A fresh physician poll has revived debate over the shifting balance of power in the weight-loss drug market.
According to Deutsche Bank, the snapshot shows a marginal swing in favour of Eli Lilly and Co's (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound over Novo Nordisk's (NYSE:NVO) Wegovy.
That has fed into the narrative that Novo’s commercial momentum in GLP-1 treatments is faltering, but the bank is not buying it.
Novo’s recent prescription growth has trailed expectations, prompting speculation that it is losing out to what many doctors see as a clinically superior alternative.
Tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Lilly’s Zepbound, has shown strong head-to-head results against semaglutide, the compound behind Wegovy and Ozempic.
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But Deutsche Bank argues the underperformance is better explained by supply dynamics than brand erosion.
The Danish drugmaker has prioritised semaglutide for its own distribution channels, constraining availability in some markets.
With that bottleneck beginning to ease, Deutsche expects a rebalancing to follow. Safety data, long-standing brand recognition and the launch of Novo’s next-generation combination therapy, CagriSema, should help close the gap and reassert the group’s position in the GLP-1 space.
Not a race lost, but a race paused
Physician preference, while important, does not operate in a vacuum. The poll in question gives a read on prescriber intent, but not on fulfilment, and in the current market, fulfilment is still shaped by supply.
Novo’s production constraints in the first half of the year have disproportionately affected the availability of semaglutide, temporarily tilting demand towards Zepbound.
Deutsche remains confident that Novo can bridge this short-term pressure through strategic stock allocation and by leveraging its broader metabolic franchise.
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The upcoming launch of CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide, is expected to open a new front in the battle for market share.
Early clinical data have shown promising results, and the therapy is likely to appeal to a broader patient population than either component alone.
Valuation still compelling
The share price reflects the recent slowdown. At DKK442.95, Novo trades well below Deutsche Bank’s target of DKK750, offering material upside.
The bank maintains its Buy rating, citing strong long-term fundamentals, a deep pipeline and increasing investor appetite for durable growth stories in healthcare.
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While the headlines may favour Lilly for now, Deutsche believes Novo’s hand is stronger than it looks. With manufacturing stabilising, new products on the horizon, and physicians still trusting the brand, the medium-term investment case remains intact.
Snap polls are useful. But in a market defined by scale, access and patient persistence, they are not the final word. For now, Novo remains in the race... and by no means out of contention.