Wall Street is heading into a high-stakes week, with investors closely watching renewed US-China trade talks, fresh inflation data, and a slate of key corporate events that could shape market direction following last week’s rally.
On Monday, senior US and Chinese officials—including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng—will meet in London in the latest round of negotiations aimed at resolving ongoing trade tensions. The talks come after April’s surprise trade truce, which had briefly buoyed market sentiment.
"The outcome of these discussions will be crucial for market sentiment at the start of this week," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. "A trade agreement between China and the US could calm fears about the economic fallout from US tariff plans."
Among the major issues on the table are China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals—critical for many US tech firms—and US limitations on Chinese access to advanced technology and student visas. A resolution could ease investor concerns around supply chains and geopolitical risk, especially for technology stocks that have recently powered market gains.
Tech will remain in focus this week, with Apple (AAPL) set to kick off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) on Monday. Investors will be looking for product updates and software innovations, particularly in iOS, macOS, and Apple’s Vision Pro platform, as the company continues to build momentum in AI and spatial computing.
Meanwhile, inflation will dominate the economic calendar, with May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings due later in the week. These reports could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates.
“Stocks may need a new driver to extend last week’s rally after investors scaled back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year,” Brooks noted. “The number of rate cuts from the Fed could be determined by the outlook for US inflation, which is released later this week.”
The Fed Funds Futures market now prices in fewer than two rate cuts by year-end, down from earlier expectations, amid signs of resilience in US growth. Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report, which showed the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, fueled a broad rally in equities. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.2% on Friday, and the Russell 2000 rose over 3% for the week, suggesting renewed investor interest in smaller-cap stocks.
"(As) the growth data remain unaffected by tariffs for now, inflation could hold the key for US monetary policy," Brooks said.
Big week for bonds
Investors will also keep a close eye on the bond market this week. On Thursday, the US Treasury will auction 30-year bonds—an event that could test investor appetite amid rising yields. The 30-year yield is currently near the 5% mark at 4.96%, and recent auctions have struggled to attract demand.
“This is a big week for the US bond market,” said Brooks. “A 20-year bond auction three weeks ago, which had lacklustre demand, triggered a selloff in US bonds and a surge in yields.” The outcome of Thursday’s auction could have broader implications for federal borrowing costs and market liquidity.
Oracle, Adobe earnings on deck
Rounding out the week are earnings from GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, ETR:ORC), and Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE), which will provide additional insight into the health of consumer and enterprise demand.
“Oracle’s results will provide an update on cloud infrastructure momentum, while Adobe’s will offer insight into whether consumers are willing to pay for AI tools,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“Last quarter, Oracle’s infrastructure business grew 50% on demand from major clients including Nvidia and OpenAI. However, the multibillion-dollar Stargate data center expansion has raised concerns about margins and whether the company is spending more on AI than investors are comfortable with.”
Put it all together—trade talks, inflation data, a major tech event, and a bond market test—and it’s clear that this week could set the tone for where stocks head next.