Burberry Group PLC (LSE:BRBY) looks set to deliver a much-needed shot in the arm when it reports first-quarter results on 18 July.
UBS is forecasting a stabilisation in like-for-like sales and expects full-year growth to accelerate to 5%, supporting a modest upgrade to earnings forecasts for 2027 and 2028.
The investment bank describes Burberry as “the only viable self-help story in our coverage universe for now” and has maintained its 1,400p price target.
Like-for-like, or LFL, sales are a key metric in retail. They compare revenue from shops that have been open for at least a year, stripping out the impact of new store openings or closures. After six consecutive quarters of falling LFLs,
Burberry only needs to stabilise this figure to show that the business is moving in the right direction. In the final quarter of its last financial year, comparable sales fell 6%.
UBS believes the company will break that streak in the July update, helped in part by easier comparisons and some signs of returning demand.
Broader analyst sentiment is more muted. While UBS is confident that a brand turnaround is taking hold, the wider consensus is mixed.
Jefferies, HSBC and Barclays have all nudged up their price targets in recent weeks, with HSBC also now targeting 1,400p.
Jefferies said the quarter “should confirm the brand’s newfound (relative) resilience.”
But of the roughly 20 sell-side analysts covering the stock, only around a third currently rate it a buy.
The average 12-month price target sits closer to 1,080–1,100p, roughly 5–10% below the current share price.
The upcoming results will give a clearer picture of whether momentum is building in the right areas. UBS is keeping a close eye on the sources of any LFL gains, particularly whether they come from full-price sales or deeper promotions.
There is also interest in how different groups of shoppers are behaving.
In the last quarter, European locals were spending again, but US and Chinese consumers were still cautious. If June’s trading showed an improvement, Burberry could enter the second quarter with some tailwinds behind it.
Pricing in the US will also be under the microscope, especially given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariff changes. Any update on the wholesale order book, especially for the second half of the year, would also be closely watched by the market.
A strong Q1 result would make Burberry stand out in a sector where growth has been hard to come by.
The shares trade on a price-to-earnings multiple of 26 for calendar 2026, falling to 17 for 2027. UBS projects compound annual growth of 6% in sales and 85% in earnings out to 2028, suggesting a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of around 1.
There are still risks. Other analysts remain cautious, warning that Burberry must show more than just a short-term recovery in sales.
Margin pressures, softening luxury demand and ongoing restructuring efforts all pose potential headwinds. But for now, UBS is placing its bet on a turnaround, and July’s results could be the first solid proof that it is underway.