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The Markets
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Coverage of London’s small caps continues on proactiveinvestors.com
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Real Estate

Berkeley preview: is there room for new profit guidance?

Rounding out next week, housebuilder Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) will report final results, the first time investors will have heard from the company since March.

Shares in the FTSE 100 group are up over 20% since then, however, as mortgage rates have fallen and the government has loosened planning policy.

Berkeley said at its last update that the "change in mind-set" over planning was encouraging for the sector, but it was concerned about the impact of the new Building Safety Levy.

Analysts at UBS recently stated that they fel the market was overly harsh on the company's profit guidance for the next few years, seeing an "underappreciated opportunity to generate value" from its build-to-rent (BTR) plans.

At its March update, the company guided to at least £975 million of pre-tax profit over two years, with £525 million for the past year, but declining to £450 million for 2026.

"We think part of the reason for the valuation de-rating is the profit outlook for the next several years is relatively subdued, with Berkeley expecting modest profit decline in FY26," said the UBS analysts, suggesting a longer view is needed as "we think there is material upside in the mid-term".

Analysts at AJ Bell said they will be watching in the results for trends in completions, pricing, costs and "forward sales for reassurance (or otherwise) with regard to the fiscal 2026 target".

The current analysts’ consensus is higher than Berkeley's guidance, looking for £461 million in pre-tax profit.

In terms of completions, analysts currently expect around 4,000 in each of the years to April 2025 and 2026, compared to 3,521 last year. The overall average selling price is expected to drop to £611,000 and then £568,000, respectively.

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