- FTSE 100 climbs 17 points
- Shell says it is not interested in buying BP
- US dollar falls to three-year low after Trump pressure on Fed
4.59pm: FTSE in the green
The FTSE 100 Index edged up 0.2% to close at 8,736, gaining 17 points on the day.
4.11pm: FTSE seeing slightly more buyers than sellers
Since late morning, the FTSE 100 has wormed its way between a gain of 0.2% and 0.4%.
It's about in the middle of that now, with a few minutes of trading to go.
Miners are driving the gains, with Anglo American, Antofgasta and Glencore up 7.1%, 5.6% and 5.5% respectively.
Investment group 3i Group (main investment a Dutch discounter), bookmaker Entain, wealth manager St James's Place and retailer JD Sports are next, all uop betweem 4% and 5%.
Holding the index back are some heavyweight fallers, with several of the index's top 10 in the red.
Consumer products groups Unilever and British American Tobacco are the big losers, both down over 2%, followed by other drugs and medicines makers Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Haleon, and Reckitt Benckiser.
Banks, led by HSBC and NatWest, along with other drugs and defensive names are also in the red.
A weaker dollar has been one of the big stories of the past day and a half, fuelled by Donald Trump putting pressure on Fed chief Jerome Powell.
The pound is up 0.5% to $1.3737, around its highest levels since early 2022.
3.39am: US data doesn't rattle stocks
Earlier there was a raft of US economic data released, which was rather mixed, but has not rattled Wall Street.
The big number, though backwards-looking, is that US GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter.
This was worse than the 0.2% decline previously estimated, with the details "more troubling because of the downward revision to real final sales to domestic purchasers, the engine of the economy," says Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics.
"The larger-than-anticipated downward revision to Q1 GDP doesn’t warrant a significant change to our near-term forecast, but our attention turns to Friday’s release of monthly personal spending, as it will show how the revisions impacted the trajectory of consumption headed into this quarter."
Revisions to consumer spending were led by recreation services and transportation services, both components that Sweet says are sensitive to shocks in consumer sentiment, and were likely to have occurred because of tariff-related declines in the stock market.
Other more recent data on US travel continues to deteriorate and "will be a drag on Q2 GDP", says Sweet.
Meanwhile, US pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, above the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.0%.
The US goods trade deficit rose to $96.7 billion from $87 billion, way above the consensus estimate of $86.1 billion, while durable goods orders jumped by 16.4%, well above the consensus of 8.5%.
These economic indicators for May, says Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics, "strengthen our conviction that headline GDP rose at a roughly 3% pace in Q2."
That said, Allen adds, these numbers were probably flattered by the unwinding of the tariff-related distortions that artificially depressed headline Q1 GDP growth, "rather than reflecting genuine resilience".
He said the surge in headline durable goods orders was almost entirely due to a 334% leap in the volatile aircraft orders component, owing to a very strong month for Boeing, with a 0.5% increase in orders excluding transportation.
"Most measures of capex intentions, however, remained consistent in May with outright falls in underlying equipment investment in the near term, despite recovering from their April lows, reflecting the freeze on investment plans from tariff-related uncertainty."
3.08pm: Nvidia new high
After an initial wobble, Nvidia's shares have leapt over 1% to above $156 a share to grab a new all-time high and a $3.8 trillion market valuation.
The chip colossus set a closing high yesterday, with its previous one at $149.43 on 6 January 2025.
2.50pm: US stocks start higher, FTSE trundling along
US stocks opened higher, but gains have been trimmed in the first 20 minutes.
The Dow Jones has gained 0.5%, the Russell 2000 is up 0.4% and the S&P 500 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened 0.45% higher but has seen that cut to 0.15%.
Apple, Tesla, ASML and AMD are big tech in the red, while Nvidia is up another 0.3% to a new record valuation of $3.78 trillion.
Back in London the FTSE 100 is still up 0.3%, while in Frankfurt the DAX is up 0.4% and in Paris the CAC is just below flat.
2pm: IPO news for London
European software giant Visma plans to list in London early next year, with an expected valuation of around £16 billion.
The Norwegian company's British private equity owners, Hg, preferred the London Stock Exchange over Amsterdam for the initial public offering, the Financial Times has reported today.
Visma is a provider of business software, with over 1.4 million customers across the Nordics, Benelux, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America, generating annual revenues of over €2 billion.
The FT report said Visma chose to float in London because of its deep capital markets, but that Visma and Hg will only proceed with the London IPO as long as the UK government and London Stock Exchange follow through with reforms to listing rules.
1.10pm: City firm swings to profit
A litmus test of the health of the London markets from broker Cavendish PLC (AIM:CAV) ealier, with the small and mid-cap focused firm returning to profitability in the past year.
More than 100 transactions, totally roughly £2.7 billion, were completed during the year as Cavendish expanded its footprint with new offices in Manchester and Birmingham, while investing in client-facing roles and cutting non-employee costs.
Cavendish won 21 new quoted clients, completing 70 transactions, and accounting for over 60% of UK IPO capital raised in the past six months.
Co-chief executives Julian Morse and John Farrugia said acknowledged a 55% drop in public M&A revenues due to market conditions but said this was largely offset by a 23% rise in equity issuance, which provides the firm with higher quality, more sustainable revenue.
"Though average fees fell 13% due to the shift, increased equity activity supports longer-term growth," they added.
Cavendish has completed two IPOs in the new financial year, and looking ahead the co-CEOs said: "We have started the new financial year well. The M&A market and pipeline remain strong, supported by rising numbers of entrepreneurs exploring exits and increased private equity activity as firms seek to realise value across their portfolios."
They noted active relationships with about 150 UK private equity firms deploying over £50 billion in committed capital, including 20 firms that raised £7 billion in the past 18 months in sectors aligned with Cavendish’s focus.
11.56am: Ex-Barclays CEO Staley remains banned in London
A judicial review has upheld the City watchdog's decision to ban former Barclays CEO Jes Staley from holding senior management roles in the financial services industry, over misleading statements made over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The ex Barclays boss, who resigned in 2021, was fined £1.8 million by the Financial Conduct Authority and later lost out on £18 million in pay and bonuses from the bank after an investigation.
This found that Staley approved a letter sent to the FCA that contained misleading statements about the nature of his relationship with Epstein and a claim that the pair had ceased contact well before he joined Barclays.
In fact the Upper Trbunal review found Staley was in contact with Epstein just a few weeks before his appointment as Barclays CEO in December 2015 and was "in contact indirectly" in 2016 and 2017, with hundreds of emails between the pair showing that the two had "a close relationship over many years".
The tribunal agreed with the FCA's allegation that Staley acted with a lack of integrity, failed to be open and co-operative and to have failed to make appropriate disclosures to the FCA.
One plus point for Staley, is that the Tribunal reduced the fine to £1.1 million, as Barclays decided not to permit Staley to receive deferred shares to which he could have been entitled.
11.30am: FTSE 100 moving higher
The FTSE 100 and 250 are now flapping higher, despite the pound climbing to its highest against the US dollar in three and a half years.
The UK indices are up over 0.3% and almost 0.6% respectively.
Miners, financials, utilities, industrials and retailers are all on the up, with Anglo American top of the leaderboard, up over 5%, followed by 3-4% gains for 3i Group, Glencore, Antofagasta, St James's Place, JD Sports Fashion and Fresnillo.
As well as the lack of interest rates, something else is going to put Donald Trump in a bad mood when he wakes up.
It's a post from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, saying the US "entered the war because it felt if it did not, Israel would be completely destroyed", congratulating the Iranian people on victory, saying the US "gained no achievement from this war" and "surrender will never happen".
10.53am: Watch out for summer pullback in defence stocks
The European defence sector is still worth backing for long-term investors, says JP Morgan, especially if there is any of the usual summer pullback.
At the NATO summit, 30 European members made strong commitments to increase defence spending in the coming decade, though the bank expects some countries will increase defence spending more significantly than others in the next 5-10 years.
"We maintain a very positive multi-year view on the European Defence Sector (EDS) but also note that the sector has paused for breath every summer since 2022."
In terms of ranking the stocks, JP Morgan's strong preference is for the fast-growing German defence stocks, Rheinmetall, Hensoldt and RENK Group, as well as "undervalued UK defence stocks" Babcock International PLC (LSE:BAB) and QinetiQ Group PLC (LSE:QQ.).
10.16am: Some politics and social policy
Kier Starmer has given a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce's annual conference.
After starting with some conciliatory words for the UK business community, saying: "I fully acknowledge that this year, as we’ve had to fix the foundations of our country, deal with the unprecedented mess that we inherited, we’ve asked a lot of you."
He says the higher NIC payments and other changes have "made a huge difference", providing money to bring NHS waiting lists down, investing in skills and building new homes, roads and infrastructure "all vital for the long-term growth of our country".
The Prime Minister also heralds the "hat-trick" of trade deals the UK has bagged, with India, the United States and the EU.
And he says on the back of this Britain can become "the global champion for free trade".
He says the spending review earlier this month is a "clear shift" towards investing in the future of the UK, having "wiped the slate clean" and stabilised the economy.
However, while businesses are apparently set to thrive, a report from the Resolution Foundation this morning has calculated that "the rest of the decade looks bleak" for UK household disposable incomes.
Typical disposable incomes, after housing costs, are set to grow only 1% or £300 by 2030, with lower-income families' incomes projected to fall 1% at the worst end, and pensioners' incomes forecast to rise by 5% at the top, thanks to most not having a mortgage to pay. Families with children are set for no income growth.
Adam Corlett, principal economist at the foundation, says: "A stronger economy and the right policy interventions can brighten this outlook. Maintaining strong wage growth and returning to pre-pandemic employment levels would make middle-income Britain far better off, while ending the two-child limit can lift living standards for poorer families."
9.39am: Shell-BP buzz
Despite Shell's denials this morning, which followed a Wall Street Journal report after the close yesterday that Shell was holding "early stage" talks to acquire BP, the market is abuzz with the topic this morning.
UBS analyst Joshua Stone said the denial does not fully quell market speculation: "Shell may have denied talks are taking place but, no matter how unlikely a combination might be, we think the market will increase the probability of a deal happening, leading to an overhang on the shares in the near-term."
He added: "Any merger would require a rewriting of the Shell investment case which we believe, at least initially, would come to the detriment of shareholder confidence."
He also said BP shareholders, including activist investor Elliott, would likely demand a premium, complicating any deal. "Yet, the latest news likely means some level of acquisition premium lingers within the shares, providing a floor for the valuation, also noting the potential for other suitors to emerge."
Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty echoed these points, commenting that there "is a certain logic to the idea", citing Shell’s potential to boost its reserve replacement ratio by acquiring BP’s billions of barrels of reserves at a discount, plus cost synergies from removing duplication. However, he said "the cost of BP’s huge debt burden, low-value renewables businesses and Macondo liabilities" weigh against the deal, not to mention regulatory hurdles.
Kelty speculated that a move by Shell to list in New York might "give an uplift without the headaches of combining two massive organisations."
Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, described the takeover speculation as "second only to a bid for ITV as the perennial takeover talk that won’t go away."
He said: "Shell says it hasn’t been actively considering an offer, but that doesn’t mean it won’t do so in the future."
9.13am: Stocks edging higher, 'risk on' tone detected
The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both slightly higher after just over an hour of Thursday trading, up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, with other European benchmarket also in green.
Oxford Nanopore is top riser on the mid-cap index, after being highlighted in a Times Business article entitled 'Should I buy shares in Oxford Nanopore right now?' It seems many readers thought 'yes'.
Car dealer Inchcape is up 5.7% on the back of a very brief RNS statement, that includes no numbers.
After a tough first quarter, where organic sales fell 5%, trading over the first half as a while is described as having "consistent overall TIV [total industry volume] trends across Inchcape's markets... with limited tariff-related impact so far".
Americas saw a continued improvement in trading, Australia was "resilient" with ongoing headwinds in some other AsiaPac markets, while Europe & Africa continued an underlying outperformance of the market.
Analysts at Panmure Liberum said: "Decent update relative to market fears going into this, expect shares to nudge up."
Looking at markets overall, Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says "there is a risk on tone to markets on Thursday, bond yields are lower, stocks are up slightly and oil prices remain stable.
"Geopolitical fears are receding, and there are rising hopes for chunky rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months and years."
The dollar is in focus, she adds, after reports suggested that Donald Trump is considering announcing his pick for Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed chair as early as this autumn, even though Powell’s term as governor does not end until May next year.
"This could undermine Powell’s final months as chair. The consensus is that Trump will pick a dovish chair, who is likely to cut interest rates. This triggered a decline in US bond yields, which has weighed on the dollar."
The dollar index has fallen to a new three-year low, down 0.6% to 97.1 as declines overnight are extended.
"Trying to call a bottom for the USD seems pointless now, since it is closely linked to fiscal and political developments," says Brooks.
There has been a shift in bonds too, she adds. "There has been a large shift lower in yields in recent days, which is weighing heavily on the greenback.
"Bond yields in the US fell on Wednesday and yields across Europe are also lower. In the last week, the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen more than 18 bps, which is helping to topple the dollar.
"The dollar is the second weakest currency in the G10 FX space so far this week. It has made large declines vs the pound, as UK yields are likely to remain higher than their US counterparts for the foreseeable."
8.49am: Nvidia regains top spot and Meta wins AI case
Some big tech stories for the morning.
Last night, Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) hit a new record high, rising over 4% to cement its position as the world's most valuable company, above Microsoft and Apple.
Its share price hit $154.31, giving the chip group a $3.77 trillion valuation and reflecting growing investor confidence in its dominance in artificial intelligence, despite ongoing export restrictions to China.
New US export controls have effectively cut Nvidia off from the Chinese market, forcing a write-down of $4.5 billion in inventory.
Elsewhere, a US federal judge has dismissed a high-profile AI copyright lawsuit brought by 13 authors against Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), ruling the plaintiffs failed to "made the wrong arguments", suggesting that better-argued cases could succeed.
The case accused Meta of using the notorious 'shadow library', LibGen, to train its AI system, named Llama, without permission or compensation, with the company saying its AI outputs are transformative and don't reproduce the original works, arguing its actions fall under “fair use”.
Dismissing the case, the judge emphasised that the decision does not confirm the legality of Meta’s practices and applies only to the 12 authors involved, which include Jacqueline Woodson, Ta-Nehisi Coates and the comedian Sarah Silverman.
Meta shares fell 0.5% yesterday.
8.33am: Moonpig and PZ Cussons disappoint
Moonpig Group PLC (LSE:MOON) shares have fallen 7% after the online greetings cards group's CEO stepped down alongside reporting lower than expected revenue growth for the past year.
Alongside final results, CEO Nickyl Raithatha has handed in his notice after seven years in the role. He will continue to serve as CEO until a successor is appointed.
Sales for the year to 30 April were up 2.6% to £350 million compared to consensus of 4% growth as the strength of the core Moonpig brand was offset by continued declines in Greetz and Experiences.
Despite this slower growth, analysts at Shore Capital noted "good news" in profits, with adjusted PBT of £67.5m above consensus forecasts.
"Looking to the mid-term, the company continues to target a return to double-digit revenue growth alongside its high margins, with this growth likely requiring a turnaround in the fortunes of both Greetz and Experiences to support the strong core Moonpig brand," says analyst David Hughes.
Elsewhere, shares in PZ Cussons (LSE:PZC) fell 2% after the company decided not to sell its St Tropez self tanning brand.
Instead, it has set a "new strategic direction", bolstered by a partnership with US partner Emerson Group, which will provide customer management, logistics services and 'brand activation'.
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens higher, no big moves
The FTSE 100 has climbed 10 points to 8,729 in initial trading.
Miners, both gold and base metals, are helping lift the index, along with banks and utilities.
Top of the risers are Entain, up 2.9%, and JD Sports, up 1.6%.
7.45am: AB Foods to close bioethanol arm, slow start for African sugar
Primark owner Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) has begun consultations about winding down its UK bioethanol businesses and has restructured its Spanish sugar arm, after issuing warnings about profits from the subsidiaries two months ago.
The FTSE 100-listed group said its guidance for sugar remains unchanged from its April update, despite a slow start to its African sugar season.
With bioethanol arm Vivergo under significant pressure due to UK government regulations that it said were "made significantly worse" by the US trade deal that included tariff-free US ethanol imports, discussions had been taking place with Whitehall for a financial and regulatory solution.
Yesterday, the extended deadline for an agreement passed without resolution.
7.28am: Shell shoots down BP takeover reports
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) has comprehensively denied yesterday's Wall Street Journal report that it has held talks about potentially buying fellow oil heavyweight BP PLC (LSE:BP.).
After the WSJ reported on Wednesday that "early stage talks" had taken place, the FTSE 100 and New York-listed oil group said it has "not been actively considering making an offer for BP".
Neither, it added, has it made an approach to BP nor even held talks about a possible offer.
For further clarity, it added, "Shell confirms it has no intention of making an offer for BP".
7.15am: FTSE 100 set to start lower as markets in holding pattern
A slightly negative FTSE 100 start has been predicted for Thursday, with mixed markets around the world with a holding pattern in place as new catalysts are awaited.
The London index fell just over 40 points the day before to finish at 8,718.75, and futures are pointing to another 12 points loss at the open.
Overnight, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.25%, with its Nasdaq 100 sub-index hitting an intraday high mid-session, though the Dow Jnoes dropped 0.2% and the S&P 500 was as flat as can be.
The S&P's decline of -0.0003% was, according to Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, its smallest move in either direction since 2017, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield only moved -0.4bps as well.
"We’re now at a point where the focus is turning to several important catalysts over the next two to three weeks," says Reid.
The first, he says, is Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful' tax bill, which is currently working its way through the Senate, and the administration is trying to get it passed by Independence Day on July 4, meaning voting could start tomorrow.
"As well as the tax bill, the focus is set to swiftly turn back to tariffs, as the 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs ends in less than two weeks’ time on July 9," Reid adds, with what happens at that point still unclear as several countries remain in negotiations with the US.
After that, the June CPI report on July 15 is "likely to assume outsize importance, as that’ll be crucial for whether the tariff pass-through is being felt in consumer prices".
6am: What to watch on Thursday 26 June
Ahead of its trading update, outsourcer Serco Group PLC (LSE:SRP) shares recently got a lift from three contracts to support the Royal Navy...read more
Moonpig Group PLC (LSE:MOON) also reports finals with its shares trading near a three-year high, helped by a bullish year-end update in April that came with a £60 million share buyback.
The company said for the past year to April, revenues were between £350 million and £353 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25% to 27%, and mid-teens growth in adjusted earnings per share.
CEO Nickyl Raithatha said the group is benefiting from a long-term shift to online and expects mid-teens earnings growth going forward.
In macroeconomic news, Bank of England rate setter Sarah Breeden speaks in the morning as a panellist at the CityUK annual conference, with BoE governor Andrew Bailey speaking at midday at the British Chambers of Commerce global annual conference.
The CBI retailing reported sales are due at 11am, but economists say that they have been erratic and a poor predictor of movements in official retail
sales.
Announcements expected:
Trading update: Inchcape, Serco Group, Time Finance
Interims: Patria Private Equity Trust, Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust
Finals: Cake Box Holdings, Foresight Group Holdings, James Latham, Moonpig Group, Volex
Economic announcements: GFK Consumer Confidence (GER), Continuing Claims (US), Durable Goods Orders (US), Gross Domestic Product (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Personal Consumption Expenditures (US), Pending Homes Sales (US)
Ex-dividends to reduce FTSE 100 by: 5.69 points (IAG, BAT)