A sharp correction in renewable infrastructure funds has RBC Capital’s analysts sifting through the rubble for takeovers.
Since 2022, the sector has shed nearly a third of its value, with eight listed funds either wound down or bought out.
The problem? Share prices have persistently lagged behind reported net asset values (NAVs), closing the door to fresh capital and leaving many portfolios too small to compete effectively.
This dislocation between public market prices and private asset values is pushing analysts to identify funds that could be ripe for mergers or take-private deals.
Be selective
RBC is particularly focused on solar and battery storage funds; smaller, more concentrated portfolios where upgrades or operational improvements could unlock hidden value.
Despite wide discounts, deals are not a given. RBC notes that average premiums paid in past fund takeovers (about 27%) may not be enough to make current share prices attractive for would-be acquirers, especially in solar.
Instead, the firm sees intra-sector mergers as a more viable route.
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund PLC (LSE:GRID), however, stands out. RBC argues that its battery assets could be upgraded to longer-duration systems at relatively low cost, creating room for significant upside.
Depending on the buyer’s assumptions, that could imply as much as 88% share price appreciation: well beyond the 15–35% range it sees for solar funds such as Bluefield Solar Income Fund (LSE:BSIF), Foresight Solar Fund Ltd (LSE:FSFL), and NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd (LSE:NESF).
GRID in focus
Notably, GRID’s portfolio is fully operational, entirely UK-based, and free from takeover penalties, which RBC says makes it a more logical bid target than peers like Gore Street (GSF), whose manager is entitled to sizeable fees in the event of a sale.
If consolidation does come, it may be driven as much by activist pressure as economics.
The launch of Achilles, a £54 million activist vehicle, suggests shareholders are growing impatient with stagnant valuations.
But for now, the main barrier to M&A remains pricing. Without deeper discounts or clearer cost synergies, RBC suggests many investors may still see more value in merging than selling.