Auto Trader Group PLC (LSE:AUTO) releases full-year results on Thursday 29 May, with its share price cruising just below all-time highs set last autumn.
After a muted first-half update and months of radio silence, investors will be watching closely for signs of acceleration — particularly in the outlook for the year to March 2026.
Analysts at UBS said they were "cautious" into the upcoming announcement, where the company will provide its first guidance for the year to march 2026.
There are three "key debates" around the company, the UBS team said: product, stock (and related impact from the US tariffs), and the FCA investigation of the UK motor finance practices.
Stock "remains a headwind" and "this will likely continue" in FY26.
The Supreme Court made its decision on an appeal hearing held at the start of April, since when AUTO's shares have soared.
Analysts at AJ Bell noted that the FTSE 100 firm’s shares had stalled last autumn after a slight downgrade to average revenue per retailer (ARPR) expectations, and sentiment soured across consumer stocks post-Budget.
Since then, a spring rebound in retail names has lifted Auto Trader back into top gear, but with few company updates since November, Thursday’s report will have lots of details to be scrutinised.
Key metrics in focus will include:
- ARPR, which rose 6% to £2,852 in H1, helped by pricing and product upgrades.
- Retailer forecourts, which grew 2% to nearly 14,000.
- Physical car stock, which increased 2% to 448,000 units.
Still, the company fell short of expectations in one area last time. CEO Nathan Coe acknowledged that the stock component of ARPR growth was “lower than the original goal”, owing to strong demand and tight second-hand supply. Investors will want an update on whether those dynamics have shifted.
Consensus expects 6% full-year revenue growth to £605m and pre-tax profit of £379m, rising to £651m and £414m, respectively, in fiscal 2026. Operating margins are forecast around 69% despite a 2% drag from the Digital Sales Tax.
Expectations are also building for another dividend increase (to 10.5p) and updates on AI-powered “Co-Driver” tools and Deal Builder’s rollout — both seen as key drivers of future ARPR growth.