DoorDash Inc (NYSE:DASH) has earned a price target boost from Oppenheimer analysts, who raised their price target to $280 from $220, citing stronger-than-expected third-party data and an uptick in advertising revenue that signals accelerating profitability.
Shares of DoorDash traded up about 2% at $246 on Monday afternoon.
The analysts maintained their ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in adjusted EBITDA through 2027.
Oppenheimer’s revised model incorporates an expanded advertising opportunity, projecting $2.6 billion in ad revenue by 2027, up from roughly $1 billion today, based on just 2% of DoorDash's gross bookings, in line with current levels at Uber.
While grocery expansion is expected to dilute the core take rate by 70 basis points, analysts still see EBITDA margins improving from 2.8% of gross bookings in 2025 to 3.5% in 2027.
“We see multiple paths for DoorDash to reach $4.5 billion in 2027 EBITDA, even excluding the pending Deliveroo acquisition,” the analysts wrote, noting DoorDash’s strategic flexibility to either reinvest advertising profits into lower-margin categories like grocery or preserve margin expansion through a leaner model.
Third-party data from Apptopia indicates that second-quarter order growth is tracking at 18.6% year-over-year, above Oppenheimer’s prior estimate of 16% and in line with the Street’s consensus.
That strength prompted a 1% bump to the firm’s FY25 gross order value (GOV) forecast and a 2% increase for FY26.
Although not yet included in their formal model, the analysts estimate that the acquisition of Deliveroo could boost 2027 EBITDA by 9%, assuming Deliveroo’s gross order value grows at a 5% CAGR and reaches margin parity with DoorDash by then.
This would imply a purchase multiple of about 7x 2027 EBITDA for the UK-based delivery firm.
DoorDash’s updated valuation reflects a 23x multiple on 2027 EBITDA including Deliveroo, representing a 36% premium to peers, which Oppenheimer argues is justified by the company’s expected 51% faster organic EBITDA growth from 2024 to 2027.
That compares to Spotify and Netflix trading at roughly 32x and 30x, respectively.