ASX 200 futures were down 17 points (-0.2%) at 8:30 am AEST on Friday, following a modestly higher finish on Wall Street, where optimism from Nvidia’s strong earnings gave way to renewed volatility around US tariffs and sluggish economic data.
Today’s trade is likely to remain subdued ahead of key local economic data at 11:30 am – including retail sales, private sector credit and dwelling approvals – as well as crucial US inflation figures later tonight.
Wall Street treads water as tariff saga twists again
It was a session of fading momentum on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industria Average gained 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.39%, but all three indexes gave back early gains as headline risk returned.
Markets initially rallied after a US court ruled that tariffs imposed under emergency powers during Trump’s presidency were illegal – but the optimism did not last. A federal appeals court swiftly paused that decision, allowing the levies to remain in place while the legal battle continues. The case could ultimately reach the Supreme Court, injecting more uncertainty into global trade dynamics.
Still, Nvidia's earnings helped buoy sentiment. The AI chipmaker reaffirmed a US$45 billion revenue forecast despite losing US$8 billion in Chinese sales due to export restrictions.
Economic signals were mixed. US GDP shrank 0.2% in Q1 on a quarterly basis, dragged down by a 1.2% rise in consumer spending – the weakest growth in nearly two years. Weekly jobless claims ticked up to 240,000, while pending home sales tumbled 6.3% in April.
Bond markets rallied, with the US 10-year yield falling 6 basis points to 4.42%, as investors increased bets on two Fed rate cuts this year.
ASX and small caps
The ASX 200 gained 0.15% on Thursday to close at 8,410, as investors reacted positively to a pause in the US-EU tariff standoff and a jump in gold prices. Defensive sectors outperformed, though sentiment was patchy.
On the data front, Australia's Q1 private capex disappointed, falling 0.1% versus expectations for a modest rise – a sign that investment growth may remain subdued into the 2026 financial year.
Small caps to watch:
- Nova Minerals Ltd (ASX:NVA, NASDAQ:NVA, OTC:NVAAF) has begun mobilisation for its 15,000-metre 2025 drill program at the Estelle Project in Alaska, with drilling to target feasibility work at RPM and Korbel, along with a maiden resource at the gold-antimony-rich Stibium prospect.
- Solis Minerals Ltd (ASX:SLM, TSX-V:SLMN, OTCQB:SLMFF) has mobilised a diamond drill rig to its fully owned Chancho al Palo copper project in Peru. The 2,500-metre program, supported by local contractor AKD International, will test several priority targets identified through mapping, sampling and geophysical surveys.
- Latrobe Magnesium Ltd (ASX:LMG, OTC:LTRBF) has confirmed it is nearing operational readiness at its Stage 1 Demonstration Plant in Victoria. The company has submitted final environmental documentation to the EPA and is now awaiting approval to begin ore commissioning, and labour negotiations are progressing.
Commodities and currencies
Risk sentiment remains fragile, keeping a firm bid under safe-haven assets.
- Gold added 0.96% to US$3,317.73/oz, recovering after three days of declines.
- Copper rose 0.6% to US$4.68/lb, though gains were capped by a stronger dollar and softer Chinese import demand.
- Iron ore inched up 0.1% to US$99.39/tonne after bouncing off recent lows.
- WTI crude slipped 1.5% to US$60.92/barrel ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where another production increase is expected.
- AUD/USD traded around US64.44 cents, up slightly but lacking real momentum after the local investment miss.
- Bitcoin slid 1% to US$106,357, with Ethereum up 0.5% to A$4,135.
Looking ahead
The domestic focus today is April’s retail sales, due at 11:30 am AEST. NAB tips a 0.4% rise, but wild weather could distort the results. Markets will also digest building approvals and private credit data as they assess whether household demand is cooling in the face of inflation and high rates.
Tonight, attention turns to the US Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – along with personal income/spending, and Canadian and German GDP and inflation readings.