Citi’s latest note on copper suggests demand growth will slow down as we move through the third quarter of 2025.
The American bank's copper consumption tracker showed a strong 6.1% year-on-year increase in April, thanks mainly to early demand for solar projects in China and electric vehicle growth, also led by China.
These factors helped offset weaker demand in other regions.
However, Citi expects this momentum to fade as the third quarter approaches.
Rising US tariffs and the winding down of China’s solar installation surge are likely to weigh on demand.
Manufacturing sentiment around the world slipped further into contraction in May, reflecting ongoing business uncertainty, especially around when and how US tariffs will impact trade and growth.
Given these headwinds, Citi anticipates base metals prices, including copper, could ease by around 10% below current spot prices through the third quarter.
But they also see this as a chance for medium-term investors to pick up copper on a dip.
For those interested in more detail, Citi’s recent global commodities market outlook for Q3 2025 digs deeper into these trends.