Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) is expected to report a 4.6% increase in UK like-for-like sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 on Thursday (June 11), according to a research note from Citi.
This projection is above the 3.6% consensus estimate from Visible Alpha and reflects strong consumer demand over March, April, and May, as indicated by data from Kantar.
Sales in the Republic of Ireland are also forecast to rise by 4.0%, matching market expectations.
Citi attributes this to strong customer retention and modest inflation.
Booker, Tesco’s wholesale arm, is projected to grow by 0.8%, benefiting from good weather, though gains are partially offset by structural labor cost pressures.
Across the UK and Ireland, Tesco’s total like-for-like sales are forecast to rise 4.0%, ahead of the 2.9% consensus. In Central Europe, like-for-like growth is expected at 3.2%, close to the 3.3% market estimate.
Overall, Tesco’s global retail sales are forecast to increase 3.9%.
Citi has kept its full-year earnings margin forecast at 4%, in line with market expectations.
This results in a projected annual operating profit of £2.9 billion, within Tesco’s guidance of £2.7–£3.0 billion. Citi has reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on Tesco shares, maintaining a price target of 395p.
The shares were flat at 388.2p.