UBS has maintained its 'buy' recommendation on AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN), setting a 12-month price target of 10,121p, reflecting confidence that a wave of late-stage clinical readouts will provide fresh share-price catalysts after a period dominated by patent expiries and pricing headwinds.
Stepping into the third quarter of 2025, AstraZeneca faces what UBS describes as “a busy quarter” of pivotal phase III data releases.
Five readouts, spanning cardiovascular, rare disease, respiratory, neurology and oncology, could swing sentiment decisively either way.
UBS’s proprietary “Pharma Values” framework assigns just over 3% of the group’s net present value to these studies, noting that big-pharma stocks often move two to three times the NPV change on key trial outcomes.
Underpinning UBS’s optimism are peak-sales forecasts that assume moderate but meaningful success probabilities.
Baxdrostat, its novel aldosterone synthase inhibitor for resistant hypertension, is modelled at $3 billion in peak sales on a 60% chance of success.
Anselamimab, the light-chain amyloidosis antibody, also carries a 60% success probability against $1.5 billion of potential revenues.
Meanwhile, respiratory stalwart Fasenra, neurology hopeful gefurulimab and the Dato-DXd antibody-drug conjugate in triple-negative breast cancer each sit in the $1 billion–$1.25 billion range, with success probabilities between 40%-60% range.
With the share price trading close to UBS’s target, pure capital appreciation may be limited if trial news simply meets expectations.
As a result, the total-return case leans on AstraZeneca’s reliable dividend and the potential for upside surprises in its pipeline.
For investors seeking a blend of income and growth, the next few months promise plenty of data to digest, and perhaps, an opportunity to see whether the bank’s bullish stance pays off.