Gold prices have stabilized in recent weeks after notching a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April, but UBS believes the consolidation may lay the groundwork for another move higher.
The pause follows a stretch of mixed US economic data, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and renewed uncertainty around global trade. Despite market volatility, gold continues to stand out as a portfolio diversifier amid elevated macroeconomic risks. UBS said that seasonal trading conditions, marked by lower summer liquidity, could amplify any renewed upward momentum.
Physical demand remains resilient. Central bank buying has held steady, while flows into gold exchange-traded funds have resumed after a lull. With investor interest strong and supply constrained, UBS sees conditions forming that could support another breakout in price.
Such a move would of course benefit major producers including Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM, TSX:NGT, ASX:NEM, ETR:NMM), Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX:AEM), and Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K), all of which maintain extensive operating leverage to spot gold prices.
Smaller developers may also find the environment increasingly favorable, and companies from all areas of gold’s value chain are finding ways to capitalize on the yellow metal’s rise.
In the US, developer US Gold Corp (NASDAQ:USAU), which is advancing projects in Wyoming, Nevada, and Idaho, could gain from improved project economics at higher prices. Its CK Gold Project in Wyoming and Keystone Project in Nevada are both positioned in prolific mining regions.
There's similar situations north of the border. North Bay Resources Inc. (OTC:NBRI), which is developing the Fran Gold Project in British Columbia, recently said the economics of its bulk tonnage deposit are compelling with gold above $3,100 an ounce. The company estimates a gross rock value of $50 per tonne—well above local processing costs—and has begun engaging engineering firms to assess mine planning.
And across the Atlantic, smaller producer Thor Explorations Ltd (TSX-V:THX, AIM:THX, OTC:THXPF) recently reported first-quarter gold sales of 22,750 ounces, generating nearly $62 million in revenue at a realized price of $2,720 per ounce from its West African operations. With hedges removed and all-in sustaining costs forecast between $800 and $1,000 an ounce, the company maintains guidance of up to 95,000 ounces for the year.
Investor exposure to gold is also growing through financial instruments. U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW), manager of the GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF, has seen strong performance in its gold equity funds so far this year as gold touches new record highs.
“Gold mining companies are rewarding investors with rising free cash flow (FCF), dividends, and strong returns, making them, I believe, a compelling opportunity,” CEO Frank Holmes told shareholders recently.
The firm’s GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE: GOAU) tracks producers, royalty, and streaming companies—often regarded as the “smart money” in the industry due to their disciplined capital management and historical outperformance.
While gold may be consolidating, other precious metals are taking center stage. Platinum has surged past $1,220 and is now flirting with the psychologically significant $1,300 level. UBS sees a near-term technical target at $1,340.
Open interest in platinum and silver has grown, while gold futures positions have eased—suggesting that some investors may be rotating into white metals, which carry more industrial demand exposure. Options positioning tells a similar story: gold and silver call interest has dipped, even as platinum calls gain traction.
Still, UBS maintains that the structural case for gold remains intact. If so, gold producers, explorers, and investors alike may be on the verge of another strong chapter.