Deutsche Bank has reiterated its 'buy' rating on Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN), calling the stock a valuation standout and arguing that market concerns over government policy risks are overdone.
The bank has set a target price of 580p, more than double the current share price of 274p.
Trainline shares surged through 2024 on a series of earnings upgrades, particularly from strong UK trading.
But 2025 has brought renewed pressure, with investors unsettled by political signals pointing to a centralised ticketing platform under Great British Railways (GBR). Deutsche Bank says that risk is being "materially overstated" at current valuation levels.
"Operational performance in the UK has been stand-out," wrote analyst Gareth Davies, who also noted that recent weakness offers a fresh entry point.
The UK remains the engine of growth for Trainline, and Deutsche has detailed forecasts for the domestic business, including the impact of the Oval expansion and a planned reduction in commission rates.
While the cut in commissions will weigh on revenue growth in the 2026 and 2027 financial years, the bank believes other drivers could offset that drag. These include a possible pick-up in volumes and stronger momentum in new service areas.
In Deutsche Bank’s view, the pullback in the shares reflects a misunderstanding of the political risk, not a deterioration in fundamentals.
With the business delivering solid results and trading well below its target price, the analysts see the current share price as a mispricing that will correct over time.