Wall Street faces a packed schedule next week, with investors eyeing a crucial earnings report from Nvidia, fresh inflation data, and mounting tariff tensions, even as markets take a pause on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD), the world’s second-most valuable company, will report its quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday. The chipmaker is expected to post a nearly 66% jump in revenue to $43.37 billion, as artificial intelligence demand continues to drive record sales. But investor focus will likely center on the company's outlook amid growing export restrictions and new tariff threats.
“All eyes will be on Nvidia’s earnings report,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “The market is expecting another monster quarter for earnings, with the chip maker set to reassert its dominance, even with tariff threats.”
Brooks warned that while export controls to China have so far not dented Nvidia’s results significantly, the company’s CEO has expressed concerns that domestic Chinese rivals could eventually challenge its lead in AI chips. “Export restrictions into China are likely to fuel domestic production and innovation, which could threaten Nvidia’s global dominance in the advanced GPU market down the line,” she said.
Markets will also watch for signs of weakness in sales, particularly to China, where curbs on Nvidia’s H20 chip came into effect in January. While demand for its Blackwell chips is exceeding expectations, “weaker China sales could act as a counterbalance to the good news,” Brooks noted.
Earnings, data on deck
Aside from Nvidia, earnings from Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM, ETR:FOO), Dell Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:DELL), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST, ETR:CTO), and Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) are also on tap throughout the week, potentially offering further insights into corporate health and consumer demand.
Meanwhile, economic data releases will test investor sentiment already shaken by renewed trade tensions.
“The data docket picks up during this holiday-shortened week as investors will parse the hard data for April for any impacts from escalating trade tensions last month,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.
The highlight will be Friday’s release of the April core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.1% on the month, holding the annual rate steady at 2.6%.
“This is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and it will feed into the Fed’s view on where rates go next,” Brooks said. However, she added, “we do not think that this week’s inflation data will have a big impact on asset prices.”
Deutsche Bank echoed that view, saying the softer core PCE print was “largely due to volatile categories such as airfares and portfolio management,” and would keep the year-over-year figure “roughly sideways.”
Investors will also scrutinize Wednesday’s minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting, though Deutsche Bank expects no major revelations. “Recent Fedspeak has mostly reiterated that policy is in a good place and near-term rate cuts remain unlikely,” the bank wrote.
Other key data includes Tuesday’s durable goods orders – expected to show an 8.1% drop due to weak Boeing orders – and the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday, which may see revisions to imports, inventories, and inflation. Friday also brings updates on the U.S. trade balance and Chicago PMI.
Despite the data deluge, sentiment may remain fragile. “Consumer confidence... is expected to remain near its pandemic lows,” Deutsche Bank said, citing earlier weakness in the University of Michigan survey. Longer-term inflation expectations have ticked higher, even as energy prices cool and the immediate tariff threat wanes.
With big tech shares already under pressure, Nvidia’s results could set the tone. “The share price is weakening into this report, as big tech sells off on the back of higher volatility,” Brooks said. But if Nvidia delivers strong results and volatility eases, “the recovery rally for Nvidia could continue.”