The ASX 200 is poised for a modest dip this morning despite a solid lead from Wall Street, where key benchmarks posted fresh all-time highs. Futures were down 6 points or 0.07% at 8:30 am AEST, following a 0.33% gain for the local index on Monday — rounding out a strong June and third consecutive monthly rise.
Global markets kicked off the new quarter on a positive note, buoyed by signs of progress in trade negotiations. Canada’s decision to withdraw its digital services tax helped revive talks with the US, while the EU looks set to accept a deal featuring a 10% universal tariff on key exports. US sharemarkets have now rebounded from losses after US President Donald Trump’s sweeping announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in April, with the S&P 500 up more than 9% and hitting new highs.
Still, tariff risks linger, with the July 9 deadline looming and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning penalties could proceed even if negotiations are ongoing.
Investors also continued to digest signals from the Fed. While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained expectations for just one cut this year, markets remain hopeful that softening data and Trump’s public pressure campaign will push rates lower in the months ahead.
Wall Street rallies to record highs
US equities ended the second quarter strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes each climbing 0.5% to new record closes, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%.
Optimism about a potential US-EU trade deal and ongoing tech momentum underpinned the rally. Oracle jumped 4% on news of a massive cloud services contract worth US$30 billion annually from FY28, while Meta and Microsoft also advanced on fresh AI developments. Meanwhile, Robinhood surged after launching tokenised US stock and ETF trading in the EU.
Treasuries firmed across the curve despite hawkish Fed rhetoric, with the 10-year yield easing to 4.23%, its lowest level in about two months. The US dollar weakened, supporting a modest lift in gold prices.
ASX and small caps
The ASX 200 closed 28 points higher or up 0.33% on Monday at 8,542, with strong gains across healthcare and industrials helping offset softer materials stocks. The index ended June up 1.28% — its third straight monthly gain and a record monthly close.
In a relatively quiet day for corporate news, Suncorp reported that its FY26 catastrophe reinsurance program will cost less than the prior year, maintaining its target margin of 10–12%. Domain’s scheme meeting received an independent tick, with the CoStar offer deemed “fair and reasonable” within the $4.06–4.46 valuation range.
The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index rose 0.36% on Monday to 3,247.70. In small caps action today:
- Sprintex Ltd (ASX:SIX) extended $2.85 million in loans and convertible notes, boosting flexibility ahead of a potential €4.8 million deal with Dutch veal producer Van Drie Group.
- Orthocell Ltd (ASX:OCC, OTC:ORHHF) posted record quarterly revenue of $2.73 million, driven by demand for its Remplir™ nerve repair device in Australia, with US sales expected to ramp up in FY26.
- Cyprium Metals Ltd (ASX:CYM, OTC:CYPMF) received a $2.5 million progress payment for surplus generator sales, with final completion now expected in Q3 amid trade-related delays.
- Krakatoa Resources Ltd (ASX:KTA) raised an additional $357,000 via a top-up placement, lifting its June funding total to $1.66 million.
Commodities and currencies
Gold and uranium both rebounded overnight, supported by a weaker greenback and renewed safe-haven interest. Oil prices slipped on easing Middle East tensions and ahead of a potential OPEC+ output hike this weekend.
- Gold gained 1.1% to US$3,304/oz
- WTI crude fell 0.8% to US$64.99/barrel
- Iron ore was flat at US$94.47/tonne
- AUD/USD held steady near 0.6581
What’s on today
Markets will watch several macro data prints today, including China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (11:45 am AEST), Eurozone inflation, and US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job openings later tonight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak.
In Australia, Ricegrowers trades ex-dividend and May manufacturing and home price data is on the docket.