ASX 200 futures were up 5 points (+0.05%) at 8:30 am AEST on Tuesday, suggesting a flat-to-positive open after a volatile but ultimately steady start to the week. On Monday, the benchmark index closed just 1 point higher, buoyed by a sharp rally in energy stocks even as global geopolitical tensions loomed.
That resilience came despite rising Middle East conflict risks, with energy names like Santos (+11%) leading gains on news of a takeover approach. The Energy Index soared 5.2%, offsetting sharp losses in gold stocks following a broker downgrade of Northern Star Resources.
The ASX Small Ordinaries index edged 0.02% higher on Tuesday to 3,256.80, with investors continuing to back emerging names despite global uncertainty.
Wall Street recovers as oil eases and conflict fears abate
US markets bounced back overnight, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.94%, the Dow rising 0.75% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing 1.52%. A pullback in oil prices helped restore risk appetite, amid signs that Iran is open to talks following last week’s flare-up with Israel. While Israeli leaders remain defiant, the market read the weekend developments as a sign the conflict may stay contained — for now.
Uranium stocks led the rally as Sprott announced plans to purchase US$100 million worth of physical uranium, triggering a 5.3% surge in the Global X Uranium ETF to its highest close since 2013. Bitcoin also continued its run, up nearly 4% to US$108,600.
Meanwhile, IPOs are enjoying their strongest debut momentum in more than three years, while traders continue to parse central bank outlooks ahead of a crucial week of policy meetings.
Commodities and currencies
Oil prices reversed sharply, with WTI down 2.06% to US$71.48 and Brent falling 1.63% to US$73.02 as traders dialled back supply shock bets. The Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint for global oil flows — remains open despite recent military exchanges.
Gold slipped 1.4% to US$3,384.67 as risk appetite improved, while copper jumped 1.4% to US$9,613. The Australian dollar rose 0.53% to US$0.6524 on broad risk-on sentiment.
Paladin, Deep Yellow and Boss Energy all posted double-digit gains on Monday as news broke that Sprott will acquire US$100 million in physical uranium. The move was seen as a strong price support signal, further helped by Amazon’s A$20 billion data centre announcement, which has positive implications for domestic nuclear energy demand.
On the radar
The Bank of Japan delivers its rate decision at 1:00 pm AEST. No change is expected, but traders will scrutinise any guidance on tapering bond purchases. And central banks in Europe, the UK and Switzerland are also meeting this week, with rates widely expected to hold amid geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.
US retail sales data due tonight could offer clues on consumer strength heading into the second half.
In broader ASX company news, mining services stocks were in focus after Emeco, Macmahon and Perenti all reaffirmed their FY25 guidance, pointing to steady earnings and strong work pipelines. Southern Cross Electrical announced new airport and data centre contracts worth more than $70 million, while Apollo Global offloaded a 4.8% stake in Challenger at $7.45 a share.
In early small-caps action today:
- D3 Energy Ltd (ASX:D3E, OTCQB:DNRGF) is acquiring two helium and hydrogen exploration permits in South Australia’s Arckaringa Basin via the purchase of Unleash Energy Pty Ltd.
- Element 25 Ltd (ASX:E25, OTCQX:ELMTF) has secured a $50 million senior debt facility from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) to support expansion of its Butcherbird Manganese Project in WA.