Deckers Outdoor Corp (NYSE:DECK) shares plunged 20% to about $100 after the HOKA and UGG parent company scrapped its annual outlook due to economic uncertainty.
Also weighing on the stock was weaker-than-expected first quarter revenue guidance based on pre-tariff estimates of $890 million to $910 million, below the Street consensus of $925.9 million.
This overshadowed a strong earnings beat for the fourth quarter, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1 significantly above estimates of $0.59.
Q4 sales rose 6.5% year-over-year to $1.02 billion, slightly ahead of the consensus $1.01 billion.
Analysts at Jefferies highlighted weakness at HOKA, with Q4 sales up 10% year-over-year, falling 4% short of the consensus and marking a continued deceleration from 24% growth in Q3.
Direct-to-consumer growth slowed dramatically to just 3% from 28% the prior quarter, with management citing softer in-store traffic and increased promotional activity.
While Deckers laid out “guardrails” for the year, including mid-teen percentage growth for HOKA and mid-single digit gains for UGG, the analysts noted the Q1 guide came in light on both revenue and EPS, reinforcing near-term caution.
Jefferies cut its fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 EPS estimates by 6% to 9%, pointing to slower HOKA growth, margin pressure from tariffs, and a potential recalibration of the company’s valuation multiple.
They noted potential upside if UGG continues to perform well and cost controls hold, but with growth normalizing and visibility reduced, the stock is "taking a breather."
Notably, the company is trying to increase UGG brand adoption amongst male customers and a year-round product assortment, having recently launched its first male-focused campaign in more than five years.
Jefferies maintained its ‘Hold’ rating and lowered its price target to $110, which suggested downside of 13% at the time of writing.