4:05pm: Fed decision no surprise
US stocks closed little changed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and remains on track for two cuts in 2025, in line with investor expectations.
The Nasdaq added 0.1% at 19,546 points while the S&P 500 was down 2 points at 5,981 points and the Dow Jones was down 0.1% at 42,172 points.
3:40pm: Proactive news headlines
- Standard Uranium has begun deploying ExoSphere Multiphysics surveys at its Davidson River project in the Athabasca Basin to enhance subsurface imaging ahead of summer drilling.
- Fineqia International has appointed Psalion Operations as investment advisor to help launch structured crypto ETPs through its European subsidiary.
- NanoViricides said its NV-387 antiviral drug could help fight emerging COVID-19 and bird flu variants, including the newly spreading "Nimbus" strain.
- Petro Matad reported its first revenue of $1.18 million from oil sales at the Heron-1 well in Mongolia’s Block XX.
- Coinsilium Group raised £4 million in an oversubscribed retail offer, citing strong investor interest in its Bitcoin-focused venture, Forza.
- Tiger Royalties and Investments surged after revealing that its new Tiger Alpha Bittensor Subnet is generating about $70,000 in monthly blockchain revenue.
- European Lithium stands to gain from a proposed $120 million EXIM Bank funding package that would support its stake in the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland.
- archTIS secured a A$263,185 contract with a UK aerospace and defence firm to deploy its NC Protect data security solution across Microsoft 365.
- Ionic Rare Earths is exploring a U.S.-based rare earth refinery through its Brazilian JV Viridion, aiming to strengthen non-China supply chains.
- Imugene received U.S. patent allowance for its onCARlytics virotherapy platform, CF33-CD19, securing IP rights until 2038.
- Resolution Minerals is advancing its Horse Heaven project in Idaho by aligning with U.S. critical minerals policy and pursuing federal support for development and permitting.
3:10pm: Powell signals patience
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank will remain patient on interest rates as it monitors inflation and trade developments, with recent tariff moves and shifting export patterns adding complexity to the economic outlook.
“Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, tariffs [are] a driving factor,” Powell said at a news conference following the Fed’s decision to keep its benchmark rate unchanged. Still, he noted that most measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal.
Powell acknowledged that sentiment in the economy has “soured,” reflecting concerns over trade policy, and said recent swings in net exports are “unusual” and complicate the interpretation of GDP growth.
“As long as we’re seeing the kind of labor market we have… we feel like the right thing to do is be where we are and learn more,” Powell said, adding: “No one holds these rate paths with a great deal of conviction.”
The Fed chair said policymakers expect to see a “meaningful amount of inflation in coming months,” but emphasized that waiting “a couple of months” could lead to “a smarter decision.”
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, said the Fed’s tone showed it is in no hurry to cut rates despite projecting two cuts this year.
“The Fed surprised the market with their comment that uncertainty is ‘diminished’, but didn’t surprise anyone by not cutting interest rates today,” Zaccarelli said. “Effectively they are sitting on their hands, waiting to see if tariffs increase inflation or the jobs market starts to falter.”
2:55pm: Proceeding with caution
The Fed's decision reinforced the central bank’s cautious approach as officials navigate competing risks from slowing growth and persistent inflation, according to Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist at Allianz Investment Management.
While the Fed held interest rates steady as expected, Ripley noted the bigger story was the lack of a clear signal on when rate cuts might begin. “The reality is there currently is not a strong enough consensus built amongst the Fed to pursue the next rate cutting campaign at the very least for the next few meetings,” he said.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary risks from tariffs and energy prices, Ripley highlighted that the Fed’s latest dot plot still pointed to two rate cuts this year. He also pointed to revised projections showing weaker growth and higher unemployment and inflation, suggesting policymakers remain torn between two competing concerns. “This tells us the concerns from the Fed around deteriorating economic conditions and rising inflation remain roughly balanced,” Ripley added.
2:15pm: Fed holds rates steady
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.5% on Wednesday, as widely expected, while signaling a slower path to rate cuts and revealing a sharply divided policy committee.
In updated projections, the Fed now anticipates two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025, followed by one 25-basis-point cut each in 2026 and 2027. The central bank also acknowledged that "uncertainty about the outlook has diminished, though it remains elevated."
Economic forecasts reflected a slightly gloomier view of the year ahead. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP growth projection to 1.4% from 1.7%, while raising its inflation expectations. Headline PCE inflation is now seen at 3.0%, up from 2.7%, and core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.8%. The unemployment rate forecast ticked up to 4.5% from 4.4%.
The decision highlighted a split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Of the 19 officials, nine projected fewer cuts than the median, including seven who foresee no further rate reductions in 2024 and two who expect just one.
1:27pm: Fed’s woes increase
“The Israel-Iran conflict adds another situation for the Fed to monitor, and seems to weight the table more heavily towards keeping rates as they are," said IG's Chris Beauchamp.
"Given the sheer variability of outcomes this year, it’s becoming almost impossible to make a decent estimate of where policy will be come year end, but the market’s expectation of a September cut still seems overly-optimistic.”
12:32pm: Stocks edge higher ahead of Fed decision
US stocks are modestly higher at midday Wednesday, as Wall Street braces for this afternoon’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and keeps a close eye on developments in the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.3%, the S&P 500 has gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq leads the pack with a 0.5% rise, buoyed by strength in tech.
Much of the day’s action—or lack thereof—reflects investor caution ahead of the Fed's latest policy announcement. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but traders are more interested in what the Fed’s updated economic projections might signal about the path forward.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped to 4.36%, reflecting a bit of flight-to-safety sentiment. Oil prices are steady after a volatile stretch, and gold continues to hover near record highs as investors hedge against uncertainty.
All eyes now turn to the Fed’s announcement at 2pm ET.
11:51am: Fed decision looms
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, even as inflation cools and economic data sends mixed signals.
While retail sales and industrial production slipped in May, employment remains fairly solid—and that, along with growing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty around trade and immigration, is keeping the Fed cautious.
Markets are closely watching for any hints about the future, especially in the Fed’s updated economic projections and the “dot plot,” which shows where officials see rates heading. Right now, there’s about a 63% chance of a rate cut in September, according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, but that could change depending on how the Fed revises its outlook for growth and inflation.
11:10am: Senate passes stablecoin bill
The US Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill aimed at regulating stablecoins, marking what Deutsche Bank called a watershed moment for the future of dollar-backed digital assets and US financial influence.
The bipartisan legislation would require issuers of stablecoins—digital tokens typically pegged to the US dollar—to back their coins with cash equivalents or short-term U.S. government debt, publish monthly reserve disclosures, and undergo annual audits if their market capitalization exceeds $50 billion.
Crucially, the bill gives stablecoin holders priority status in insolvency proceedings.
If passed by the House and signed into law, the GENIUS Act could position the US as a leader in digital currency innovation without launching a central bank digital currency. That stands in contrast to Europe’s MiCA regime, which limits non-euro stablecoins, and China’s digital yuan, which faces increasing competition.
10:40am: Trump repeats call for Fed rate cuts
President Donald Trump on Wednesday reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, saying it “would be nice” if rates were 2.5 percentage points lower.
“If the Fed would lower rates, we would buy debt for a lot less,” Trump said, adding that he doesn’t expect Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates at today's meeting.
Trump also took a jab at Powell, joking, “Maybe I should appoint myself at the Fed, can I do that?” and quipped, “Nothing is too late — ‘too late’ is Powell.”
9.55am: Nasdaq leads gains as Wall Street opens higher
US stocks have opened on the front foot, helped by easing bond yields despite Iran's vow to never surrender from the Israeli bombardment and potential support from the US.
The Nasdaq Composite started with a 0.3% gain, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are up 0.2%.
Steel producer Nucor is the top riser on the S&P, up 5% as Japan's Nippon closes its US Steel acquisition.
Texas Instruments is up 0.8% as it announced plans to invest more than $60 billion in US semiconductor manufacturing.
8am: Nasdaq futures point upward despite renewed Iran tensions
US stock futures were volatile as Wednesday's opening bell approached, with tensions remaining high in the Middle East as Iran rejected President Trump's call for "unconditional surrender", overshadowing the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision later.
Futures for the Nasdaq were up 0.1%, while those for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were only just above flat.
After the Nasdaq fell 0.9% yesterday, with the S&P and Dow dropping 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, futures had been pointing to a solid rebound overnight.
But there was a hit to sentiment after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued his first remarks since Friday, saying: "Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender.
"The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage."
Israel earlier said it had attacked 40 Iranian targets today, including missile infrastructure, storage sites and military operatives.
Meanwhile, Russia, a key partner of Iran, warned the US against wading into the conflict, with Moscow's foreign minister saying this "would radically destabilise the entire situation" and "we are milimetres away from catastrophe" due to daily Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Oil prices were retreating in the early hours, but during European trading WTI crude clambered back above $75 a barrel.
"With the Federal Reserve and a few other central banks poised to deliver policy updates in the next couple of days or, one might expect central bankers to be the main attraction in markets. Not so," says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at City Index.
"The real drama is unfolding on the geopolitical stage, where speculation is intensifying over a potential US military intervention in Iran."
The US dollar found fresh safe-haven appeal on Tuesday, but the dollar index has dropped 0.2% today back below 99.