Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX, ETR:NFC) continues to impress analysts at Oppenheimer, who have boosted their price target on the streaming giant, citing its global scale, accelerating advertising business and strong financial trajectory heading into 2030.
The analysts upped their price targeting to $1,425 from $1,200 and repeated their ‘Outperform’ rating. This represents significant upside from Netflix’s share price of about $1,218 on Thursday afternoon.
“Currently, we see no scaled global streaming competitor, suggesting Netflix has a long subscriber runway, pricing power and robust advertising opportunity,” analysts wrote in a note to clients.
The new price target is based on 25x estimated 2030 EPS of $71.93, discounted four years at 7%, which analysts noted is “a premium valuation reflecting the company’s unique positioning.”
Oppenheimer projects Netflix will double its revenue and triple its operating income by the end of the decade.
They also expect $100 billion in cumulative share repurchases, approximately 20% of the company's current market cap, despite $130 billion in projected capital spending.
Near-term momentum is expected to be driven by a strong second-half content slate and recent price increases.
The analysts noted that viewership for Netflix’s top 10 shows and movies in April and May of 8.2 million hours exceeded all of the second quarter 2024 at 8.1 million, “suggesting even more efficient content.”
The firm also sees substantial upside in Netflix’s advertising-supported tier. With 94 million monthly active users in May and enhanced first-party ad-buying tools, Oppenheimer projects ad revenue to reach $2 billion in 2026 and $9 billion by 2030, a 57% compound annual growth rate.
“We expect positive commentary from next week's Cannes Lions international event,” they added.
Meanwhile, the analysts see ad-tier subscribers growing to 84 million by 2030, up from 28 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Ad-free subscribers are set to grow to 326 million from 274 million over the same period.
“Outlook remains ironclad,” the analysts concluded.