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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Finance

Trump mulls early Powell replacement, raising concerns over central bank independence

US President Donald Trump is considering announcing a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as early as this summer, months ahead of Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday evening.

According to the report, Trump could reveal his final decision by September or October, in a move seen by some as an effort to undercut Powell’s authority during a volatile period for US monetary policy.

The shortlist reportedly includes Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, David Malpass, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

“I know within three or four people who I’m going to pick,” Trump said Wednesday, without naming specific candidates.

While a White House official noted that no decision is imminent, Trump retains the prerogative to change course, especially amid growing frustration with Powell’s resistance to interest rate cuts.

The prospect of an early announcement drew concern from some quarters of the financial sector. “The real threat to US inflation now is tariffs, and there’s been little progress on that front,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Fed Chair Powell keeps insisting the US doesn’t need to rush into rate cuts until there’s more clarity on trade policy. But no one listens — even less so now, as there’s growing concern that Trump could prematurely appoint the next Fed Chair to sideline Powell, who has resisted rate cuts.”

The Fed’s current benchmark interest rate sits between 4.25% and 4.5%, a level Trump has called “totally unacceptable.” In recent days, he has stepped up verbal attacks on Powell, referring to him on social media as a “Total and Complete Moron” and demanding that Congress “work this very dumb, hardheaded person, over.”

Powell, appearing before lawmakers in the Senate on Wednesday, defended the Fed’s cautious stance, saying the central bank is “well-positioned to wait” before moving on rates, given lingering uncertainty about how Trump's tariffs may affect the inflation outlook.

Fed Governor Austan Goolsbee downplayed the market implications of an early announcement, telling CNBC that such a move “would have no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee.”

Still, analysts warn that markets could react sharply to signs of political pressure on monetary policy. “Cutting rates doesn’t guarantee yields will fall,” Ozkardeskaya said. “If markets perceive a policy mistake, yields could disconnect from the policy rate — that’s called a loss of credibility.”

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