UBS has raised its price target on Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) to 465p, up from 455p, as UK rail passenger volumes continue to recover.
The new target implies nearly 68% upside from the current share price of 277p, with analysts maintaining a 'buy' rating on the stock.
Data from the Department for Transport shows UK rail volumes in May were running at around 93% of pre-Covid levels.
That marks a 9% increase year on year, and UBS estimates that if these levels hold for the rest of the year, total market volumes could grow by over 6%.
Add in fare increases of nearly 5% and the total size of the market could be up more than 10% compared with last year.
Trainline is guiding for group revenue growth of 6 to 9% in the current financial year. UBS notes that the roll-out of contactless ticketing in the South East could shave around 1 percentage point off the company’s growth.
Even so, the Swiss bank has raised its forecast for ticket sales growth to 8%, up from 7% previously, citing stronger demand trends.
App usage, which drives much of Trainline’s direct business, grew around 4% in May, according to UBS Evidence Lab data.
The group’s share of the UK third-party ticketing market stood at 86% in April, slightly down from 90% a year earlier, but steady month on month. UBS also notes that competitors are gaining ground, with rivals’ share of app downloads rising from 36% to 44% between March 2024 and March 2025.
In Europe, the competitive picture remains mixed. Trainline’s app gained share in Spain in May, while competition edged up slightly in Italy. In France, the market is still in its early stages of liberalisation, though a new Trenitalia service between Paris and Marseille could drive demand in the second half.
Valuation remains undemanding. Trainline trades at around 10 times adjusted EV/EBITDA, and UBS sets its 465p target based on a discounted cash flow model using a 10.5% discount rate and a 3.5% long-term growth assumption.
Overall, UBS sees Trainline as well-positioned to benefit from rising rail volumes, even as competition builds at the edges.
The stock was down 1.5% at 271.80p.