- FTSE 100 closes at 8,875
- Entain surges after upping BetMGM guidance
- Oil and gold prices in focus as Israel-Iran conflict continues
4.59pm: FTSE bounces back
London’s FTSE 100 closed 0.3% higher on Monday at 8,875, buoyed by gains in Entain after the gambling firm lifted its earnings outlook, even as investors weighed escalating tensions in the Middle East and braced for key central bank decisions later this week.
Missile strikes by Iran on Tel Aviv and Haifa early Monday, in the latest round of hostilities with Israel, underscored the growing geopolitical risks. The violence, coupled with a surge in oil prices, added to broader market caution as leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) convened to address global economic uncertainty.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is set to announce its decision on Thursday, with economists widely expecting no change to the 4.25% Bank Rate. Still, analysts caution that the vote split remains a potential source of surprise, particularly after recent weaker GDP and labour data, and ahead of CPI revisions from the Office for National Statistics due Wednesday.
Across the Atlantic, traders are also watching for signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where officials will have to balance inflation concerns against rising global uncertainty driven in part by U.S. tariff moves.
Despite the uncertain backdrop, Entain shares rallied sharply after the company said it expects improved performance in the second half of the year, helping to lift the FTSE 100 into positive territory.
4.15pm: FTSE eases back from high
The FTSE 100 seems to be losing momentum as Monday winds down, not helped by falls for the index's oil heavyweights.
London's index topped 8,900 earlier, less than 10 from a new all-time intraday high, but has ebbed back a little since then.
It could still notch a new closing high in coming minutes though.
"Friday’s outbreak of volatility has given way to a rebound in risk appetite, as investors breathe a sigh of relief that the Middle East conflict now underway remains contained," says Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG.
"This might seem like excessive optimism, given the potential for the war to spiral into a new and much more dangerous phase. The sigh of relief uttered by equities was buttressed by reports that Tehran was seeking an end to hostilities, a sign perhaps that Israel’s ‘shock and awe’ campaign has had real impact in Iran’s corridors of power."
3.20pm: Oil and defence stocks slip
Oil prices are sliding more sharply this afternoon.
Brent crude futures are down 3.7% to $71.5 a barrel, having topped $77 on Friday. US WTI futures are down 3.7% to $70.4 a barrel.
Shell shares are down 0.1% and BP's have dropped 1.1%. Gold miners Hochschild and Endeavour are down 5.7% and 3.5%.
Defence shares are down too, with BAE Systems falling 1.1%, with QinetiQ down 1.8% and Babcock 0.2% lower.
2.55pm: Stocks up, everywhere
Stocks and shares are up on both sides of the Atlantic, as markets take a calmer view of conflict in the Middle East than they did at the end of last week.
While strikes continue between Israel and Iran, the Dow Jones has opened over 400 points or 1% higher, with the S&P 500 also up 1% and the Nasdaq jumping 1.2%.
In London, the FTSE 100 is up 0.35%, with European gains led by Spain and Italy's benchmarks, up 0.9% and 0.8%.
"It appears that market participants are less concerned about the possibility of the violence spreading throughout the region than they were last week," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
"It appears that most of the airstrikes and missiles have avoided the most significant parts of Iran’s energy infrastructure. But there are fears that this could change.
"In addition, Iran has threatened to disrupt, or even shut down, the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil is transported. But some analysts think that this is unlikely, given that this is an important route for Iranian oil to China, its major customer."
1.11pm: Oil prices pulling back
Oil prices are falling, with Brent crude down 1.1% to $73.4 a barrel, which has pulled the FTSE back from a high of 8,902 reached in the morning session.
While Entain and Metro Bank are top of the FTSE 350 risers, up 14.5% and 11.8% respectively, banks and airlines are also on the rise to help the FTSE's gains.
These might both be connected to oil prices and Middle East tensions.
Oil prices have come down, which is good news for airline costs, as well as lower geopolitical tension being better for holiday demand.
British Airways owner IAG is up 2.4%, easyJet is up 0.4%. Both had fallen last week, as had InterContinental Hotels Group, which is up 1.3% today.
However, while oil prices are coming down, they are still well up on recent lows, which could lead to CPI inflation remaining elevated and central banks holding off from interest rate cuts as much in coming months.
12.49pm: Zero-deposit mortgages on the rise again
‘Zero deposit’ residential mortgages have surged in the past year, according to new research, with £197 million of 100% mortgages issued last year.
Numbers of these 100% mortgages, where the buyer does not need to put down a deposit, increased 32% last year to 622, chartered accountant Lubbock Fine has found.
While such loans, where the value borrowed matched or even exceeded the property value in the case of Northern Rock's notorious 125% mortgages, were common in the lead up to the 2007 credit crunch and ensuing global financial crisis, the value borrowed under these 100% LTV mortgages is typically capped at 4.5 times the applicant’s annual salary.
To reduce risk, lenders require a guarantor – usually a family member – for the loan.
Lubbock Fine says demand for these products has been growing, driven by the cost-of-living crisis and rising house prices, but cautionsn that these mortgages "still carry risks for buyers", often with higher interest rates than traditional mortgages that make it harder to build up equity in the property quickly, creating chances of falling into negative equity and potentially making it difficult to remortgage if the Bank of England’s base rate comes down.
11.56am: FTSE 100 closing in on new high
The FTSE 100 is marching higher, up 0.5% and in new all-time high territory.
Gold and oil are both down on the day now, each retreating around 0.5%.
European stocks are higher too, led by 0.9%-plus gains in Milan and Madrid, with the DAX up 0.4%.
US futures are also pointing to a positive start on Wall Street, as markets revise down their initial worries about the fallout from the Israel-Iran fighting.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are up 0.4%, with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 0.5%. At the closing session of last week, the S&P fell 1.1%, the Dow 1.8% and the Nasdaq 1.3%.
11.12am: Oil industry consolidation?
It's not just tensions in the Middle East that are lifting mid- and small-cap shares today, but a takeover tilt at Aussie oiler Santos by an Abu Dhabi-led group that has jolted the oil sector awake, fuelling talk that energy dealmaking is back.
Shares in the Sydney-listed energy group ended the session 11% higher it confirmed a A$30 billion (£14 billion) takeover approach had been received.
The offer, from a consortium led by ADNOC’s investment arm and that includes US private equity firm Carlyle, values Santos at a 28% premium to Friday’s close, following two earlier indicative approaches this year.
Santos said it would recommend the bid to shareholders in the absence of a better offer, opening the door to what could become one of the largest inbound deals in Australia’s energy sector.
10.48am: Assura reviews PHP bid
The two-way bid battle for Assura Group (LSE:AGR) is continuing, with the healthcare property developer's board reviewing a revised offer from fellow FTSE 250-listed Primary Health Properties PLC (LSE:PHP, OTC:PHPRF) on Friday.
Having had a previous bid rejected in favour of one from private equity groups KKR and Stonepeak, PHP pointed out that not only was its cash-and-shares offer at a 1.7% premium to the PE group's bidco proposal, but it has now offered revised terms, including matching the consortium's offer acceptance threshold of at least 50% of votes, as well as offering potential acceleration of Assura's third-quarter dividend.
10.04am: Costain shares climb
Infrastructure group Costain Group PLC (LSE:COST) has seen its shares climb to a new five-year high after proposing a £10 million share buyback alongside a trading update.
Trading is in line with expectations, the DB pension scheme is in surplus and 'dividend parity' has been suspended.
Analyst Joe Brent at Panmure Libuerm says he is increasing his 2025 and 2026 earnings per share forecasts by 1% and 2%.
"Given increasing confidence in the business, we increase our TP from 150p to 170p," he says, stating that Costain is "well positioned to benefit from the government’s emerging infrastructure plan, and strength in regulated markets like water and energy."
Looking across markets, the FTSE 100 is continuing to climb, driven by banks, utilities and oil companies, while gold miners and tech are among fallers.
UK and US bond yields are mostly on the way down today, after picking up strongly on Friday.
"Bonds did not do what you would expect….many would have expected bonds to rally – as a ‘safe haven’ play and that would make sense," says market analyst Kenny Polcari at Slatestone, "except the surge in oil prices is causing some investors to reconsider a spark of new inflation and so bonds got sold".
This caused bond yields to rise at the end of last week and that continued in the early hours of this morning, though Polcari noted that the US 10yr was still "below the 4.5% rate that causes markets to get anxious" and the 30yr was also "still below the 5% level that causes angst".
#IDF: 'Approximately 100 military targets were attacked:
The IDF destroyed a third of the Iranian regime's missile launchers'
— Markets Today (@marketsday) June 16, 2025
#IDF: 'Approximately 100 military targets were attacked:
The IDF destroyed a third of the Iranian regime's missile launchers'
— Markets Today (@marketsday) June 16, 2025
On the FTSE 250, Metro Bank is top of the leaderboard, up 14% now.
William Hill owner Playtech is up 4.5% as investors read across from Entain.
9.18am: Metro Bank bid approach
Shares in Metro Bank Holdings PLC (LSE:MTRO), which earlier this year confirmed a return to the black after its difficult few years had culminated in a £900 million rescue deal, have surged 13% this morning after a report of private equity bid interest.
Pollen Street Capital, one of the owners of Shawbrook, has made an approach, Sky News has reported.
Shawbrook's owners were reported early this year to be looking at re-floating the lender, so could they be looking to merge the pair as a private company or maintain a listing?
8.46am: Oil prices and Trump's influence
While gold is pulling back as the market feels calm about wider escalation in the Israel-Iran fighting, oil prices have so far held at elevated levels, suggesting the market sees more risks for the energy market.
However, Donald Trump's influence could be key, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
As well as blocking an apparent wish by Israel to assassinate Iran's Ayatollah, Trump has also said that the two sides could find a resolution, but they need to fight it out first.
"The prospect of US involvement in this conflict used to spook markets, however, now there is a chance that Trump could have a holistic influence. Reports suggest that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, which suggests that he is already having a moderating impact on this conflict, although there has been no direct involvement by US troops."
In which case, says Brooks, only a major escalation in the conflict might lead to another large upswing in oil and gold prices.
"Financial markets are very good at absorbing geopolitical risk, and Opec+’s supply boost is also helping to cushion the blow.
"Back in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the oil price rose by more than 80% in the weeks and months before Russia invaded Ukraine, however, we may not cross the $100 per barrel level this time."
The key question from a geopolitical standpoint, she says, is what the US does next.
"President Trump has said that the US could intervene against Iran, and the UK has said that it will send fighter jets to the region. The EU is scheduled to have a meeting about the conflict this Tuesday, and this week’s G7 meeting is likely to be dominated by the situation."
Brooks notes that Trump has proudly touted his ability to keep a lid on oil prices, "and we do not think that he will want to entertain a conflict that could put huge pressure on the price of energy.
"Instead, we think that US involvement could see the attacks on Iran narrow to nuclear sites, after Israel said that it gathered intelligence that Iran had enough uranium to make 9 atomic bombs."
8.28am: Gold price falls as market feeling 'mild'
The market reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict is notably mild.
Brent crude oil surged from under $70 a barrel to $78 on Friday, and gold from $3,384 an ounce to over $3,440, but today oil is holding flat and gold has dropped off.
On the Middle East fighting, Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank observes: "While both sides have traded retaliatory blows, they have so far avoided the most extreme escalatory steps.
"In Iran’s case, they have so far avoided targeting US facilities in the region, which would very likely trigger direct US involvement."
Reuters has also reported that Donald Trump discouraged Israel from trying to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when an opportunity presented itself.
"So diplomacy may be on a knife-edge in the region," he says, and while negative scenarios indicate that oil could rise to above $100 a barrel or even $120, the market is satisfied to keep its powder mostly dry.
Reid said Deutsche's strategy team have found a typical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -6% in three weeks after the shock but then rally all the way back in another three.
"They believe this incident will likely be milder than this unless we get notable escalation as they highlight that equity positioning is already underweight," he adds.
8.15am: FTSE 100 starts higher
The FTSE 100 has trotted higher in the first deals of the week, up 17 points to 8,868.
Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) is top of the leaderboard, as the bookmaker lifted guidance for its BetMGM US joint venture.
Oil giants BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) are also helping the index higher as oil price remain elevated by the fighting between Israel and Iran, with Brent crude remaining around $75 a barrel.
Banks are also among the risers, with Standard Chartered up 2.75%, Barclays up 1.8%, NatWest 1.3% and Lloyds 1.1%.
7.58am: Peel Hunt back in the black
Mid-sized City investment bank Peel Hunt Ltd (AIM:PEEL) has reported a return to underlying profit for the past year, as revenues were lifted slightly amid a continued dearth of IPO action.
However, the company, which has 52 clients among FTSE 350 companies, did advise on two of the three "major" London IPOs and 15% of UK public M&A deals in the year to end March.
Revenues were increased 6% to £91.3 million and an adjusted profit before tax of £0.8 million was reported, compared to an adjusted loss of £2.7 million the previous year. Statutory losses before tax remained broadly flat at £3.5 million, mainly due to restructuring costs.
Chief Executive Officer Steven Fine says: "In challenging markets, we have delivered an improved revenue performance through our continued focus on diversifying our business and being a trusted advisor to high-quality clients."
7.35am: Entain hut-hut-hikes guidance
Ladbrokes and Sportingbet owner Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) has hiked the revenue and profit outlook for its US joint venture, BetMGM, after an extended period of "positive momentum".
For the full-year, the FTSE 100 group said it now expects net revenue to run up to "at least $2.6 billion", above the top end of its previous guidance range of $2.4-2.5 billion, with online sports and iGaming both predicted to make positive contributions.
At the bottom line, underlying earnings (EBITDA) are seen surpassing $100 million, compared to its previous indication that the JV would be "EBITDA positive".
7.16am: FTSE 100 called higher on Monday
The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week on the front foot, rebounding despite ongoing hostilities in the Middle East that have lifted oil prices to 10-week highs and gold back toward its all-time peak.
A gain of 10 points for London's blue-chip index was called on the futures market, after it ended last week on a down-note, falling 34 points to 8,850.63 as Israel and Iran exchanged missile and drone strikes.
US markets ended the week with sharper drops, as the Dow Jones fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq 1.3% and the S&P 500 slipped 1.1%.
Markets in Asia seem to have shrugged off much of the worry this morning, with the Nikkei up over 1% in Tokyo and India's Sensex up 0.7%, with smaller gains in China.
The stock market reaction the the Middle East conflict is "surprisingly muted", says analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
She says the Nikkei is being supported by a weaker yen and reports that Japan and the EU may step up cooperation on defence industry initiatives.
"European defense stocks remain in focus amid rising geopolitical tensions and questions over US commitments.
"In contrast, Chinese equities are under pressure following mixed economic data. Retail sales growth in May surprised to the upside at 6.4% (vs <5% expected), but investment and industrial production figures disappointed, likely reflecting slower exports and the impact of tariffs."
Monday 16 June
Expected announcements:
Finals: NextEnergy Solar Fund, Peel Hunt
Economic updates: Retail sales (CHN), Unemployment (CHN), Wage growth (EU)