4:05pm: Iran hits back
It was a rough day on Wall Street as rising tensions in the Middle East sent shockwaves through the markets.
The Dow Jones dropped 770 points, or 1.8%, to close at 42,198, marking its worst one-day percentage loss in months. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,977, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.3% to settle at 19,406.83. The small-cap Russell 2000 was hit hardest, shedding 2% to finish at 2,097.
Investors were on edge all day, but things really took a turn after reports that Iran had launched missiles toward Israel. Israel’s military said "all of Israel" was under attack, and local media reported a missile strike on the Defense Ministry HQ in Tel Aviv. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is expected to make a major announcement, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei blamed Israel for starting a war.
Iran also claimed that it had been in a diplomatic process with the U.S. over its nuclear program, but that Israel's actions had thrown that off course.
The news sparked a flight to safety—traders rushed into gold and government bonds, while oil prices spiked on fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt supply. With geopolitical risks suddenly front and center, investors are bracing for more volatility in the days ahead.
3:40pm: Proactive news headlines
- Tiziana Life Sciences (NASDAQ:TLSA) began patient dosing at Weill Cornell, the fifth site in its Phase 2 trial of intranasal foralumab for non-active Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis.
- Challenger Energy (AIM:CEG, OTCQB:BSHPF) shares rose 9% after Stifel reiterated its ‘buy’ rating and 50p price target, citing full-year results that confirmed the company remains fully funded.
- Mirriad Advertising (AIM:MIRI, OTCQX:MMDDF) gained 11% after Zeus Investment Management disclosed it now holds an 8.78% stake in the company.
- Challenger Energy (AIM:CEG, OTCQB:BSHPF) also reported a “transformational year” marked by a strategic pivot to offshore Uruguay and a farm-out deal with Chevron.
- Vinanz Ltd (LSE:BTC, OTCQB:VINZF) launched a £1 million retail share offer at 13.75p per share via the WRAP platform to broaden its investor base.
- Arrow Exploration (TSX-V:AXL, AIM:AXL, OTC:CSTPF) announced a £2.7 million share buyback program, with repurchased shares set to be cancelled.
- Allergy Therapeutics (AIM:AGY, OTC:AGYTF) presented early data at EAACI showing its peanut allergy vaccine candidate is safe and reduces allergic reactions in initial trials.
- Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML, OTC:RLMLF) is finalising a US OTCQB listing to raise its profile, attract investment, and support its Idaho-based critical minerals project.
3:05pm: Fed likely to hold steady in June
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting and to largely maintain its current messaging around the future path of monetary policy.
The bank said updated economic projections could show slower growth, higher inflation, and signs of a softening labor market in 2025, which may prompt Fed officials to scale back their expected rate cuts for this year. “Our baseline is that the median dot only shows one rate cut this year, though we admit it is a close call,” Deutsche Bank noted.
Chair Jerome Powell is not expected to offer firm forward guidance during his press conference, instead focusing on the high level of uncertainty facing policymakers. Analysts also flagged a range of potential topics for the Q&A session, including the effects of trade, fiscal, and immigration policies, the debate over the neutral rate, and Powell’s future at the Fed after his current term ends.
Additionally, Deutsche Bank said proposals in Congress to end the Fed’s authority to pay interest on reserves (IORB) could be discussed, but emphasized that such changes "wouldn't do what some think."
2:26pm: Stocks on the move
- Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) shares dropped over 13% after the company announced it would raise $850 million by selling 85 million shares at $10 each, below the prior closing price.
- Tiziana Life Sciences (NASDAQ:TLSA) began patient dosing at Weill Cornell Medicine for its Phase 2 trial of intranasal foralumab in non-active Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis, adding a fifth site to the study.
- AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares rose after the company secured long-term access to up to 45 MHz of spectrum in the US and Canada through a settlement with Ligado, Viasat, and Inmarsat.
- RH (NYSE:RH) shares surged nearly 20% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected Q1 earnings and reaffirming its full-year outlook.
1:28pm: AMD has Nvidia in its sights
AMD is turning up the heat on Nvidia, unveiling its powerful new MI350 AI chips and giving a sneak peek at the upcoming MI400 series during its recent Advancing AI event.
The MI350X and MI355X promise four times the performance of earlier models and come packed with 288GB of cutting-edge HBM3E memory—more than what Nvidia’s individual GPUs offer, though Nvidia still holds an edge with its dual-GPU setup.
AMD also rolled out its new Developer Cloud, making it easier for developers to tap into its AI hardware, much like Nvidia’s own cloud platform.
Looking ahead, AMD says its MI400 chips are coming in 2026 and will go head-to-head with Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs.
12:37pm: Markets still nervous
Stocks are under pressure midday Friday as investors digest fresh comments from President Donald Trump on rising tensions in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both off 0.4%.
Markets have been treading carefully after Israel’s reported strike on Iran, and Trump’s remarks are doing little to calm nerves. Speaking to reporters, Trump said he’s “not concerned” about a regional war breaking out but acknowledged uncertainty around a planned U.S.-Iran meeting set for Sunday. “It’s not too late for Iran to make a deal,” he added.
Trump also told the Wall Street Journal that an attack “would be great for the market, because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” a comment likely to stir more debate than reassurance.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, said he expects Iran to retaliate. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump told NBC that Iranian officials are reaching out to him directly to “discuss the situation.”
On the energy front, OPEC’s Secretary-General downplayed market concerns, saying there are no current developments in supply or dynamics that warrant any "unnecessary measures." Still, oil prices remain elevated amid the geopolitical backdrop.
11:55am: Stock declines muted
Oil and gold prices climbed while global stock markets dipped following Israel's unprecedented attack on Iran, with traders closely watching for signs of further escalation over the weekend.
Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at IG, noted that "the brunt of Israel's unprecedented attack on Iran has been most acutely felt by the oil traders with the oil price rallying by around 8%."
The initial market reaction saw oil surge over 10% and European natural gas jump 5%, while gold rose by about 1.5%. Stock declines were comparatively muted, with losses of 1% to 1.5%, as investors weighed the potential for de-escalation. Rudolph warned, “a protracted conflict in the Middle East is likely to lead to higher oil prices and increase inflationary pressures in the medium-term.”
Meanwhile, central banks are expected to keep interest rates steady in upcoming meetings, including those of the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England, as they monitor geopolitical risks and inflation. Rudolph added that April’s eurozone trade surplus narrowed, partly due to U.S. tariffs dampening exports.
11:10am: Consumer sentiment jumps
U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly jumped in June, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary index rising to 60.5 from 52.2, well above the forecast of 53.6.
Current conditions improved to 63.7 (vs. 59.3 expected), while expectations climbed to 58.4 (vs. 49.7 expected).
Inflation expectations also eased, with the 1-year outlook falling to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5-10 year outlook dipping to 4.1% from 4.2%.
10:35am: Middle East tensions test resilience
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have prompted caution in financial markets, but LPL Financial analysts say the overall impact may be limited—unless the conflict escalates significantly.
Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, noted that while "the risk of a broader military conflict certainly cannot be dismissed," the market response has so far been restrained. He emphasized that oil and gold serve as reliable hedges during such conflicts and pointed to historical resilience in U.S. equities during geopolitical shocks, with average S&P 500 drawdowns of just 5% and recoveries typically occurring within six weeks.
“Assuming no imminent recession, which is LPL Research’s base-case scenario,” Buchbinder added, “history shows that markets are roughly flat over the next month following these geopolitical and economic shocks, but frequently move higher over the following three, six, and 12-month periods.”
Kristian Kerr, Head of Macro Strategy, highlighted the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, though he sees a full closure as unlikely in the near term given Iran’s economic ties with China.
“Retaliatory actions against regional oil facilities by Iran or its proxies remains a risk,” Kerr said, warning that any move by Israel to target Iranian oil infrastructure would be “a market negative.” He pointed to $80 per barrel as a key threshold for crude oil, beyond which escalation could start impacting broader markets.
Kerr added that in a broader risk-off scenario, European equities may be hit hardest due to how “crowded certain pockets of the market there have become.”
9:51am: Geopolitical shock
Stocks opened sharply lower Friday as fears of a broader Middle East war rattled global markets.
The Dow Jones fell 512 points, or 1.2%, to 42,456. The S&P 500 slid 0.7% to 6,002, while the Nasdaq lost 168 points, or 0.9%, to 19,495. The Russell 2000 was down 1.3%, extending losses for small caps.
Markets are reacting to Israel’s surprise overnight strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets—part of what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Operation Rising Lion—sparking fears of a wider conflict. Iran responded with more than 100 drones aimed at Israeli targets and warned of “a bitter, painful fate.”
Oil prices surged 13% in early trade, with Brent crude climbing past $70 a barrel, stoking fresh concerns about inflation and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold also rose nearly 1% as investors fled to safe havens.
“This is a dangerous escalation between Israel and Iran,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “But long-term investors should not sell into fear. Rebalancing, not retreat, is the right move now.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that Washington had no role in the strike and reiterated that the attack was Israel’s decision. Still, tensions are spilling into financial markets just as investors were gearing up for summer rate cuts.
Economic analysts warned that if oil prices stay elevated, central banks may be forced to rethink their easing timelines. ING flagged risks to global LNG supply and broader inflationary pressures.
Around the markets:
- Boeing (BA) is under scrutiny after a 787 crash raised questions about aircraft configuration at takeoff.
- Chime Financial (CHYM) surged 37% in its first day of trading.
- META tapped Scale AI’s CEO to lead its superintelligence efforts.
- Coinbase (COIN) CEO called Bitcoin “the new refuge” amid soaring U.S. debt.
- China delayed approval for Synopsys’ (SNPS) acquisition of Ansys (ANSS).
- Thermo Fisher (TMO) is exploring the sale of part of its diagnostics division.
On Capitol Hill, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Angus King introduced a bill to ban prescription drug ads, while the CBO warned Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” could hurt low-income Americans.
As volatility spikes, market pros are advising discipline over panic. “These are the moments,” said Green, “that separate strategy from speculation.”
8:00am: Stocks set for steep decline on Israel air strikes
US stock futures pointed to a big decline after Israel launched air strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, further raising tensions in the Middle East and sending investors to the sidelines.
An hour and a half before the market opens, futures for the Dow Jones are down 1%, while those for the S&P 500 are 0.9% weaker and Nasdaq futures are 1.2% lower.
On Thursday, the Dow ended 0.2% higher, with industrials and financials leading the charge. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and the Nasdaq added 47 points to finish at 19,662.
"The news came after the close on Wall Street on what was otherwise a positive day, but even at this early stage, Dow futures are heading south in response to the attack," commented interactive investors' Richard Hunter.
"There was an inevitable rush to haven assets such as gold following the assault, while the oil price itself gained by more than 7% overnight, all but wiping out its losses for the year. Of particular concern is the likelihood of retaliatory measures which, if aimed at the Strait of Hormuz where around 20% of global flows are handled, would further potentially constrict supply."
The price of US crude jumped as much as 13%, trading past $77 per barrel overnight, while Brent also surged past $76/bbl, noted Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
"Prices have since pulled back slightly, but tensions are far from over," said added.
Gold, meanwhile, is up 1.2% at $3,425.37 an ounce.
In London, the FTSE 100 is down 0.2%, while the Xetra DAX in Frankfurt has shed 1.3% and the Paris CAC 40 is 1% lower.
Asian markets have also declined, with the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo closing 0.9% down, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong losing 0.6% and Shanghai's SSE Composite ending 0.8% weaker.