate to gauge official payroll growth from the official non-farm payrolls scheduled for tomorow, "we’re inclined to ignore it", he says.

"We are sticking with our forecast for a 100K increase in private payrolls in June, still a material step down from the average 197K initially reported rise over the previous six months, but probably strong enough to rule out a July rate cut."

Pantheon sees the Federal Reserve waiting until September to make its next interest rate cut.

8:57am: US stocks called lower after ADP drop

US stocks are set for a mixed start on Wednesday as the dollar rose after weaker than expected jobs data.

Futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.2% and those for the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4%, while Dow Jones futures were flat.

The previous session, the Nasdaq Composite had fallen 0.8% and the S&P dropped 0.1% from its recent record high, both dragged down by a 5.3% fall for Tesla after boss Elon Musk's spat with Donald Trump was reignited. The Dow rose 0.9%.

This was despite President Trump's tax and spending bill passing the Senate with a 51-50 vote, with the revised bill now going back to the House and needing to be passed by both chambers of Congress before it can reach President Trump’s desk by his deadline of Friday.

Following yesterday's JOLTS job openings report, which pointed to a tighter labour market than previously thought, this morning saw the ADP private payrolls report.

This showed the US economy lost 33,000 jobs in June, well below forecasts for a gain of 99,000 and the lowest monthly total since February 2022.

It followed a downward revision for May, when 29,000 jobs were added, compared to a previously reported increase of 37,000.

The US dollar index climbed 0.2% to just over 97 points, while the USD/JPY recovered its entire losses from the day before.

While the ADP report is "no oracle for official payrolls, markets have moved a little sharply on the back of this sharp miss", said market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at City Index.

"Tariff threats also loom, with Trump sticking to a 9 July deadline. While markets suspect another last-minute climbdown, any renewed trade tension still poses a headwind for the dollar."

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