The Australian sharemarket is poised for a solid rebound today, with ASX 200 futures up 69 points (+0.81%) heading into the open. A powerful rally in gold, oil and tech stocks overnight has helped offset renewed concerns over escalating US-China trade tensions.
Locally, attention will centre on a packed economic calendar. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes and quarterly company profits are due at 11:30 am AEST, while the Fair Work Commission’s minimum wage decision will offer further clues on how sticky wage pressures may impact the inflation outlook.
Wall Street stays resilient despite tariff nerves
Offshore, Wall Street shook off early weakness to close higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.41% to 5,936, the Dow Jones up 0.08%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.67% — thanks largely to renewed strength in Big Tech. Nvidia led the charge once again, pulling chipmakers and AI-related names higher even as fresh trade headlines injected more volatility into the session.
The latest flare-up saw President Trump accuse Beijing of breaching their recent tariff truce, vowing to double levies on imported steel and aluminium to 50%. China then accused the US of violating its side of the agreement by restricting chip exports and revoking student visas. Markets are now watching closely for a possible call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Despite the political crossfire, many investors are still leaning into AI growth themes, resilient corporate earnings, and hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year — particularly if trade disruptions begin to weigh more heavily on growth rather than prices.
ASX to take its lead from gold, energy and tech
After dipping 0.24% on Monday, dragged down by iron ore exporters reacting to the fresh tariff headlines, the ASX 200 is set to reverse course today. Local gold miners will likely be early beneficiaries of the overnight surge in bullion, while energy names could also catch a bid on higher oil prices.
And in a busy morning for corporate news flow, Judo Capital reaffirmed FY25 guidance, forecasting 15% profit growth with net interest margins tracking toward the top end of 2.9-3%, while Whitehaven Coal reconfirmed FY25 output guidance, with production tracking towards the upper end of 35-39.5 million tonnes. Treasury Wine Estates revised its FY25 EBIT guidance slightly lower to $770 million after the exit of a US distributor.
In small-caps action:
- International Graphite Ltd (ASX:IG6) is progressing development of its Collie Graphite Micronising Facility in WA, appointing Prosser Built for detailed design and advancing procurement of micronising equipment, with $4.5 million in state government grant support and initial sales already under way.
- Leeuwin Metals Ltd (ASX:LM1) kicked off Phase 2 drilling at its Marda Gold Project in WA, targeting extensions of high-grade gold mineralisation following strong Phase 1 intercepts, including 16m at 00 g/t and 8m at 3.04 g/t, as part of a broader 10,000-metre drill campaign planned for 2025.
Commodities surge as safe-haven demand intensifies
Heightened geopolitical risks helped propel a broad rally in commodities overnight, with gold soaring 2.8% to US$3,380.68 an ounce — its strongest level in nearly a month — as traders sought cover amid the growing list of global flashpoints, including tensions in Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East.
- Silver jumped 5.3% to US$34.75/oz, tracking gold higher.
- Oil (WTI) surged 3.7% to US$63.04/barrel as OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected production hike was overshadowed by concerns around Canadian wildfires and renewed Russian sanctions risk.
- Copper climbed 3.41% to US$9,667/tonne, supported by resilient demand despite China’s weaker factory data.
- Iron ore was down 3.2% to US$95.95/tonne.
Currency markets saw the Australian dollar rally 1% to US$0.649, outperforming after the US dollar index (DXY) slid to a six-week low on softening manufacturing data and falling bond yields.
Looking ahead
Markets will be closely watching today’s domestic data drops, RBA minutes and any developments on the global trade front as traders await a potential Trump-Xi call. Offshore, tonight’s focus shifts to the US JOLTs job openings report and Eurozone inflation figures — both of which could feed into central bank policy expectations heading into mid-year.
Volatility remains elevated as investors juggle geopolitics, commodities, AI exuberance and diverging monetary signals.