Origin Energy Ltd has tightened its full-year guidance for its energy markets division for the 2025 financial year, projecting underlying earnings between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, up from a previous range with a low end of $1.1 billion.
The adjustment reflects strong generation performance, favourable market conditions and lower green certification costs, while the company attributed the improved outlook to operational enhancements and benefits from its wholesale portfolio. Increased electricity volumes and robust generation performance also contributed to the positive revision.
Loss expected for Octopus Energy
However, Origin also revised its 2025 full-year guidance for its stake in UK-based renewable energy business Octopus Energy, now anticipating an underlying earnings (EBITDA) loss of up to A$100 million, rather than a previously expected positive contribution of up to $100 million. Unseasonably warm UK weather in March and April and one-off impacts related to the government’s energy price guarantee subsidy from 2022 were key factors to the downgrade, it said.
“The UK recorded the third warmest April since 1884, which resulted in a significant decrease in electricity and gas volumes, adversely affecting earnings by approximately $50 million,” the company said.
Despite these challenges, Octopus Energy continued to exhibit strong growth and earnings, offset by continued investment in energy services and non-UK retail markets. In the 12 months to April 30, UK retail customers grew organically by more than 10% to 7.5 million, and non-UK retail accounts doubled to 2.5 million. The company’s Kraken platform expanded to about 74 million contracted accounts, including its first major US customer, National Grid.
“Notwithstanding FY25 earnings impacts, Origin continues to see rapid growth across many of Octopus Energy’s segments,” the company said.
Gauging energy markets
In its half-year results for the 2025 financial year, Origin reported a statutory profit of $1.017 billion, up from $995 million in the previous corresponding period. Underlying profit rose to $924 million, driven by stronger earnings from integrated gas and lower tax expenses, offsetting weaker performance in energy markets and Octopus Energy.
However, underlying EBITDA declined to $1.926 billion from $1.995 billion over the same period.
Looking ahead, Origin continues to invest in the energy transition, focusing on renewables, storage and expanding its customer base. It plans to develop up to 5 gigawatts of new renewable energy projects and has committed about $1.5 billion to battery investments.
Shares in Origin were trading down 4.71% to $10.53 at midday on Monday.