Shares of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (TSX:AUP)(NASDAQ:AUPH) jumped 6.8% to $8.57 on Thursday afternoon as investors looked ahead to the company’s first clinical data update for its experimental autoimmune drug AUR200, which Jefferies said could carry significant strategic value.
Jefferies upgraded its outlook on the BAFF/APRIL dual inhibitor, noting the upcoming results from a single ascending dose (SAD) study in healthy volunteers could provide important insight into safety, pharmacokinetics and the company’s development roadmap.
“This will be AUPH’s first clinical disclosure for this asset, and we expect healthy volunteer SAD data as well as insight into development/indication plan,” analysts wrote, highlighting the drug’s potential to compete with similar assets from Vera Therapeutics, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (via Alpine Immune Sciences), and China-based Remegen.
The firm sees a potential stock move of +25% to –10% depending on the quality of the data. A base-case outcome, where AUR200 shows a profile in line with other BAFF/APRIL inhibitors, could yield a 10% upside in shares, while a bull-case scenario—where the drug matches or exceeds Vertex’s $4.9 billion-valued povetacicept—could drive a 25% gain.
Conversely, Jefferies assigns a 30% probability to a bear-case scenario if the results are unclear or underwhelming.
While preclinical data for AUR200 suggested stronger activity than telitacicept and atacicept, Jefferies cautioned against over-reliance on those results due to methodological differences and the age of the data.
With little publicly known about the trial design—the study is not posted on ClinicalTrials.gov and it’s unclear whether multiple ascending dose (MAD) data will be included—analysts said the readout could serve as a critical benchmark for Aurinia’s ambitions in rare and orphan autoimmune diseases.
“The strategic potential here is worth watching,” the firm added.