4:07pm: Record-breaking session
Hopes the US will soon reach trade agreements with the European Union and Canada among others buoyed stocks on Monday.
The S&P 500 added 0.5% at 6,204 points – another record for the index. The Nasdaq was up 0.5% at 20,369 points and the Dow Jones was up 0.6% at 44,094 points.
3:38pm: Market movers
- Robinhood Markets shares jumped almost 12% after the trading platform expanded its crypto and stock trading offerings in the European Union.
- Oracle shares rose almost 5% on Monday, reaching an all-time high of around $222 on the news it has signed several large cloud services deals, including one which is expected to generate more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in fiscal year 2028.
- INmune Bio shares plummeted almost 60% following disappointing results from a Phase 2 clinical trial of its experimental Alzheimer's drug, XPro.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares rose on Monday after the US Department of Justice approved its $14 billion all-cash acquisition of Jupiter Networks.
- Joby Aviation shares took off on the news that the electric air taxi company has successfully completed a series of piloted vertical-takeoff-and-landing wingborne flights in Dubai.
- GMS shares jumped almost 12% after it was revealed it is being acquired by Home Depot's specialty trade distribution subsidiary SRS.
- Shares in Seeing Machines rose 10% after the driver monitoring technology company announced a new agreement with Mitsubishi Electric Europe to boost sales of its Guardian Generation 3 system across the continent.
- Shares in Guardian Metal Resources rose 4% on Monday after the company reported high-grade tungsten and gallium mineralisation across multiple zones at its Tempiute project in Nevada.
- Argo Blockchain shares plummeted 62% on Monday after the company unveiled a sweeping restructuring plan that will see existing shareholders’ equity cancelled.
2:58pm: Proactive news headlines
- T Stamp, doing business as Trust Stamp, has announced a strategic partnership with Neural Payments, a company offering real-time peer-to-peer payment solutions to banks and credit unions.
- Zynex has announced the appointment of Steve Dyson as chief executive officer, marking a new chapter for the medical technology company founded in 1996 by its outgoing CEO, Thomas Sandgaard.
- Liberty Star Uranium & Metals announced that it has initiated a three-dimensional induced polarization (3D IP) geophysical survey at its Red Rock Canyon gold project, located within the Hay Mountain project area in southeastern Arizona.
- Medicus Pharma has agreed to acquire Antev, a UK-based drug developer working on treatments for prostate conditions, in a share-based deal that could be worth up to US$65 million in future milestone payments.
- First Phosphate, the Quebec-based mineral development firm, plans to raise at least $2 million in a private share placement to a strategic investor, aiming to support exploration work and general corporate activities.
- Protalix Biotherapeutics announced that it has been added to the Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 Indexes, effective after the US market closed on Friday, June 27.
- Valdor Technology International a provider of advanced fiber optic components, announced that its CEO, Dorian Banks, has stepped down from his role and resigned from the company’s board of directors.
2:25pm: No stagflation says Fed’s Goolsbee
The recent tariff hikes have had a milder economic impact than expected, according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025, he noted that if inflation remains contained, the economy could return to its pre-April trajectory, opening the door to potential rate cuts.
However, he emphasized the Fed needs several more months of data to fully evaluate tariff effects on prices and investment.
Goolsbee dismissed fears of 1970s-style stagflation, citing stable inflation and low unemployment, but warned that further trade escalations could delay monetary easing.
He also reaffirmed the Fed’s independence amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. "The Federal Reserve will continue to rely on economic data to guide its decisions away from external pressures,” he said.
1:13pm: Risks linger despite rally
Despite softening economic indicators, US equities are trading near record highs. The S&P 500 is up 10% in Q2, the Nasdaq 17%, and even the broader Russell 3000 has gained 10% this quarter. Importantly, this rally has been more inclusive than the tech-led surge of 2024, according to XTB research director Kathleen Brooks.
“This rally is no longer just about Nvidia or Big Tech,” Brooks said. “The equal-weighted S&P 500, Russell 2000, and sectors like construction and entertainment have all outperformed recently.”
Crypto stocks are also playing a role. Coinbase is the top performer on the S&P 500 this quarter, rising over 100% amid a surge in Bitcoin prices. “The breadth of this rally suggests there’s more underlying strength, though bubbles remain a concern,” Brooks added.
Still, investors will soon turn their attention to earnings. The Q2 season begins in mid-July, and S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow just 5% year-over-year, the slowest since late 2023.
Notably, 11% of companies have issued negative guidance, raising the question of whether the bar has been set low enough to allow for upside surprises.
“If companies beat expectations, even slightly, it could keep the momentum going into Q3,” Brooks wrote.
12:22pm: Finishing Q2 trading strong
The FTSE 100 finished the final day of Q2 trading 27 points lower at 8,771 points. It was a different story on the other side of the Atlantic, where Wall Street saw record highs.
“A wide gulf has opened between European stocks and their US counterparts today, as the final trading day of the quarter arrives,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“While US stocks have Fed cuts and the likely passage of the budget bill to look forward to, European names continue to fret about a possible trade showdown with the US. It’s never wise to read too much into the movements at quarter-end, and the lack of news flow only compounds the problem.”
Looking back on Q2, Beauchamp described it as a “remarkable journey” for markets and investors alike.
“From the terrifying lows of April to the dizzying heights of the past week, the rebound has caught many by surprise,” he said. “As we head into Q3, investors are still fretting about inflation and a possible recession, but these threats seem much less imposing than they did three months ago.”
11:27am: Canada walks back DST
The Government of Canada has announced it will rescind its controversial Digital Services Tax (DST) to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States.
The decision comes just one day before the DST was set to take effect on June 30, 2025.
The 3% tax targets digital giants, such as Amazon, Google, Meta, and Apple. It applied to revenues exceeding $20 million annually generated from Canadian users, potentially costing affected companies upwards of $2 billion.
While it was conceived as an interim measure to address perceived inequities in taxing large tech firms operating in Canada, it quickly became a flashpoint in cross-border relations.
US President Donald Trump strongly opposed the DST, calling it a “direct and blatant attack” on American businesses, and immediately suspended trade negotiations as a result.
Trade talks between the two nations are expected to resume immediately, with both sides targeting a framework agreement by July 21.
10:42am: Jobs report to test rally
As US markets enter a shortened trading week ahead of the July 4 holiday, investors are bracing for a critical batch of economic data, renewed trade negotiations under the Trump administration, and early signals ahead of the second quarter earnings season.
The main event this week being watched by investors is the release of June’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is widely viewed as a potential turning point for the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
Moved up a day due to the Independence Day holiday, the June jobs data is expected to show a cooling labor market, with consensus estimates calling for job gains around 100,000 to 110,000.
“The main focus for market participants will undoubtedly be the June employment report,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note. “We expect payroll gains to slow somewhat relative to their recent averages.”
Deutsche Bank economists pointed to weaker initial jobless claims and seasonal hiring trends as the basis for their forecast. “Private sector hiring tends to drop off in the summer,” they wrote. “Last year, the June to August period saw hiring more than 65% below its January to May pace.”
Unemployment is forecast to tick up to 4.3%, while wage growth is expected to hold firm at 3.9% year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve remains in a data-dependent stance, and softer jobs data could tilt the scales toward a rate cut sooner than September.
“Even modest payroll gains could tighten the labor market given demographic shifts,” analysts noted.
With some Fed officials, including Governors Bowman and Waller, signaling openness to a July cut, a weak jobs report may accelerate policy easing.
However, Chair Jerome Powell has so far echoed a more cautious tone. He is scheduled to speak on Tuesday and may reiterate that inflation, especially tariff-related, remains a concern.
9.55am: New all time highs
US stocks have opened higher, but not as much as futures were indicating.
The S&P 500 has notched a new all-time high anyway, climbing to 6,195 in early trading but easing off slightly to a 0.2% gain.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 jumped to just under 22,655, a new peak, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.2%.
The Dow Jones is up 0.4%, holding onto its initial gains. Goldman Sachs, Disney and JPMorgan Chase are the top risers.
8.05am: US stocks tipped to climb
US stocks have been tipped to climb to more new record highs on Monday, as Wall Street begins a holiday-shortened week with the US dollar remaining under pressure.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are set to notch new all-time highs, with up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, with futures for the blue-chip Dow Jones up 0.5%.
At the end of last week, the S&P and Nasdaq 100 hit fresh record highs, while the Dow reached its highest levels since March.
It's a holiday-shortened week for Wall Street due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday, which means a rare Thursday outing for the big non-farm payrolls data report and other macroeconomic data pulled forward by a day, too.
European major indices continued their mainly sideways moves, which began in May with the "relatively muted tone reflects investor caution ahead of key economic releases later in the week", said market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation, particularly the US NFPs.
"While sentiment remains positive, trading volumes are likely to be light as traders wait for more decisive market-moving catalysts."
The DXY dollar index continues to trade around lows last seen in February 2022, having dipped below 97 points in the early hours.
The week will see a focus on central banks, with a forum starting today in Sintra, Portugal, running through to Wednesday with figures including the Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell, ECB's Christine Lagarde, Bank of England's Andrew Bailey and others.
JPMorgan strategists noted that the pricing-in by the market of Fed easing is "heating up" - as investors refocus on the timing and the likely impact, with anticipation of cuts accelerating in the past couple of weeks as President Trump increased pressure on Powell and some FOMC members signalled they are prepared to cut.
Three scenarios are suggested by the strategists: the Fed cuts as activity is weakening, or it cuts as no inflation is coming through from implemented tariffs and activity stays resilient, or the Fed cuts despite some inflation pressure showing up, potentially against the background of the US administration’s push for lower rates that are constructive for equity markets.
While the first is "Goldilocks", the third could see Fed credibility undermined and inflation expectations increase, hitting the dollar too.
In company news, the weekend saw Trump suggest a buyer has been found for TikTok’s US operations, though he said only that this would be a group of "very wealthy people".
The sale would require approval from China and President Xi Jinping, the US President noted in a TV interview.