Ahead of Whitbread PLC's (LSE:WTB) first-quarter update on Thursday, analysts were tweaking their expectations for the Premier Inn owner.
The Jefferies leisure and hotels team noted that the latest Smith Travel Research data for the UK economy and German economy & midscale segment indicates better performance versus company reporting.
"Data continues to be negative in the UK, and strongly positive in Germany."
UK revPAR for the economy hotel section declined 3.0% in May, "slightly better" than the weekly implied decline of 4.1% and April's 1.6% decline for Whitbread, while German revPAR grew 9.9% driven by higher occupancy.
If Whitbread continues to outperform the market by two percentage points, this implies the company could report slightly better revPAR of -1.2% than the -1.3% that the broker was expecting.
Analysts at Peel Hunt maintained a positive long-term view despite short-term forecast downgrades on the back of softer trading across the broader industry.
The broker cut its 2026 and 2027 adjusted profit before tax estimates by 9.0%, now expecting £452 million and £466 million respectively.
Premier Inn is expected to continue outperforming its peers, even as revenue and cost pressures affect the wider market, Peel Hunt said, helped by a planned £750 million-plus of gross investment this year, alongside £250-300 million in asset disposals and a £250 million share buyback.
Peel Hunt said: “While we are cautious about the pressures on forecasts and therefore on the share price in the short term, we continue to believe in the long-term outperformance potential of this highly efficient market leader, and reiterate our buy recommendation and 3,500p target price.”
Whitbread PLC owns and operates Premier Inn hotels in the UK and Germany, and is pursuing long-term expansion and efficiency-led value creation.